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🔵 politics

Volume

$1314.0M

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Strong consensus forming

Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?27%

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?17%

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?11%

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Balanced market conditions

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?18%

Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?17%

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?12%

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Strong consensus forming

Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?49%

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?36%

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?19%

Next French Presidential Election

Balanced market conditions

Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?45%

Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?15%

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?14%

Netanyahu out by...?

Strong consensus forming

Netanyahu out by June 30, 2027?69%

Netanyahu out by March 31, 2027?65%

Netanyahu out by end of 2026?46%

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?91%

Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?8%

Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?1%

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?2%

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30?1%

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?1%

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

Strong consensus forming

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?5%

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?1%

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24?1%

Pro Football: 2027 Champion

Balanced market conditions

Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship?14%

Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship?14%

Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship?12%

UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion

Balanced market conditions

Will another team win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?50%

Will Team H win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?50%

Will Team I win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?50%

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?98%

Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?1%

Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?1%

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

Strong consensus forming

US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?66%

US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?37%

US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?19%

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

Strong consensus forming

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 18?99%

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 20?99%

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?99%

Iran leader end of 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?91%

Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?4%

Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?2%

NBA: 2027 Champion

Balanced market conditions

Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals?22%

Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals?16%

Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?13%

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

Strong consensus forming

Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?10%

Putin out as President of Russia by March 31, 2027?6%

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?2%

New "Stranger Things" episode released by...?

Strong consensus forming

New "Stranger Things" episode released by March 31, 2027?5%

New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? 2%

New "Stranger Things" episode released by May 31? 1%

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

Strong consensus forming

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?3%

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30?1%

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?1%

F1 Constructors' Champion

Strong consensus forming

Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?99%

Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?1%

Will Red Bull Racing be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?1%

Iran leadership change by...?

Strong consensus forming

Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?23%

Iran leadership change by December 31?9%

Iran leadership change by November 30?3%

When will Bitcoin hit $150k?

Strong consensus forming

Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2027?25%

Will Bitcoin hit $150k by September 30, 2027?15%

Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2027?10%

EPL: 2027 Champion

Balanced market conditions

Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?74%

Will Team A win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?50%

Will Team B win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?50%

MLS Cup Winner 2026

Strong consensus forming

Will Nashville SC win the 2026 MLS Cup?25%

Will Inter Miami CF win the 2026 MLS Cup?17%

Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?15%

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?2%

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?1%

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by January 31?1%

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

Strong consensus forming

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?11%

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?3%

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026?1%

What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Will Ethereum reach $2,750 by December 31, 2026?99%

Will Ethereum reach $2,500 by December 31, 2026?99%

Will Ethereum reach $2,250 by December 31, 2026?99%

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

Strong consensus forming

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?5%

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?1%

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?1%

Which companies will be acquired before 2027?

Strong consensus forming

Will Warner Bros. Discovery be acquired before 2027?99%

Will iRobot be acquired before 2027?99%

Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027?99%

Highest grossing movie in 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?89%

Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?12%

Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026?1%

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

Strong consensus forming

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?10%

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by November 30?3%

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?1%

Fed Decision in December?

Balanced market conditions

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?77%

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?22%

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?1%

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?2%

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2025?1%

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?1%

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

Strong consensus forming

NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?13%

NATO x Russia military clash by November 30, 2026?4%

NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?2%

Worlds 2026: Winner

Balanced market conditions

Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026?52%

Will Team I win Worlds 2026?50%

Will another team win Worlds 2026?50%

Next Prime Minister of Sweden

Balanced market conditions

Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?54%

Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?44%

Will Jimmie Åkesson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?1%

Iran full airspace closure by...?

Strong consensus forming

Iran full airspace closure by December 31?28%

Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026?20%

Iran full airspace closure by June 30?1%

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

Balanced market conditions

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2027?70%

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2027?68%

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by September 30, 2027?64%

Bitcoin all time high by ___?

Strong consensus forming

Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?3%

Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026?1%

Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026?1%

Largest Company end of December 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?63%

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?35%

Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?1%

LALIGA: 2027 Champion

Balanced market conditions

Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?68%

Will Team A win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?50%

Will Team B win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?50%

Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Strong consensus forming

Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?99%

Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?98%

Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?98%

Will MetaMask launch a token by ___ ?

Strong consensus forming

Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2027?43%

Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30, 2027?26%

Will MetaMask launch a token by March 31, 2027?14%

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

Strong consensus forming

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2027?32%

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2027?18%

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by March 31, 2027?10%

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Will there be at least 3500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?99%

Will there be at least 4500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?99%

NBA: 2026-27 Rookie of the Year

Strong consensus forming

Will Player A win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?50%

Will Player B win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?50%

Will Player C win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?50%

Will Base launch a token by ___ ?

Strong consensus forming

Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2027?37%

Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027?14%

Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?3%

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?2%

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?1%

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?1%

How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?79%

Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?11%

Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026?3%

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?90%

Will xAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?26%

Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?11%

US military action against Cuba by...?

Strong consensus forming

US strike on Cuba by December 31?11%

US strike on Cuba by January 31?1%

US strike on Cuba by March 31?1%

IPOs before 2027?

Strong consensus forming

Cerebras IPO before 2027?99%

SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?99%

Wealthfront IPO before 2027?99%

Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?

