Geopolitics prediction markets on wars, peace deals, coups, and international crises. Russia-Ukraine ceasefire odds? Will Taiwan get invaded? Who wins elections abroad? If it's a global conflict or power shift, there's a market. Track war outcomes, diplomatic surprises, and all active geopolitics events.
Geopolitics prediction markets track diplomatic developments, military conflicts, elections in foreign nations, and international policy decisions. These markets react to breaking news - troop movements, summit announcements, sanctions decisions - often before traditional media fully covers the implications. They cover everything from NATO commitments to territorial disputes to foreign election results.
Geopolitics markets tend to have wider spreads and higher uncertainty than domestic markets due to limited information flow from conflict zones and closed political systems. This creates opportunities for traders with specialized regional knowledge. The crowd frequently underestimates the duration of conflicts and overestimates the speed of diplomatic resolution - two persistent biases that informed traders can exploit.
Clusters of related markets, grouped by topic
Odds are low at 9% for December 31. The second event puts March 31 at 59%.
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Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Odds for December 31 are contested at 40%. The second event puts Mojtaba Khamenei at 87%.
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Netanyahu out by...?
Nicolás Maduro leads at 71% odds. The second event puts March 31 at 59%.
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Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Odds for Marine Le Pen are contested at 46%. The second event puts No Hormuz Agreement at 97%.
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Next French Presidential Election
March 31 leads at 59% odds. The second event puts December 31 at 13%.
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US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
July 18 is almost certain at 99% odds. The second event puts September 20 at 99%.
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Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
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57 events