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🔵 politics

Volume

$1278.3M

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Strong consensus forming

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?19%

Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?17%

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?13%

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Balanced market conditions

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?23%

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?13%

Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?12%

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Balanced market conditions

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?51%

Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?49%

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?17%

F1 Drivers' Champion

Strong consensus forming

Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?92%

Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?3%

Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?2%

Fed Decision in September?

Balanced market conditions

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?88%

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?12%

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?1%

Brazil Presidential Election

Balanced market conditions

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?52%

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?45%

Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?2%

Next French Presidential Election

Balanced market conditions

Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?35%

Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?27%

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?12%

Netanyahu out by...?

Strong consensus forming

Netanyahu out by end of 2026?53%

Netanyahu out by May 31?1%

Netanyahu out by July 31?1%

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?83%

Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?12%

Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?1%

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

Strong consensus forming

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?7%

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?1%

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24?1%

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?4%

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30?1%

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?1%

Pro Football: 2027 Champion

Balanced market conditions

Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship?12%

Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship?11%

Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship?9%

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?94%

Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?5%

Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?1%

California Governor Election Winner

Balanced market conditions

Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?95%

Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?5%

Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026?1%

MLB World Series Champion 2026

Balanced market conditions

Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series?31%

Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?16%

Will the New York Yankees win the 2026 World Series?11%

Iran leader end of 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?82%

Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?5%

Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?3%

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Balanced market conditions

Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?54%

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?28%

Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?9%

Ballon d'Or Winner 2026

Balanced market conditions

Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?54%

Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?22%

Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?11%

UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion

Balanced market conditions

Will another team win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?50%

Will Team H win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?50%

Will Team I win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?50%

New "Stranger Things" episode released by...?

Strong consensus forming

New "Stranger Things" episode released by March 31, 2027?6%

New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? 3%

New "Stranger Things" episode released by May 31? 1%

Israel closes its airspace by...?

Strong consensus forming

Israel closes its airspace by September 30?97%

Israel closes its airspace by May 8?1%

Israel closes its airspace by May 31?1%

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

Strong consensus forming

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 18?99%

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 20?99%

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?99%

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

Strong consensus forming

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?8%

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30?1%

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?1%

F1 Constructors' Champion

Strong consensus forming

Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?96%

Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?1%

Will Red Bull Racing be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?1%

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

Strong consensus forming

US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?61%

US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?34%

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?14%

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

Balanced market conditions

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?77%

Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?19%

Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?3%

When will Bitcoin hit $150k?

Strong consensus forming

Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2027?30%

Will Bitcoin hit $150k by September 30, 2027?15%

Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2027?13%

Iran leadership change by...?

Strong consensus forming

Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?28%

Iran leadership change by December 31?16%

Iran leadership change by November 30?9%

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

Strong consensus forming

Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?13%

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?7%

Putin out as President of Russia by July 31, 2026?1%

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

Balanced market conditions

Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?9%

Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?8%

Will Save the Children win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?7%

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?5%

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?1%

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by January 31?1%

NBA: 2027 Champion

Balanced market conditions

Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals?22%

Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals?21%

Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals?12%

MLS Cup Winner 2026

Strong consensus forming

Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?18%

Will Nashville SC win the 2026 MLS Cup?15%

Will Inter Miami CF win the 2026 MLS Cup?14%

Which companies will be acquired before 2027?

Strong consensus forming

Will Warner Bros. Discovery be acquired before 2027?99%

Will iRobot be acquired before 2027?99%

Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027?99%

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

Strong consensus forming

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?8%

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by October 31, 2026?2%

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?1%

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

Strong consensus forming

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?11%

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?5%

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?3%

Highest grossing movie in 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?94%

Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?5%

Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026?1%

EPL: 2027 Champion

Balanced market conditions

Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?56%

Will Team A win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?50%

Will Team B win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?50%

What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Will Ethereum reach $2,500 by December 31, 2026?99%

Will Ethereum reach $2,250 by December 31, 2026?99%

Will Ethereum reach $2,000 by December 31, 2026?99%

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

Strong consensus forming

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?22%

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?14%

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?5%

Los Angeles Mayoral Election

Strong consensus forming

Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?66%

Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?35%

Will Rick Caruso win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?1%

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Balanced market conditions

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House53%

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House32%

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House13%

Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?

Strong consensus forming

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027?57%

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?40%

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?21%

Bitcoin all time high by ___?

Strong consensus forming

Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?7%

Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026?1%

Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026?1%

Iran full airspace closure by...?

Strong consensus forming

Iran full airspace closure by December 31?26%

Iran full airspace closure by September 30?8%

Iran full airspace closure by June 30?1%

Will MetaMask launch a token by ___ ?

Strong consensus forming

Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026?9%

Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025?1%

Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30?1%

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

Strong consensus forming

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?7%

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by April 30, 2026?1%

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?1%

Will Base launch a token by ___ ?

Strong consensus forming

Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2027?57%

Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027?45%

Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?11%

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Will there be at least 3500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?99%

Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?99%

Will there be at least 1000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?99%

NBA: 2026-27 Rookie of the Year

Strong consensus forming

Will Player A win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?50%

Will Player B win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?50%

Will Player C win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?50%

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?2%

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?1%

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?1%

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

Balanced market conditions

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2027?70%

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2027?67%

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2027?65%

How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?76%

Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?6%

Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026?4%

US military action against Cuba by...?

