Geopolitics prediction markets on wars, peace deals, coups, and international crises. Russia-Ukraine ceasefire odds? Will Taiwan get invaded? Who wins elections abroad? If it's a global conflict or power shift, there's a market. Track war outcomes, diplomatic surprises, and all active geopolitics events.
Geopolitics prediction markets track diplomatic developments, military conflicts, elections in foreign nations, and international policy decisions. These markets react to breaking news - troop movements, summit announcements, sanctions decisions - often before traditional media fully covers the implications. They cover everything from NATO commitments to territorial disputes to foreign election results.
Geopolitics markets tend to have wider spreads and higher uncertainty than domestic markets due to limited information flow from conflict zones and closed political systems. This creates opportunities for traders with specialized regional knowledge. The crowd frequently underestimates the duration of conflicts and overestimates the speed of diplomatic resolution - two persistent biases that informed traders can exploit.
Clusters of related markets, grouped by topic
Odds are low at 7% for December 31. The second event puts Mojtaba Khamenei at 83%.
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Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Odds for December 31 are contested at 53%. The second event puts Mojtaba Khamenei at 83%.
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Netanyahu out by...?
Nicolás Maduro is the strong favorite at 83% odds. The second event puts Yes at 3%.
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Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Odds are low at 35% for Marine Le Pen. The second event puts Linke at 63%.
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Next French Presidential Election
December 31 leads at 61% odds. The second event puts December 31 at 11%.
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US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
Odds are low at 8% for Yes. The second event puts December 31 at 5%.
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Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
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57 events