Strong consensus forming

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?13%

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30?1%

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 19?1%

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?74%

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?22%

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?2%

Opensea FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Strong consensus forming

Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?5%

Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?5%

Opensea FDV above $300M one day after launch?5%

Anthropic IPO by __?

Strong consensus forming

Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?87%

Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?85%

Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?77%

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

Strong consensus forming

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?99%

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by December 31?99%

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?99%

Pro Football: 2027 NFC Champion

Balanced market conditions

Will San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?25%

Will Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?20%

Will Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?12%

Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?31%

Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?17%

Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?11%

Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30?1%

Will US withdraw from NATO by August 31?1%

Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?1%

Russia nuclear test by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?4%

Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by November 30 2025?1%

Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2025?1%

Puffpaw FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Strong consensus forming

Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch?84%

Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?79%

Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch?77%

Crude Oil all time high by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by March 31, 2027?20%

Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?8%

Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by May 31?1%

Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?2%

Will Russia invade a NATO country in 2025?1%

Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?1%

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?20%

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?5%

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?1%

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2027?7%

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?1%

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?1%

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

Balanced market conditions

Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?95%

Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US before 2027?2%

Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey before 2027?1%

Extended FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Strong consensus forming

Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?71%

Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?28%

Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?12%

Taipei Mayor Election Winner

Balanced market conditions

Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?68%

Will Candidate A win the next Taipei Mayor election?50%

Will Candidate B win the next Taipei Mayor election?50%

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?

Strong consensus forming

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31?6%

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by October 31?1%

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31?1%

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?65%

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?31%

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?4%

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

Balanced market conditions

Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?32%

Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?31%

Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?17%

What price will Bitcoin hit in November?

Balanced market conditions

Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in November?99%

Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in November?99%

Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in November?99%

Pro Football: 2027 AFC Champion

Balanced market conditions

Will Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship?25%

Will Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship?18%

Will Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship?14%

Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Balanced market conditions

Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch?97%

Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch?97%

Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch?94%

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Strong consensus forming

Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?91%

Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?9%

Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record?1%

Fed rate cut by...?

Strong consensus forming

Fed rate cut by April 2027 meeting?48%

Fed rate cut by July 2027 meeting?47%

Fed rate cut by June 2027 meeting?31%

US-Iran effective ceasefire continues through...?

Strong consensus forming

US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 5, 2026?99%

US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 6, 2026?99%

US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 8, 2026?1%

Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?5%

Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?1%

Will Hamas agree to disarm by November 30?1%

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

Strong consensus forming

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?36%

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30?17%

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?1%

Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?

Strong consensus forming

Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?9%

Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 15?1%

Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?1%

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

Balanced market conditions

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2027?42%

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2027?22%

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?11%

US strike on Mexico by...?

Strong consensus forming

US strike on Mexico by December 31?3%

US strike on Mexico by January 31?1%

US strike on Mexico by March 31?1%

Metamask FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Strong consensus forming

Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch?5%

Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch?5%

Metamask FDV above $500M one day after launch?5%

AI bubble burst by...?

Balanced market conditions

AI bubble burst by June 30, 2027?27%

AI bubble burst in 2026?8%

AI Industry Downturn by March 31, 2026?1%

Will Russia capture Lyman by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?5%

Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026?1%

Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31?1%

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?

Balanced market conditions

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2027?38%

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before June 30, 2027?22%

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before March 31, 2027?6%

Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by...?

Strong consensus forming

Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?2%

Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed in 2025?1%

Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by March 31, 2026?1%

OpenAI IPO by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will OpenAI IPO by June 30, 2027?46%

Will OpenAI IPO by March 31 2027?20%

Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?2%

Will Hezbollah disarm by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?2%

Will Hezbollah disarm by March 31?1%

Will Hezbollah disarm by April 30?1%

Spurs vs. Kings

Strong consensus forming

Spurs vs. Kings99%

Spurs vs. Kings: O/U 230.599%

Spurs vs. Kings: O/U 228.599%

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by...?

Strong consensus forming

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by December 31, 2027?37%

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30, 2027?25%

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by December 31, 2026?8%

Next Prime Minister of Spain?

Balanced market conditions

Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?88%

Will Person H be the next Prime Minister of Spain?50%

Will Person I be the next Prime Minister of Spain?50%

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?

Strong consensus forming

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?6%

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by July 31?1%

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by October 31?1%

Anthropic announces bankruptcy by...?

Balanced market conditions

Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?23%

Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?17%

Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?8%

Pump.fun airdrop by ....?

Strong consensus forming

Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31, 20264%

Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by June 30? 1%

Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by July 31? 1%

France declares state of emergency by...?

Strong consensus forming

France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?3%

France declares state of emergency by October 21, 2026?1%

France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?1%

What price will Hyperliquid hit in 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Will Hyperliquid reach $90 by December 31, 2026?99%

Will Hyperliquid reach $70 by December 31, 2026?99%

Will Hyperliquid reach $65 by December 31, 2026?99%

Nicolás Maduro released from custody by...?

Strong consensus forming

Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?2%

Nicolás Maduro released from custody by January 9, 2026?1%

Nicolás Maduro released from custody by January 31, 2026?1%

Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?74%

Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?24%

Will Wuthering Heights have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?1%

Ethereum all time high by ___?

Strong consensus forming

Ethereum all time high by March 31, 2026?1%

Ethereum all time high by June 30, 2026?1%

Ethereum all time high by September 30, 2026?1%