Prediction markets on elections, policy fights, and political drama. Who wins 2028? Will Trump get indicted? Which bills pass Congress? If it's a political argument, there's probably odds on it. See what the crowd expects, track shifting opinions, and explore all active politics markets.
Politics prediction markets respond fastest to polls, endorsements, debate performance, and primary results. Major shifts happen when unexpected candidates enter races, when scandals break, or when economic data shifts voter priorities. Unlike traditional polls, these markets price in both probability and trader conviction - sometimes the crowd and the money disagree, which creates arbitrage opportunities. This is a core idea behind how prediction markets work.
Markets on policy outcomes (bills passing, Supreme Court decisions, regulatory actions) tend to be more volatile than candidate markets because fewer people understand the mechanics. This is where informed traders can find edge. The most mispriced markets tend to be local races and downballot contests where less information is publicly available.
Clusters of related markets, grouped by topic
Gavin Newsom has a 20% chance of being the Democratic Presidential Nominee in 2028. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is the leading Republican candidate at 49%.
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Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is the top choice to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2028 at 49% odds. The odds for JD Vance to win the 2028 Presidential Election are lower at 20%.
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Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
JD Vance has a 20% chance of winning the 2028 Presidential Election. Meanwhile, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is favored to win the Brazil Presidential Election at 61%.
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Presidential Election Winner 2028
The odds suggest a low chance of the U.S. invading Iran before 2027 at 23%. The U.S. might obtain Iranian enriched uranium by the end of the year, with December 31 odds at 12%.
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Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is favored to win the Brazil Presidential Election at 61% odds. Flávio Bolsonaro is heavily favored to come in second in the first round.
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Brazil Presidential Election
Starmer is very likely to be out of power before 2027 at 99% odds. The odds also favor Andy Burnham as the next UK Prime Minister in 2026 at 99%.
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Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)
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