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Finance

Prediction Markets - Live Odds & Analysis

Finance prediction markets on earnings, bankruptcies, M&A deals, and corporate drama. Will this company beat earnings? Does the acquisition go through? Who gets fired as CEO? If Wall Street cares, there's probably odds. See market expectations, spot earnings surprises, and explore all active finance markets.

Active Events13
Total Volume$224.9M
Top Event

What Drives Finance Market Odds

Finance prediction markets track corporate outcomes, earnings expectations, merger completions, and regulatory approvals. Key signals include quarterly earnings reports, analyst upgrades and downgrades, insider trading patterns, and deal flow news. These markets often move in sync with equity markets but provide binary outcome clarity that equity positions do not.

Finance markets appeal to traders who actively follow specific companies or sectors. Merger arbitrage markets (will deal X close?) tend to be the most accurately priced due to institutional participation. Earnings surprise markets offer opportunities when the crowd consensus deviates significantly from model-based expectations, especially in smaller-cap companies.

Deep Dives: Finance Topics

Clusters of related markets, grouped by topic

Economy

There is almost no chance of a Fed rate change in April at 99% odds. The odds of no rate cuts in 2026 are lower at 34%.

6 events$155.6M traded

Hottest

Fed decision in April?

99%
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Commodities

WTI Crude Oil is expected to hit $110 in April 2026. The odds of Crude Oil reaching $90 by the end of June are also very high.

4 events$58.3M traded

Hottest

What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in April 2026?

99%
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Business

The odds suggest no Fed rate cuts in 2026. NVIDIA is the favorite to be the largest company by the end of December 2026.

2 events$21.4M traded

Hottest

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

34%
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Frequently Asked Questions

Markets covering corporate outcomes - earnings results, mergers and acquisitions, regulatory approvals, product launches, and analyst ratings. Often correlated with but providing different exposures than equity market positions.