Today's Signal

Marine Le Pen

Updated: 2 hours ago

No clear favorite yet — Marine Le Pen leads at 30% with Édouard Philippe close at 26%, signaling a competitive race.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~266 days
Total Volume
$118.0M
24h Change
+$3069K
Active Markets
41
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Marine Le Pen
#1 Marine Le Pen
30%
Widely followed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
Édouard Philippe
#2 Édouard Philippe
26%
Limited activity
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking next french presidential election. Each outcome has its own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on outcomes they believe will happen, or NO on outcomes they think won't. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible sources.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on official announcements, news developments, and expert analysis. Trading volume of $118.0M shows significant market interest with 118,028 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

How accurate is Polymarket? See how markets compare to polls →

  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Mar 1, 2027
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Apr 30, 2027
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

Marine Le Pen leads at 30%, with Édouard Philippe at 26% -- an unusually tight race -- only 4% separates them 9 months out. $118.0M has traded across 118,028 positions with 266 days until resolution.
$118.0M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. At this stage, volume reflects ongoing reassessment as new information enters the market.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Marine Le Pen's 30% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 30% chance of that outcome -- unlikely but not impossible. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Next French Presidential Election event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Marine Le Pen30%$1771KView market
Édouard Philippe26%$1226KView market
Jean-Luc Mélenchon14%$1139KView market
Gabriel Attal4%$1935KView market
François Hollande4%$1445KView market
Bruno Retailleau3%$1933KView market
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Basics

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Accuracy

Prediction markets vs. polls - who gets it right?

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Markets are live and updating as the race evolves.

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