🌍Geopolitics · Prediction Markets

Geopolitics Prediction Markets β€” Live Odds & Analysis

Track prediction market odds on international conflicts, foreign elections, diplomatic agreements, and global policy decisions. The world's events, priced in real-time.

πŸ“Š54active events
πŸ’°$426.7Mtotal volume
πŸ“š

What Drives Geopolitics Market Odds

Geopolitics prediction markets track diplomatic developments, military conflicts, elections in foreign nations, and international policy decisions. These markets react to breaking news β€” troop movements, summit announcements, sanctions decisions β€” often before traditional media fully covers the implications. They cover everything from NATO commitments to territorial disputes to foreign election results.

Geopolitics markets tend to have wider spreads and higher uncertainty than domestic markets due to limited information flow from conflict zones and closed political systems. This creates opportunities for traders with specialized regional knowledge. The crowd frequently underestimates the duration of conflicts and overestimates the speed of diplomatic resolution β€” two persistent biases that informed traders can exploit.

All Geopolitics Events

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54 events

Event
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?99%$82.9MNaNd
Venezuela leader end of 2026?64%$68.7M305d
US next strikes Iran on...?99%$54.6MToday
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?11%$29.0MNaNd
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?3%$21.2MNaNd
Oscars 2026: Best Picture Winner86%$20.2M14d
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?12%$13.7M30d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?25%$11.5MNaNd
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?38%$10.8MNaNd
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?12%$9.9MNaNd
Xi Jinping out before 2027?9%$6.7MNaNd
Will Trump meet with Putin again by...?8%$6.7M30d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?54%$6.3MNaNd
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?89%$5.3MToday
Oscars 2026: Best Director Winner93%$4.3M14d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?1%$4.2MNaNd
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?60%$3.9M121d
Oscars 2026: Best Supporting Actor Winner59%$3.9M14d
Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?4%$3.5MToday
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?45%$3.2MNaNd
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...?71%$2.9M305d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?48%$2.9M121d
Putin out as President of Russia by end of 2026?11%$2.5MNaNd
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by March 31, 2026?3%$2.4MNaNd
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...?14%$2.3M305d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?21%$2.3MNaNd
X banned in U.K. by March 31?3%$2.2MNaNd
Ukraine election held by...?23%$1.9MToday
Russian strike on Poland by...?3%$1.9MToday
US forces enter Iran by..?37%$1.9MNaNd
Oscars 2026: Best Supporting Actress Winner47%$1.7M14d
Israel and Syria normalize relations by...?14%$1.7M305d
Will US or Israel strike Iran first?37%$1.7MNaNd
Will Russia capture Lyman by...?87%$1.6M306d
Russian strike on a NATO member by...?3%$1.6M30d
Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?22%$1.6M122d
Russia strike impacts Kyiv municipality on...?99%$1.5MToday
US x Iran ceasefire by...?77%$1.5MNaNd
Xi Jinping out by June 30?4%$1.4MNaNd
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by...?25%$1.4M121d
# of seats won by PPLE in 2026 Thailand Legislative Election?53%$1.4MToday
Ukraine election called by...?20%$1.4MToday
Oscars 2026: Best Cinematography Winner69%$1.3M14d
Will Russia capture Rodynske by...?49%$1.3M30d
US strike on Cuba by...?43%$1.3M305d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?18%$1.3MNaNd
US strike on Colombia by...?18%$1.3MToday
US forces enter Venezuela again by...?27%$1.3M121d
Oscars 2026: Best Actress Winner93%$1.2M14d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?21%$1.2M121d

Frequently Asked Questions

Markets covering international events: foreign elections, military conflicts, diplomatic agreements, sanctions decisions, and territorial disputes. Traders price the probability of outcomes in real-time as global events unfold.