Geopolitics prediction markets on wars, peace deals, coups, and international crises. Russia-Ukraine ceasefire odds? Will Taiwan get invaded? Who wins elections abroad? If it's a global conflict or power shift, there's a market. Track war outcomes, diplomatic surprises, and all active geopolitics events.
Geopolitics prediction markets track diplomatic developments, military conflicts, elections in foreign nations, and international policy decisions. These markets react to breaking news - troop movements, summit announcements, sanctions decisions - often before traditional media fully covers the implications. They cover everything from NATO commitments to territorial disputes to foreign election results.
Geopolitics markets tend to have wider spreads and higher uncertainty than domestic markets due to limited information flow from conflict zones and closed political systems. This creates opportunities for traders with specialized regional knowledge. The crowd frequently underestimates the duration of conflicts and overestimates the speed of diplomatic resolution - two persistent biases that informed traders can exploit.
Clusters of related markets, grouped by topic
The odds suggest Netanyahu will be out by the end of the year at 44%. A near-certainty is a ceasefire with Hezbollah by June 30.
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Netanyahu out by...?
A ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah is very likely by June 30, with 99% odds. The Iranian regime's fall is seen as unlikely by June 30, with just 7% odds.
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Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?
Nicolás Maduro has a strong chance to remain Venezuela's leader by the end of 2026 at 53% odds. Meanwhile, the odds of Trump acquiring Greenland before 2027 are very low at 8%.
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Venezuela leader end of 2026?
The odds of Trump acquiring Greenland before 2027 are very low at 8%. Meanwhile, the odds of China invading Taiwan by the end of 2026 are slightly higher at 9%.
Hottest
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
The odds suggest a very low chance of the Iranian regime falling by June 30. Reza Pahlavi's potential return to Iran by December 31 is slightly more likely.
Hottest
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Lula da Silva has a 40% chance of winning the Brazil Presidential Election. Colombia's presidential election is leaning heavily towards Iván Cepeda Castro at 95%.
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Brazil Presidential Election
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44 events
Netanyahu out by...?
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Brazil Presidential Election
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
Iran leader end of 2026?
How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
Next leader out of power before 2027?
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by...?
Iran military action against ___ by April 30?
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
US military action against Cuba by...?
Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30?
Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?
Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?
Incheon Mayoral Election Winner
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...?
Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
Will Russia capture Lyman by...?
Israel military action against Iran by...?
Xi Jinping out by June 30?
Next Prime Minister of Sweden
Israel and Syria normalize relations by...?
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?
Israel military action against Yemen by...?
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by...?
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by...?
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
Markets covering international events: foreign elections, military conflicts, diplomatic agreements, sanctions decisions, and territorial disputes. Traders price the probability of outcomes in real-time as global events unfold.