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Economics

Economic prediction markets on Fed decisions, inflation, recession odds, and macro events that move money. Will rates get cut? Is a recession coming? What's unemployment next quarter? See what traders expect, compare Fed speak to market reality, and track all active economic markets.

Active Events16
Total Volume$138.6M

What Drives Economics Market Odds

Economics prediction markets are driven by macroeconomic data releases: CPI, jobs numbers, GDP revisions, and Federal Reserve meeting outcomes. Markets typically react within minutes of data publication, with the biggest moves when actual figures diverge from consensus estimates. Interest rate expectations are the most actively traded macro prediction markets globally.

Unlike politics or sports, macro markets attract sophisticated institutional participation, making them harder to beat consistently. Edge exists when you understand how Fed communication shifts market expectations before official decisions, or when you can correctly model how one data release affects another. Central bank policy markets are particularly liquid and often highly accurate predictors of near-term outcomes.

Deep Dives: Economics Topics

Clusters of related markets, grouped by topic

Economy

There is almost no chance of any Fed rate cuts in 2026 at 86% odds. The Fed may still make a decision in September, with a 44% chance of a change.

8 events$92.2M traded

Hottest

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

86%
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CPI Release

The odds suggest the Fed will not change rates in September at 56%. A rate hike in 2026 seems more likely at 60% odds.

3 events$33.9M traded

Hottest

Fed Decision in September?

56%
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Big Tech

Cerebras is very likely to have an IPO before 2027 at 99% odds. NVIDIA is the top contender to be the largest company by the end of December 2026 at 70% odds.

2 events$12.7M traded

Hottest

IPOs before 2027?

99%
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Esports

Gen.G Esports is a long shot to win the LCK 2026 Season at 27% odds. Bilibili Gaming is a strong contender for the LPL 2026 Season at 52% odds.

2 events$5.9M traded

Hottest

LCK 2026 Season Winner

27%
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Inflation

The odds suggest a Fed rate hike is likely by October at 49%. Inflation is expected to rise above 3% in 2026.

2 events$3.5M traded

Hottest

Fed rate hike by...?

49%
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Macro Indicators

The odds strongly suggest the Fed Rate will hit 3.5% before 2027. Inflation is also expected to rise above 3% in 2026.

2 events$3.1M traded

Hottest

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

99%
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Frequently Asked Questions

Markets that price the probability of economic outcomes: Fed rate decisions, inflation targets, GDP growth, unemployment levels, and policy announcements. Used by traders, economists, and analysts to track consensus expectations in real-time.