Prediction markets on elections, policy fights, and political drama. Who wins 2028? Will Trump get indicted? Which bills pass Congress? If it's a political argument, there's probably odds on it. See what the crowd expects, track shifting opinions, and explore all active politics markets.
Politics prediction markets respond fastest to polls, endorsements, debate performance, and primary results. Major shifts happen when unexpected candidates enter races, when scandals break, or when economic data shifts voter priorities. Unlike traditional polls, these markets price in both probability and trader conviction - sometimes the crowd and the money disagree, which creates arbitrage opportunities. This is a core idea behind how prediction markets work.
Markets on policy outcomes (bills passing, Supreme Court decisions, regulatory actions) tend to be more volatile than candidate markets because fewer people understand the mechanics. This is where informed traders can find edge. The most mispriced markets tend to be local races and downballot contests where less information is publicly available.
Clusters of related markets, grouped by topic
Gavin Newsom has a low chance of being the Democratic Presidential Nominee in 2028 at 20%. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is a strong contender for the Republican nomination at 49%.
Hottest
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has a 49% chance of becoming the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2028. The odds of JD Vance winning the 2028 Presidential Election are lower at 20%.
Hottest
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
JD Vance has a 20% chance of winning the 2028 Presidential Election. Meanwhile, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is favored to win the Brazil Presidential Election at 61%.
Hottest
Presidential Election Winner 2028
The odds of a U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027 are low at 23%. The U.S. might obtain Iranian enriched uranium by the end of 2026, but the odds are only 12%.
Hottest
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is likely to win the Brazil Presidential Election at 61% odds. Flávio Bolsonaro is heavily favored to come in second place at 82% odds.
Hottest
Brazil Presidential Election
Starmer is almost certain to be the next leader out of power before 2027 at 99% odds. The odds also suggest Andy Burnham will be the UK Prime Minister in 2026 at 99%.
Hottest
Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)
Highest volume, sorted by your preference
Filter by time horizon or volume to find the right market
48 events