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Economics

Prediction Markets - Live Odds & Analysis

Economic prediction markets on Fed decisions, inflation, recession odds, and macro events that move money. Will rates get cut? Is a recession coming? What's unemployment next quarter? See what traders expect, compare Fed speak to market reality, and track all active economic markets.

Active Events13
Total Volume$224.6M
Top Event

What Drives Economics Market Odds

Economics prediction markets are driven by macroeconomic data releases: CPI, jobs numbers, GDP revisions, and Federal Reserve meeting outcomes. Markets typically react within minutes of data publication, with the biggest moves when actual figures diverge from consensus estimates. Interest rate expectations are the most actively traded macro prediction markets globally.

Unlike politics or sports, macro markets attract sophisticated institutional participation, making them harder to beat consistently. Edge exists when you understand how Fed communication shifts market expectations before official decisions, or when you can correctly model how one data release affects another. Central bank policy markets are particularly liquid and often highly accurate predictors of near-term outcomes.

Deep Dives: Economics Topics

Clusters of related markets, grouped by topic

Economy

The odds are very high that the Fed will make no change in April 2026. There's a 35% chance of no Fed rate cuts in 2026, suggesting some uncertainty.

6 events$155.5M traded

Hottest

Fed decision in April?

99%
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Commodities

WTI Crude Oil is expected to hit $110 in April 2026. The odds also suggest crude oil will reach $90 by the end of June.

4 events$58.2M traded

Hottest

What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in April 2026?

99%
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Business

The odds suggest no Fed rate cuts in 2026. NVIDIA is the most likely largest company at the end of December 2026.

2 events$21.4M traded

Hottest

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

33%
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Frequently Asked Questions

Markets that price the probability of economic outcomes: Fed rate decisions, inflation targets, GDP growth, unemployment levels, and policy announcements. Used by traders, economists, and analysts to track consensus expectations in real-time.