Finance prediction markets on earnings, bankruptcies, M&A deals, and corporate drama. Will this company beat earnings? Does the acquisition go through? Who gets fired as CEO? If Wall Street cares, there's probably odds. See market expectations, spot earnings surprises, and explore all active finance markets.
Finance prediction markets track corporate outcomes, earnings expectations, merger completions, and regulatory approvals. Key signals include quarterly earnings reports, analyst upgrades and downgrades, insider trading patterns, and deal flow news. These markets often move in sync with equity markets but provide binary outcome clarity that equity positions do not.
Finance markets appeal to traders who actively follow specific companies or sectors. Merger arbitrage markets (will deal X close?) tend to be the most accurately priced due to institutional participation. Earnings surprise markets offer opportunities when the crowd consensus deviates significantly from model-based expectations, especially in smaller-cap companies.
Clusters of related markets, grouped by topic
0 (0 bps) is almost certain at 97% odds. The second event puts No change at 87%.
Hottest
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
No change is the strong favorite at 87% odds. The second event puts NVIDIA at 70%.
Hottest
Fed Decision in October?
Odds are low at 1% for Yes. The second event puts the leading outcome at 63%.
Hottest
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
NVIDIA leads at 70% odds. The second event puts Cerebras at 99%.
Hottest
Largest Company end of December 2026?
Cerebras is almost certain at 99% odds. The second event puts December 31, 2026 at 72%.
Hottest
IPOs before 2027?
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15 events