Prediction markets on elections, policy fights, and political drama. Who wins 2028? Will Trump get indicted? Which bills pass Congress? If it's a political argument, there's probably odds on it. See what the crowd expects, track shifting opinions, and explore all active politics markets.
Politics prediction markets respond fastest to polls, endorsements, debate performance, and primary results. Major shifts happen when unexpected candidates enter races, when scandals break, or when economic data shifts voter priorities. Unlike traditional polls, these markets price in both probability and trader conviction - sometimes the crowd and the money disagree, which creates arbitrage opportunities. This is a core idea behind how prediction markets work.
Markets on policy outcomes (bills passing, Supreme Court decisions, regulatory actions) tend to be more volatile than candidate markets because fewer people understand the mechanics. This is where informed traders can find edge. The most mispriced markets tend to be local races and downballot contests where less information is publicly available.
Clusters of related markets, grouped by topic
Odds are low at 19% for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. The second event puts JD Vance at 23%.
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Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Odds are low at 23% for JD Vance. The second event puts J.D. Vance at 51%.
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Presidential Election Winner 2028
Odds are low at 17% for Yes. The second event puts December 31 at 8%.
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Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Odds for Flávio Bolsonaro are contested at 52%. The second event puts Flávio Bolsonaro at 76%.
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Brazil Presidential Election
Odds are low at 4% for Yes. The second event puts December 31 at 2%.
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Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
United Russia (ER) is the strong favorite at 77% odds. The second event puts December 31, 2027 at 70%.
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Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
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56 events