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Top 10 Events

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🔵 politics

Volume

$907.4M

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Strong consensus forming

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?24%

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?8%

Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?6%

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Strong consensus forming

Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?49%

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?37%

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?26%

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Balanced market conditions

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?18%

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?16%

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?12%

2026 FIFA World Cup Winner

Balanced market conditions

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?15%

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?13%

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?11%

English Premier League Winner

Strong consensus forming

Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?89%

Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?12%

Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League?1%

2026 NBA Champion

Strong consensus forming

Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?38%

Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?14%

Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?11%

UEFA Champions League Winner

Strong consensus forming

Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?28%

Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?23%

Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?17%

La Liga Winner

Strong consensus forming

Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?79%

Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga?21%

Will Celta Vigo win the 2025–26 La Liga?1%

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?64%

Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?13%

Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?13%

What price will Bitcoin hit in March?

Balanced market conditions

Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March?99%

Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in March?99%

Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?29%

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of March?

Strong consensus forming

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?99%

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March?99%

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $75 by end of March?99%

Netanyahu out by...?

Strong consensus forming

Netanyahu out by end of 2026?54%

Netanyahu out by June 30?12%

Netanyahu out by April 30?4%

NBA MVP

Strong consensus forming

Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?85%

Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?7%

Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?7%

2026 NHL Stanley Cup Champion

Balanced market conditions

Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?20%

Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?14%

Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?11%

Augusta National Invitational - Winner

Balanced market conditions

Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament?17%

Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?9%

Will Bryson Dechambeau win the 2026 Masters tournament?7%

F1 Drivers' Champion

Balanced market conditions

Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?56%

Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?18%

Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?6%

US x Iran ceasefire by...?

Strong consensus forming

US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?79%

US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?67%

US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?62%

Eurovision Winner 2026

Balanced market conditions

Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?38%

Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?13%

Will France win Eurovision 2026?12%

Brazil Presidential Election

Strong consensus forming

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?45%

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?40%

Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?5%

US forces enter Iran by..?

Strong consensus forming

US forces enter Iran by December 31?64%

US forces enter Iran by April 30?53%

US forces enter Iran by March 31?17%

What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 by December 31, 2026?99%

Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026?99%

Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?99%

Fed decision in April?

Balanced market conditions

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?95%

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?4%

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?1%

Hungary Parliamentary Election Winner

Strong consensus forming

Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?66%

Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?35%

Will the Democratic Coalition (DK) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?1%

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

Balanced market conditions

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?17%

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31?1%

What will happen before GTA VI?

Balanced market conditions

Will Drake release Iceman before GTA VI?94%

New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?70%

New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?67%

Next French Presidential Election

Balanced market conditions

Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?25%

Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?21%

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?10%

What price will Ethereum hit in March?

Balanced market conditions

Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in March?99%

Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in March?99%

Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March?22%

NBA Western Conference Champion

Strong consensus forming

Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals?51%

Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals?22%

Will the Denver Nuggets win the NBA Western Conference Finals?12%

2026 NCAA Tournament Winner

Balanced market conditions

Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?21%

Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?20%

Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?18%

Backpack FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Balanced market conditions

Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?99%

Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch?99%

Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch?1%

Largest Company end of March?

Balanced market conditions

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?99%

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?1%

Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?1%

Which companies will be acquired before 2027?

Strong consensus forming

Will iRobot be acquired before 2027?99%

Will Warner Bros. Discovery be acquired before 2027?99%

Will Caesars Entertainment, Inc. be acquired before 2027?64%

French Ligue 1 Winner

Strong consensus forming

Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?94%

Will Lens win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?6%

Will Monaco win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?1%

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?14%

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2025?1%

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?1%

MegaETH market cap (FDV) one day after launch?

