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Economics

Economic prediction markets on Fed decisions, inflation, recession odds, and macro events that move money. Will rates get cut? Is a recession coming? What's unemployment next quarter? See what traders expect, compare Fed speak to market reality, and track all active economic markets.

Active Events17
Total Volume$200.5M
Top Event

What Drives Economics Market Odds

Economics prediction markets are driven by macroeconomic data releases: CPI, jobs numbers, GDP revisions, and Federal Reserve meeting outcomes. Markets typically react within minutes of data publication, with the biggest moves when actual figures diverge from consensus estimates. Interest rate expectations are the most actively traded macro prediction markets globally.

Unlike politics or sports, macro markets attract sophisticated institutional participation, making them harder to beat consistently. Edge exists when you understand how Fed communication shifts market expectations before official decisions, or when you can correctly model how one data release affects another. Central bank policy markets are particularly liquid and often highly accurate predictors of near-term outcomes.

Deep Dives: Economics Topics

Clusters of related markets, grouped by topic

Economy

25 bps increase leads at 56% odds. The second event puts 0 (0 bps) at 88%.

9 events$146.3M traded

Hottest

Fed Decision in September?

56%
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Business

0 (0 bps) is the strong favorite at 88% odds. The second event puts Cerebras at 99%.

4 events$65.6M traded

Hottest

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

88%
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Big Tech

Cerebras is almost certain at 99% odds. The second event puts NVIDIA at 76%.

2 events$13.6M traded

Hottest

IPOs before 2027?

99%
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Esports

Odds for Gen.G Esports are contested at 43%. The second event puts Bilibili Gaming at 70%.

2 events$6.0M traded

Hottest

LCK 2026 Season Winner

43%
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Inflation

October Meeting leads at 59% odds. The second event puts Above 3% at 99%.

2 events$4.0M traded

Hottest

Fed rate hike by...?

59%
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Macro Indicators

↓ 3.5% is almost certain at 99% odds. The second event puts Above 3% at 99%.

2 events$3.2M traded

Hottest

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

99%
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Frequently Asked Questions

Markets that price the probability of economic outcomes: Fed rate decisions, inflation targets, GDP growth, unemployment levels, and policy announcements. Used by traders, economists, and analysts to track consensus expectations in real-time.