πŸ—³οΈPolitics Β· Prediction Markets

Politics Prediction Markets β€” Live Odds & Analysis

Track live prediction market odds on elections, policy decisions, and political events. See where traders are putting money on outcomes from presidential races to legislative votes.

πŸ“Š49active events
πŸ’°$1.7Btotal volume
πŸ”₯Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028leading at $738.9M
πŸ“š

What Drives Politics Market Odds

Politics prediction markets respond fastest to polls, endorsements, debate performance, and primary results. Major shifts happen when unexpected candidates enter races, when scandals break, or when economic data shifts voter priorities. Unlike traditional polls, these markets price in both probability and trader conviction β€” sometimes the crowd and the money disagree, which creates arbitrage opportunities.

Markets on policy outcomes (bills passing, Supreme Court decisions, regulatory actions) tend to be more volatile than candidate markets because fewer people understand the mechanics. This is where informed traders can find edge. The most mispriced markets tend to be local races and downballot contests where less information is publicly available.

All Politics Events

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49 events

Event
Democratic Presidential Nominee 202825%$738.9M981d
Presidential Election Winner 202821%$349.0M981d
Republican Presidential Nominee 202849%$342.7M981d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?99%$54.7MNaNd
Elon Musk # tweets February 24 - March 3, 2026?36%$39.7M2d
Elon Musk # tweets February 27 - March 6, 2026?14%$32.0M5d
Next President of Vietnam88%$20.1MToday
What will happen before GTA VI?94%$18.4M152d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?20%$12.5MNaNd
Next French Presidential Election28%$9.7M424d
Starmer out by...?71%$9.2MToday
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?14%$8.6MNaNd
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 202610%$6.6M222d
Colombia Presidential Election50%$5.5M112d
Trump out as President by March 31?3%$4.2MNaNd
MarΓ­a Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?56%$4.1MToday
Epstein client list released by...?16%$3.9M120d
Trump out as President before 2027?16%$3.9MNaNd
Will Israel strike Gaza on...?99%$3.7MToday
Which party will win the House in 2026?84%$3.6M246d
Will Israel strike Lebanon on...?99%$3.5MToday
US/Israel strikes Iran on...?99%$3.4M8d
2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Winner81%$3.1M93d
US strike on Mexico by...?30%$2.9M304d
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms43%$2.7M246d
Texas Democratic Senate Primary Winner78%$2.6M1d
NicolΓ‘s Maduro released from custody by...?16%$2.6MToday
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?25%$2.5MToday
Will Tim Walz resign by...?12%$2.5M120d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?35%$2.3MNaNd
Another US strike on Venezuela by...?15%$2.2MToday
Will Trump visit China by...?82%$2.1M59d
Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?77%$2.0M212d
Macron out by...?4%$1.8M121d
Kevin Warsh formally nominated as Fed Chair by...?71%$1.8MToday
Elon Musk # tweets February 28 - March 2, 2026?71%$1.8M1d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?28%$1.7MNaNd
Maine Democratic Senate Primary Winner73%$1.6M99d
Will Ilhan Omar resign by March 31?3%$1.6MNaNd
Turnout in 2025 Honduran General Election82%$1.5MToday
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?6%$1.5MNaNd
Who will be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?1%$1.4MToday
Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?33%$1.4M304d
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?4%$1.4M73d
Elon Musk # tweets March 3 - March 10, 2026?11%$1.3M9d
Elon Musk musk # tweets in March 2026?31%$1.3M30d
How many times will the US strike Somalia in February?97%$1.3M2d
How long will the DHS shutdown last?99%$1.3M12d
Russia nuclear test by...?2%$1.2M29d

Frequently Asked Questions

Markets where traders bet real money on political outcomes like elections, policy decisions, and legislative votes. Prices reflect the crowd's probability estimate of each outcome β€” a market at 72% means the collective thinks there's a 72% chance that event occurs.