Strong consensus forming

MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?55%

MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch?41%

MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?33%

NBA Eastern Conference Champion

Strong consensus forming

Will the Boston Celtics win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?37%

Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?22%

Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?17%

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?30%

Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?27%

Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?19%

Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Balanced market conditions

Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?94%

Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?2%

Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?2%

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

Balanced market conditions

Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?10%

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?8%

Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?7%

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?22%

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?13%

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?13%

Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by March 31?

Strong consensus forming

Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?13%

Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?11%

Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?4%

Which company has the best AI model end of March?

Balanced market conditions

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?96%

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?1%

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?1%

NFL Champion 2027

Balanced market conditions

Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship?12%

Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship?9%

Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship?7%

Will Trump visit China by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will Trump visit China by June 30?70%

Will Trump visit China by May 31?63%

Will Trump visit China by April 30?26%

Colombia Presidential Election

Balanced market conditions

Will Candidate M win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?50%

Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?42%

Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?41%

MLB World Series Champion 2026

Balanced market conditions

Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series?28%

Will the New York Yankees win the 2026 World Series?8%

Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series?8%

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Will there be at least 1000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?99%

Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?99%

Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?98%

2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Winner

Balanced market conditions

Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election80%

Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election13%

Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election7%

edgeX FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Strong consensus forming

EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch?78%

EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch?51%

EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch?30%

Will Trump meet with Putin again by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will Trump meet with Putin by August 31?1%

Will Trump meet with Putin by September 30?1%

Will Trump meet with Putin by October 31?1%

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?

Strong consensus forming

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?81%

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?72%

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?56%

F1 Constructors' Champion

Balanced market conditions

Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?77%

Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?14%

Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?3%

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?

Strong consensus forming

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?77%

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?63%

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?46%

Bitcoin all time high by ___?

Strong consensus forming

Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?17%

Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?12%

Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026?4%

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

Balanced market conditions

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?48%

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?42%

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?31%

MLS Cup Winner 2026

Balanced market conditions

Will Inter Miami CF win the 2026 MLS Cup?24%

Will Los Angeles FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?19%

Will San Diego FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?10%

Opensea FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Strong consensus forming

Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?67%

Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?66%

Opensea FDV above $300M one day after launch?51%

Puffpaw FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Strong consensus forming

Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch?72%

Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?43%

Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch?16%

IPOs before 2027?

Strong consensus forming

Once Upon a Farm IPO before 2027?99%

Wealthfront IPO before 2027?99%

Cerebras IPO before 2027?91%

Iran leadership change by...?

Strong consensus forming

Iran leadership change by December 31?56%

Iran leadership change by June 30?35%

Iran leadership change by May 31?28%

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

Strong consensus forming

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?71%

Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?20%

Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?7%

California Governor Election Winner

Balanced market conditions

Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?60%

Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?11%

Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?8%

Elon Musk musk # tweets in April 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Will Elon Musk post 1360-1399 tweets in April 2026?8%

Will Elon Musk post 1400-1439 tweets in April 2026?8%

Will Elon Musk post 1280-1319 tweets in April 2026?6%

Slovenian Parliamentary Election Winner

Strong consensus forming

Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?98%

Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?1%

Will the Social Democrats (SD) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?1%

Elon Musk # tweets March 20 - March 27, 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?22%

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?21%

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?17%

Iran leader end of 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?43%

Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?14%

Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026?10%

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Balanced market conditions

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House48%

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House37%

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House16%

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?

Strong consensus forming

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?28%

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by March 31, 2026?6%

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by October 31?1%

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?9%

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?4%

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?1%

What price will Solana hit in March?

Balanced market conditions

Will Solana reach $90 in March?99%

Will Solana dip to $0 in March?50%

Will Solana reach $100 in March?30%

Epstein client list released by...?

Strong consensus forming

Epstein client list released by June 30?12%

Epstein client list released in 2025?1%

Will another country strike Iran by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will another country strike Iran by March 31?14%

Will another country strike Iran by March 7?1%

Fed Decision in June?

