Prediction markets on elections, policy fights, and political drama. Who wins 2028? Will Trump get indicted? Which bills pass Congress? If it's a political argument, there's probably odds on it. See what the crowd expects, track shifting opinions, and explore all active politics markets.
Politics prediction markets respond fastest to polls, endorsements, debate performance, and primary results. Major shifts happen when unexpected candidates enter races, when scandals break, or when economic data shifts voter priorities. Unlike traditional polls, these markets price in both probability and trader conviction - sometimes the crowd and the money disagree, which creates arbitrage opportunities.
Markets on policy outcomes (bills passing, Supreme Court decisions, regulatory actions) tend to be more volatile than candidate markets because fewer people understand the mechanics. This is where informed traders can find edge. The most mispriced markets tend to be local races and downballot contests where less information is publicly available.
Clusters of related markets, grouped by topic
Gavin Newsom has a low chance of being the Democratic Presidential Nominee in 2028 at 27%. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is more likely to be the Republican Presidential Nominee at 49%.
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Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Kevin Warsh is very likely to be confirmed as Fed Chair with 95% odds. The odds of Trump announcing the end of military operations against Iran by June 30 are 89%.
Hottest
Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?
The odds are very low that the Iranian regime will fall by April 30. The odds suggest a Trump announcement on ending military operations against Iran is likely by June 30.
Hottest
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Édouard Philippe has a low chance of winning the next French Presidential Election at 24%. Macron's potential departure by June 30, 2026, is even less likely at 2%.
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Next French Presidential Election
The odds are extremely high that Trump will visit China by June 30. A US war with Iran is highly unlikely, with odds at just 7% by December 31.
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Will Trump visit China by...?
The odds suggest Trump will announce the end of military operations against Iran by June 30 at 89%. A US war declaration against Iran by December 31 seems unlikely at just 7%.
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Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?
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47 events
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Presidential Election Winner 2028
Next French Presidential Election
Peru Presidential Election Winner
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?
Will Trump visit China by...?
2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Winner
Colombia Presidential Election
California Governor Election Winner
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Iran leadership change by...?
Trump out as President by April 30?
Trump out as President before 2027?
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Where will Trump and Putin meet next?
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?
Will US withdraw from NATO by...?
Epstein client list released by...?
US strike on Mexico by...?
2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election Winner
Trump out as President by June 30?
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
Berlin State Election Winner
Maine Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Will Tim Walz resign by...?
Virginia Republican Senate Primary Winner
2026 South Korean Local Elections: Party Winner
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
Macron out by...?
West Bengal Legislative Assembly Election Winner
Who visited Epstein's Island?
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
Scotland Parliamentary Election Winner
NATO x Russia military clash by...?
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
Markets where traders bet real money on political outcomes like elections, policy decisions, and legislative votes. Prices reflect the crowd's probability estimate of each outcome - a market at 72% means the collective thinks there's a 72% chance that event occurs.