Live Tracker

Finance

Finance prediction markets on earnings, bankruptcies, M&A deals, and corporate drama. Will this company beat earnings? Does the acquisition go through? Who gets fired as CEO? If Wall Street cares, there's probably odds. See market expectations, spot earnings surprises, and explore all active finance markets.

Active Events15
Total Volume$289.6M
Top Event

What Drives Finance Market Odds

Finance prediction markets track corporate outcomes, earnings expectations, merger completions, and regulatory approvals. Key signals include quarterly earnings reports, analyst upgrades and downgrades, insider trading patterns, and deal flow news. These markets often move in sync with equity markets but provide binary outcome clarity that equity positions do not.

Finance markets appeal to traders who actively follow specific companies or sectors. Merger arbitrage markets (will deal X close?) tend to be the most accurately priced due to institutional participation. Earnings surprise markets offer opportunities when the crowd consensus deviates significantly from model-based expectations, especially in smaller-cap companies.

Deep Dives: Finance Topics

Clusters of related markets, grouped by topic

Economy

25 bps increase is the strong favorite at 89% odds. The second event puts 0 (0 bps) at 94%.

10 events$251.2M traded

Hottest

Fed Decision in September?

89%
Explore cluster →

Business

0 (0 bps) is almost certain at 94% odds. The second event puts NVIDIA at 69%.

4 events$68.8M traded

Hottest

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

94%
Explore cluster →

Big Tech

NVIDIA leads at 69% odds. The second event puts Cerebras at 99%.

2 events$14.5M traded

Hottest

Largest Company end of December 2026?

69%
Explore cluster →

IPOs

Cerebras is almost certain at 99% odds. The second event puts December 15, 2026 at 85%.

2 events$10.4M traded

Hottest

IPOs before 2027?

99%
Explore cluster →

Trump

Odds are low at 39% for 4.0%. The second event puts No change at 63%.

2 events$9.1M traded

Hottest

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

39%
Explore cluster →

Macro Indicators

No change leads at 63% odds. The second event puts ↓ 3.5% at 99%.

3 events$5.5M traded

Hottest

Fed Decision in October?

63%
Explore cluster →

Frequently Asked Questions

Markets covering corporate outcomes - earnings results, mergers and acquisitions, regulatory approvals, product launches, and analyst ratings. Often correlated with but providing different exposures than equity market positions.