Prediction markets on elections, policy fights, and political drama. Who wins 2028? Will Trump get indicted? Which bills pass Congress? If it's a political argument, there's probably odds on it. See what the crowd expects, track shifting opinions, and explore all active politics markets.
Politics prediction markets respond fastest to polls, endorsements, debate performance, and primary results. Major shifts happen when unexpected candidates enter races, when scandals break, or when economic data shifts voter priorities. Unlike traditional polls, these markets price in both probability and trader conviction - sometimes the crowd and the money disagree, which creates arbitrage opportunities. This is a core idea behind how prediction markets work.
Markets on policy outcomes (bills passing, Supreme Court decisions, regulatory actions) tend to be more volatile than candidate markets because fewer people understand the mechanics. This is where informed traders can find edge. The most mispriced markets tend to be local races and downballot contests where less information is publicly available.
Clusters of related markets, grouped by topic
Gavin Newsom has a 25% chance of becoming the next Democratic Presidential Nominee in 2028. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is the favorite to win the Republican nomination at 49%.
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Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
JD Vance has a low chance of winning the 2028 Presidential Election at 18%. The odds for the next French Presidential Election's winner, Jordan Bardella, are higher at 24%.
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Presidential Election Winner 2028
Jordan Bardella has a 24% chance of winning the next French Presidential Election. Macron's departure by December 31, 2025, is highly unlikely at just 1%.
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Next French Presidential Election
The odds of the US acquiring part of Greenland in 2026 are very low at 14%. Trump's presidency might come to an end before 2027 at 11% odds.
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Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Chong Won-oh is heavily favored to win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election at 84% odds. Meanwhile, the next Israeli Prime Minister is still uncertain, with Benjamin Netanyahu at 33% odds.
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2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Winner
A leadership change in Iran is possible by December 31 at 28% odds. The odds of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 are low at 51% for a meeting to happen.
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Iran leadership change by...?
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