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Finance

Finance prediction markets on earnings, bankruptcies, M&A deals, and corporate drama. Will this company beat earnings? Does the acquisition go through? Who gets fired as CEO? If Wall Street cares, there's probably odds. See market expectations, spot earnings surprises, and explore all active finance markets.

Active Events19
Total Volume$298.7M

What Drives Finance Market Odds

Finance prediction markets track corporate outcomes, earnings expectations, merger completions, and regulatory approvals. Key signals include quarterly earnings reports, analyst upgrades and downgrades, insider trading patterns, and deal flow news. These markets often move in sync with equity markets but provide binary outcome clarity that equity positions do not.

Finance markets appeal to traders who actively follow specific companies or sectors. Merger arbitrage markets (will deal X close?) tend to be the most accurately priced due to institutional participation. Earnings surprise markets offer opportunities when the crowd consensus deviates significantly from model-based expectations, especially in smaller-cap companies.

Deep Dives: Finance Topics

Clusters of related markets, grouped by topic

Economy

MicroStrategy selling any Bitcoin is almost certain by December 31, 2026, at 99% odds. The Fed is likely to make no change in June, with 98% odds against a change.

12 events$239.8M traded

Hottest

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ?

99%
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Economic Policy

The odds suggest no change in Fed policy in June 2026. There's a 69% chance of no rate cuts this year.

9 events$105.4M traded

Hottest

Fed Decision in June?

98%
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Commodities

Crude Oil is very likely to hit $90 by end of June. Meanwhile, Gold is expected to surge to $5,000 by the same time.

3 events$31.8M traded

Hottest

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June?

99%
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U.S. x Iran

The odds say Strait of Hormuz traffic won't return to normal by the end of June. However, by July 31, the odds are higher at 41%.

2 events$15.1M traded

Hottest

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

22%
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All Finance Events

Filter by time horizon or volume to find the right market

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19 events

Frequently Asked Questions

Markets covering corporate outcomes - earnings results, mergers and acquisitions, regulatory approvals, product launches, and analyst ratings. Often correlated with but providing different exposures than equity market positions.