Today's Signal

Once Upon a Farm

Updated: 3h ago

No clear favorite yet-Once Upon a Farm leads at 99% with Wealthfront close at 99%, signaling a competitive race.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~282 days
Total Volume
$4.7M
24h Change
+$122K
Active Markets
32
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Moneyshows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Once Upon a Farm
#1 Once Upon a Farm
100%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
Wealthfront
#2 Wealthfront
100%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
Cerebras
Cerebras✦ Surprise
92%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This event tracks whether there will be initial public offerings (IPOs) before 2027, specifically between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026. It matters because IPOs can have a significant impact on the companies involved and the overall business landscape. Market prices tend to move when there are updates from primary sources, credible news reports, or as the deadline for potential IPOs draws near. Prices may also shift based on new developments or announcements from major tech or finance companies.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If the listed company merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before the market resolves, the market will also resolve to "No". This market will resolve early if the listed company completes an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Nov 12, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Dec 31, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

Once Upon a Farm leads at 100%, with Wealthfront at 100% -- an unusually tight race -- only 0% separates them 9 months out. $4.7M has traded across 665 positions with 282 days until resolution.
$4.7M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. At this stage, volume reflects ongoing reassessment as new information enters the market.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Once Upon a Farm's 100% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 100% chance of that outcome -- extremely likely to occur. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the IPOs before 2027? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Once Upon a Farm IPO before 2027?100%-View market
Wealthfront IPO before 2027?100%-View market
Cerebras IPO before 2027?92%-View market
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?84%-View market
Discord IPO before 2027?77%-View market
Ledger IPO before 2027?70%-View market
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