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Economics

Economic prediction markets on Fed decisions, inflation, recession odds, and macro events that move money. Will rates get cut? Is a recession coming? What's unemployment next quarter? See what traders expect, compare Fed speak to market reality, and track all active economic markets.

Active Events18
Total Volume$258.8M

What Drives Economics Market Odds

Economics prediction markets are driven by macroeconomic data releases: CPI, jobs numbers, GDP revisions, and Federal Reserve meeting outcomes. Markets typically react within minutes of data publication, with the biggest moves when actual figures diverge from consensus estimates. Interest rate expectations are the most actively traded macro prediction markets globally.

Unlike politics or sports, macro markets attract sophisticated institutional participation, making them harder to beat consistently. Edge exists when you understand how Fed communication shifts market expectations before official decisions, or when you can correctly model how one data release affects another. Central bank policy markets are particularly liquid and often highly accurate predictors of near-term outcomes.

Deep Dives: Economics Topics

Clusters of related markets, grouped by topic

Economy

MicroStrategy selling any Bitcoin is almost certain by December 31, 2026. The odds of no change in the Fed's decision in June are very high at 98%.

11 events$200.0M traded

Hottest

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ?

99%
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Economic Policy

There is almost no chance of a Fed rate change in June at 98% odds. The odds of zero rate cuts in 2026 are higher at 69%.

8 events$103.7M traded

Hottest

Fed Decision in June?

98%
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Commodities

Crude Oil is very likely to hit $90 by end of June. Gold is also expected to rise significantly, with a predicted $5,000 by end of June.

3 events$31.7M traded

Hottest

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June?

99%
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U.S. x Iran

The odds of Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by the end of June are very low at 19%. By July 31, odds are higher at 41%.

2 events$14.9M traded

Hottest

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

19%
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Frequently Asked Questions

Markets that price the probability of economic outcomes: Fed rate decisions, inflation targets, GDP growth, unemployment levels, and policy announcements. Used by traders, economists, and analysts to track consensus expectations in real-time.