Today's Signal

December 31

Updated: 16h ago

The market currently leans toward December 31 at 21%, with September 30 and June 30 trailing, indicating a fragmented and open outcome.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~236 days
Total Volume
$35.0M
24h Change
+$909K
Active Markets
4
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
December 31
#1 December 31
16%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
High
September 30
#2 September 30
13%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking will the us confirm that aliens exist by.... Each outcome has its own separate YES/NO market. Traders can position themselves based on their expectations. The outcome will be determined based on official economic data releases and central bank announcements.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on economic data releases, central bank communications, inflation reports, and employment figures. Trading volume of $35.0M shows significant market interest with 27,954 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

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  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Nov 25, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Dec 31, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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Frequently Asked Questions

December 31 leads at 16%, with September 30 at 13% -- an unusually tight race -- only 3% separates them 8 months out. $35.0M has traded across 27,954 positions with 236 days until resolution.
$35.0M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. At this stage, volume reflects ongoing reassessment as new information enters the market.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. December 31's 16% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 16% chance of that outcome -- unlikely but not impossible. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?16%-View market
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?13%-View market
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?5%-View market
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?2%-View market
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31?0%-View market
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30?0%-View market
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