Geopolitics prediction markets on wars, peace deals, coups, and international crises. Russia-Ukraine ceasefire odds? Will Taiwan get invaded? Who wins elections abroad? If it's a global conflict or power shift, there's a market. Track war outcomes, diplomatic surprises, and all active geopolitics events.
Geopolitics prediction markets track diplomatic developments, military conflicts, elections in foreign nations, and international policy decisions. These markets react to breaking news - troop movements, summit announcements, sanctions decisions - often before traditional media fully covers the implications. They cover everything from NATO commitments to territorial disputes to foreign election results.
Geopolitics markets tend to have wider spreads and higher uncertainty than domestic markets due to limited information flow from conflict zones and closed political systems. This creates opportunities for traders with specialized regional knowledge. The crowd frequently underestimates the duration of conflicts and overestimates the speed of diplomatic resolution - two persistent biases that informed traders can exploit.
Clusters of related markets, grouped by topic
A US x Iran permanent peace deal is very likely by December 31 at 73% odds. The odds are higher for a peaceful resolution than for Nicolás Maduro being the leader of Venezuela in 2026.
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US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
The odds are 53% that Netanyahu will be out by December 31. The Iranian regime's fall by June 30 is very unlikely at just 2%.
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Netanyahu out by...?
The Iranian regime's fall by June 30 is extremely unlikely at 2% odds. Reza Pahlavi's potential return to Iran by December 31 has a slightly higher chance at 11%.
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Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has a 41% chance of winning the Brazil Presidential Election. Meanwhile, Park Chan-dae is heavily favored to win the Incheon Mayoral Election at 98%.
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Brazil Presidential Election
Nicolás Maduro is likely to be the leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026 at 67% odds. Meanwhile, there's a 53% chance of US military action against Cuba by December 31.
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Venezuela leader end of 2026?
The odds of Trump acquiring Greenland before 2027 are very low at 6%. Meanwhile, a potential conflict in Taiwan is also seen as unlikely with 7% odds.
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Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
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