Geopolitics prediction markets on wars, peace deals, coups, and international crises. Russia-Ukraine ceasefire odds? Will Taiwan get invaded? Who wins elections abroad? If it's a global conflict or power shift, there's a market. Track war outcomes, diplomatic surprises, and all active geopolitics events.
Geopolitics prediction markets track diplomatic developments, military conflicts, elections in foreign nations, and international policy decisions. These markets react to breaking news - troop movements, summit announcements, sanctions decisions - often before traditional media fully covers the implications. They cover everything from NATO commitments to territorial disputes to foreign election results.
Geopolitics markets tend to have wider spreads and higher uncertainty than domestic markets due to limited information flow from conflict zones and closed political systems. This creates opportunities for traders with specialized regional knowledge. The crowd frequently underestimates the duration of conflicts and overestimates the speed of diplomatic resolution - two persistent biases that informed traders can exploit.
Clusters of related markets, grouped by topic
A US x Iran permanent peace deal is likely by the end of the year at 69% odds. The odds of Nicolás Maduro still being Venezuela's leader by the end of 2026 are slightly lower at 64%.
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US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
There's a 44% chance Netanyahu will be out by the end of the year. The Iranian regime's fall seems unlikely by June 30, with only 5% odds.
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Netanyahu out by...?
The odds of the Iranian regime falling by June 30 are very low at 5%. The regime is even less likely to fall by May 31, at just 1%.
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Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is the top choice to win the Brazil Presidential Election at 44% odds. The odds favor a clear winner in Colombia's Presidential Election, with Iván Cepeda Castro at 85%.
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Brazil Presidential Election
The odds of Trump acquiring Greenland before 2027 are very low at 7%. A separate event suggests a similar low likelihood of conflict elsewhere in the world.
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Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
China invading Taiwan by end of 2026 is very unlikely at 7% odds. Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by end of May is also unlikely at 5%.
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Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
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