Finance prediction markets on earnings, bankruptcies, M&A deals, and corporate drama. Will this company beat earnings? Does the acquisition go through? Who gets fired as CEO? If Wall Street cares, there's probably odds. See market expectations, spot earnings surprises, and explore all active finance markets.
Finance prediction markets track corporate outcomes, earnings expectations, merger completions, and regulatory approvals. Key signals include quarterly earnings reports, analyst upgrades and downgrades, insider trading patterns, and deal flow news. These markets often move in sync with equity markets but provide binary outcome clarity that equity positions do not.
Finance markets appeal to traders who actively follow specific companies or sectors. Merger arbitrage markets (will deal X close?) tend to be the most accurately priced due to institutional participation. Earnings surprise markets offer opportunities when the crowd consensus deviates significantly from model-based expectations, especially in smaller-cap companies.
Clusters of related markets, grouped by topic
25 bps increase is the strong favorite at 89% odds. The second event puts 0 (0 bps) at 94%.
Hottest
Fed Decision in September?
0 (0 bps) is almost certain at 94% odds. The second event puts NVIDIA at 69%.
Hottest
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
NVIDIA leads at 69% odds. The second event puts Cerebras at 99%.
Hottest
Largest Company end of December 2026?
Cerebras is almost certain at 99% odds. The second event puts December 15, 2026 at 85%.
Hottest
IPOs before 2027?
Odds are low at 39% for 4.0%. The second event puts No change at 63%.
Hottest
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
No change leads at 63% odds. The second event puts ↓ 3.5% at 99%.
Hottest
Fed Decision in October?
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15 events