Geopolitics prediction markets on wars, peace deals, coups, and international crises. Russia-Ukraine ceasefire odds? Will Taiwan get invaded? Who wins elections abroad? If it's a global conflict or power shift, there's a market. Track war outcomes, diplomatic surprises, and all active geopolitics events.
Geopolitics prediction markets track diplomatic developments, military conflicts, elections in foreign nations, and international policy decisions. These markets react to breaking news - troop movements, summit announcements, sanctions decisions - often before traditional media fully covers the implications. They cover everything from NATO commitments to territorial disputes to foreign election results.
Geopolitics markets tend to have wider spreads and higher uncertainty than domestic markets due to limited information flow from conflict zones and closed political systems. This creates opportunities for traders with specialized regional knowledge. The crowd frequently underestimates the duration of conflicts and overestimates the speed of diplomatic resolution - two persistent biases that informed traders can exploit.
Clusters of related markets, grouped by topic
The odds of Netanyahu being out by December 31 are 36%. Mojtaba Khamenei is likely to be Iran's leader at the end of 2026 with 77% odds.
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Netanyahu out by...?
Nicolás Maduro is very likely to remain Venezuela's leader by the end of 2026 at 80% odds. Meanwhile, the odds of Donald Trump acquiring Greenland before 2027 are very low at just 5%.
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Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei is highly likely to be the next Iran leader at 77% odds. The Iranian regime's stability is uncertain, with a 10% chance of falling before 2027.
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Iran leader end of 2026?
Marine Le Pen has a 33% chance of winning the next French Presidential Election. The odds of the Left Party winning the Berlin State Election are higher at 37%.
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Next French Presidential Election
The odds of Trump acquiring Greenland before 2027 are very low at 5%. A US strike on Mexico is slightly more likely, with December 31 odds at 12%.
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Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Iran agreeing to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31 is unlikely at 14% odds. A US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31 is somewhat more likely at 30% odds.
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Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
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