Strong consensus forming

US strike on Cuba by December 31?14%

US strike on Cuba by January 31?1%

US strike on Cuba by March 31?1%

Largest Company end of December 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?69%

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?24%

Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?8%

IPOs before 2027?

Strong consensus forming

Cerebras IPO before 2027?99%

SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?99%

Wealthfront IPO before 2027?99%

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place

Balanced market conditions

Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?76%

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?21%

Will Tarcisio de Freitas finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?1%

Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?

Strong consensus forming

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?20%

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31?9%

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?3%

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?37%

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?37%

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?18%

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

Strong consensus forming

NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?25%

NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?14%

NATO x Russia military clash in 2025?1%

Opensea FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Strong consensus forming

Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?20%

Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?18%

Opensea FDV above $300M one day after launch?18%

Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Strong consensus forming

Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?85%

Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?82%

Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?71%

María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?48%

Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by September 30?10%

Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?1%

Pro Football: 2027 NFC Champion

Balanced market conditions

Will Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?19%

Will Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?14%

Will Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?12%

Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?2%

Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30?1%

Will US withdraw from NATO by August 31?1%

Russia nuclear test by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?6%

Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by November 30 2025?1%

Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2025?1%

What price will Bitcoin hit in September?

Balanced market conditions

Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in September?99%

Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in September?99%

Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in September?99%

LALIGA: 2027 Champion

Balanced market conditions

Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?71%

Will Team A win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?50%

Will Team B win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?50%

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?52%

Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?47%

Will xAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?26%

Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?

Balanced market conditions

Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?90%

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?4%

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?2%

Puffpaw FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Strong consensus forming

Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?28%

Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch?26%

Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch?16%

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

Balanced market conditions

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?99%

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by December 31?99%

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?99%

What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in September 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September?99%

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in September?99%

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in September?99%

Epstein client list released by...?

Strong consensus forming

Epstein client list released by October 31?11%

Epstein client list released by July 31?1%

Epstein client list released in 2025?1%

MLB: 2026 American League Champion

Balanced market conditions

Will Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 American League Championship Series?27%

Will New York Yankees win the 2026 American League Championship Series?26%

Will Boston Red Sox win the 2026 American League Championship Series?12%

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?

Strong consensus forming

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31?15%

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by October 31?1%

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31?1%

MLB: 2026 National League Champion

Balanced market conditions

Will Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 National League Championship Series?39%

Will Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 National League Championship Series?25%

Will Atlanta Braves win the 2026 National League Championship Series?13%

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2027?12%

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?6%

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?1%

Berlin State Election Winner

Balanced market conditions

Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?63%

Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?28%

Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?8%

Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?21%

Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?1%

Will Hamas agree to disarm by November 30?1%

Pro Football: 2027 AFC Champion

Balanced market conditions

Will Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship?17%

Will Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship?16%

Will Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship?12%

Extended FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Strong consensus forming

Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?73%

Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?37%

Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?14%

Russia Parliamentary Election Winner

Balanced market conditions

Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?99%

Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?1%

Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?1%

Crude Oil all time high by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?16%

Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?2%

Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by May 31?1%

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?31%

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?6%

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?1%

Next Prime Minister of Romania?

Balanced market conditions

Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania?51%

Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?21%

Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania?5%

Fed rate cut by...?

Balanced market conditions

Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?7%

Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?3%

Fed rate cut by January 2026 meeting?1%

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

Balanced market conditions

Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?93%

Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US before 2027?2%

Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland before 2027?2%

Fed rate hike by...?

Strong consensus forming

Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?90%

Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?88%

Fed Rate Hike by April 2026 Meeting?1%

US strike on Mexico by...?

Strong consensus forming

US strike on Mexico by December 31?8%

US strike on Mexico by January 31?1%

US strike on Mexico by March 31?1%

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Balanced market conditions

Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?77%

Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?23%

Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record?1%

Which company has the best AI model end of September?

Balanced market conditions

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?96%

Will Company A have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?50%

Will Company B have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?50%

Metamask FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Strong consensus forming

Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?7%

Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch?7%

Metamask FDV above $2B one day after launch?7%

MLB: Home Runs Leader

Strong consensus forming

Will Kyle Schwarber hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?79%

Will Junior Caminero hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?4%

Will Aaron Judge hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?1%

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)

Strong consensus forming

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 18?97%

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 30?97%

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?96%

Anthropic IPO by __?

Strong consensus forming

Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?85%

Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?84%

Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?79%

Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by...?

Strong consensus forming

Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?2%

Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed in 2025?1%

Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by March 31, 2026?1%

Will Hezbollah disarm by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?10%

Will Hezbollah disarm by March 31?1%

Will Hezbollah disarm by April 30?1%

Will Russia capture Lyman by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?10%

Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026?2%

Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026?1%

MLB: Strikeouts Leader - Pitcher

Strong consensus forming

Will Dylan Cease strike out the most batters during the 2026 MLB regular season?39%

Will Jacob Misiorowski strike out the most batters during the 2026 MLB regular season?34%

Will Jesús Luzardo strike out the most batters during the 2026 MLB regular season?4%