Today's Signal

Marine Le Pen

Updated: 2 hours ago

Marine Le Pen is ahead at 38% with Édouard Philippe at 24%, but the race is far from settled.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~466 days
Total Volume
$136.9M
24h Change
+$3559K
Active Markets
41
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Marine Le Pen
#1 Marine Le Pen
38%
Widely followed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
Édouard Philippe
#2 Édouard Philippe
24%
Limited activity
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
Ségolène Royal
Ségolène Royal✦ Surprise
1%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking next french presidential election. Each outcome has its own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on outcomes they believe will happen, or NO on outcomes they think won't. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible sources.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on official announcements, news developments, and expert analysis. Trading volume of $136.9M shows significant market interest with 136,882 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

How accurate is Polymarket? See how markets compare to polls →

  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Nov 2, 2027
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Jan 1, 2028
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

Marine Le Pen leads at 38%, with Édouard Philippe at 24% -- a 14-point lead 1 year out. $136.9M has traded across 136,882 positions with 466 days until resolution.
$136.9M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. High volume on long-horizon events like this typically signals strong early conviction rather than reaction to recent news.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Marine Le Pen's 38% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 38% chance of that outcome -- unlikely but not impossible. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Next French Presidential Election event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Marine Le Pen38%$2672KView market
Édouard Philippe24%$1700KView market
Jean-Luc Mélenchon13%$1576KView market
David Lisnard7%$2378KView market
François Hollande6%$1951KView market
Gabriel Attal2%$2355KView market
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Go deeper

Basics

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Accuracy

Prediction markets vs. polls - who gets it right?

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Markets are live and updating as the race evolves.

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