Today's Signal

December 31

Updated: 5h ago

The market currently leans toward December 31 at 14%, but with a competitive race and no clear favorite, views can still shift significantly before the outcome is determined.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~-83 days
Total Volume
$14.1M
24h Change
+$365K
Active Markets
2
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Moneyshows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
December 31
#1 December 31
14%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
March 31
#2 March 31
1%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
High
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This event tracks whether something will happen within a certain time frame. It matters because the outcome could have a significant impact on the results. Market prices tend to move when there are updates from primary sources, credible news reports, or as the deadline gets closer. Prices also shift when new information or updates about the deadline become available.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between September 6 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Sep 6, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Dec 31, 2025
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

December 31 leads at 14%, with March 31 at 1% -- a 13-point lead resolving soon. $14.1M has traded across 13,821 positions with 0 days until resolution.
$14.1M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. With resolution near, traders are locking in final positions based on latest information.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. December 31's 14% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 14% chance of that outcome -- unlikely but not impossible. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?14%-View market
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?1%-View market
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2025?0%-View market
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?0%-View market
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