Prediction markets on elections, policy fights, and political drama. Who wins 2028? Will Trump get indicted? Which bills pass Congress? If it's a political argument, there's probably odds on it. See what the crowd expects, track shifting opinions, and explore all active politics markets.
Politics prediction markets respond fastest to polls, endorsements, debate performance, and primary results. Major shifts happen when unexpected candidates enter races, when scandals break, or when economic data shifts voter priorities. Unlike traditional polls, these markets price in both probability and trader conviction - sometimes the crowd and the money disagree, which creates arbitrage opportunities. This is a core idea behind how prediction markets work.
Markets on policy outcomes (bills passing, Supreme Court decisions, regulatory actions) tend to be more volatile than candidate markets because fewer people understand the mechanics. This is where informed traders can find edge. The most mispriced markets tend to be local races and downballot contests where less information is publicly available.
Clusters of related markets, grouped by topic
Gavin Newsom has a 25% chance of being the Democratic Presidential Nominee in 2028. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leads the Republican field at 49%.
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Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
JD Vance has a low chance of winning the 2028 Presidential Election at 18%. The odds for a French presidential win by Jordan Bardella are higher at 23%.
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Presidential Election Winner 2028
Jordan Bardella has a low chance of winning the next French Presidential Election at 23% odds. Macron's departure is highly unlikely by December 31, 2025, at just 1% odds.
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Next French Presidential Election
Chong Won-oh is the clear favorite to win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election at 85% odds. The California Governor Election Winner odds are slightly lower at 75% for Xavier Becerra.
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2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Winner
The odds are low that the US will acquire part of Greenland in 2026 at just 14%. Trump's presidency may not last long, with odds at 11% he's out before 2027.
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Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
A leadership change in Iran is possible by the end of the year at 28% odds. The odds of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 are low at 57%.
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Iran leadership change by...?
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