Balanced market conditions

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?87%

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?8%

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?5%

What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by December 31, 2026?99%

Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 by December 31, 2026?99%

Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?65%

Peru Presidential Election Winner

Balanced market conditions

Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?40%

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?16%

Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?16%

Based FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Balanced market conditions

Based FDV above $50M one day after launch?66%

Based FDV above $75M one day after launch?31%

Based FDV above $100M one day after launch?16%

Largest Company end of June?

Balanced market conditions

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?81%

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?8%

Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?7%

Elon Musk musk # tweets in March 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in March 2026?40%

Will Elon Musk post 1360-1399 tweets in March 2026?21%

Will Elon Musk post 1320-1359 tweets in March 2026?18%

Where will Trump and Putin meet next?

Strong consensus forming

Will Trump and Putin not meet?82%

Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country?3%

Will Trump and Putin meet next in a Gulf country?2%

US strike on Mexico by...?

Strong consensus forming

US strike on Mexico by December 31?20%

US strike on Mexico by January 31?1%

US strike on Mexico by March 31?1%

How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?32%

Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?29%

Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026?11%

Military action against Iran ends on...?

Strong consensus forming

Military action against Iran continues through March 31, 2026?83%

Military action against Iran ends on March 31, 2026?7%

Military action against Iran ends on March 30, 2026?3%

Will Silver (SI) hit__ by end of June?

Balanced market conditions

Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?99%

Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?99%

Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of June?99%

Will Gold (GC) hit __ by end of March?

Balanced market conditions

Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $5,200 by end of March?99%

Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $5,100 by end of March?99%

Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $5,000 by end of March?99%

Bundesliga Winner

Strong consensus forming

Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Bundesliga?99%

Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Bundesliga?1%

Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Bundesliga?1%

Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?35%

Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?21%

Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?11%

Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Balanced market conditions

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?47%

Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?24%

Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?14%

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?31%

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026?31%

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.25% at the end of 2026?12%

Claude 5 released by…?

Strong consensus forming

Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?30%

Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?3%

Will Claude 5 be released by December 31?1%

Iran military action against ___ by March 31?

Strong consensus forming

Will Iran strike Israel in March?99%

Will Iran strike Jordan in March?99%

Will Iran strike Saudi Arabia in March?99%

2026 Women's Wimbledon Winner

Balanced market conditions

Will Aryna Sabalenka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?26%

Will Iga Świątek be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?17%

Will Elena Rybakina be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?16%

What will SpaceX's public ticker be?

Strong consensus forming

Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?39%

Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR?14%

Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX?6%

March Inflation US - Annual

Strong consensus forming

Will annual inflation increase by ≥2.8% in March?97%

Will annual inflation increase by 2.2% in March?1%

Will annual inflation increase by 2.4% in March?1%

Serie A League Winner

Balanced market conditions

Will Inter win the 2025–26 Serie A league?83%

Will AC Milan win the 2025–26 Serie A league?9%

Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Serie A league?7%

Metamask FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Strong consensus forming

Metamask FDV above $300M one day after launch?40%

Metamask FDV above $500M one day after launch?32%

Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?29%

US strike on Cuba by...?

Strong consensus forming

US strike on Cuba by December 31?34%

US strike on Cuba by March 31?2%

US strike on Cuba by January 31?1%

Which company has best AI model end of June?

Balanced market conditions

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?57%

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?27%

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?9%

Kings vs. Hornets

High FOMO activity - surge in new positions

DeMar DeRozan: Points O/U 15.570%

Kings vs. Hornets: O/U 226.561%

Kings vs. Hornets: O/U 227.560%

Will Tim Walz resign by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026?9%

Will Tim Walz resign by June 30?3%

Will Tim Walz resign by January 31?1%

SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap

Strong consensus forming

Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?91%

Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?6%

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $900B and $1T at market close on IPO day?2%