Prediction markets on elections, policy fights, and political drama. Who wins 2028? Will Trump get indicted? Which bills pass Congress? If it's a political argument, there's probably odds on it. See what the crowd expects, track shifting opinions, and explore all active politics markets.
Politics prediction markets respond fastest to polls, endorsements, debate performance, and primary results. Major shifts happen when unexpected candidates enter races, when scandals break, or when economic data shifts voter priorities. Unlike traditional polls, these markets price in both probability and trader conviction - sometimes the crowd and the money disagree, which creates arbitrage opportunities. This is a core idea behind how prediction markets work.
Markets on policy outcomes (bills passing, Supreme Court decisions, regulatory actions) tend to be more volatile than candidate markets because fewer people understand the mechanics. This is where informed traders can find edge. The most mispriced markets tend to be local races and downballot contests where less information is publicly available.
Clusters of related markets, grouped by topic
Gavin Newsom has a low chance of being the Democratic Presidential Nominee in 2028 at 24%. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is the favorite to win the Republican nomination at 49%.
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Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
JD Vance has a very low chance of winning the 2028 Presidential Election at 19%. Meanwhile, odds for Jordan Bardella in the Next French Presidential Election are slightly higher at 23%.
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Presidential Election Winner 2028
Chong Won-oh is heavily favored to win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election at 81% odds. Meanwhile, Xavier Becerra's chances of becoming California Governor are less certain at 51%.
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2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Winner
The odds suggest a low chance of Epstein's suicide note being released by May 31. The US acquiring part of Greenland in 2026 is considered a slightly more likely outcome at 14%.
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Epstein suicide note released by...?
Iran's airspace is likely to close by June 30, with 56% odds. A leadership change in Iran is less certain, with 34% odds by December 31.
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Iran closes its airspace by...?
A leadership change in Iran by December 31 is predicted at 34% odds. The odds of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 are low at 52% for No Meeting.
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Iran leadership change by...?
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