Economic prediction markets on Fed decisions, inflation, recession odds, and macro events that move money. Will rates get cut? Is a recession coming? What's unemployment next quarter? See what traders expect, compare Fed speak to market reality, and track all active economic markets.
Economics prediction markets are driven by macroeconomic data releases: CPI, jobs numbers, GDP revisions, and Federal Reserve meeting outcomes. Markets typically react within minutes of data publication, with the biggest moves when actual figures diverge from consensus estimates. Interest rate expectations are the most actively traded macro prediction markets globally.
Unlike politics or sports, macro markets attract sophisticated institutional participation, making them harder to beat consistently. Edge exists when you understand how Fed communication shifts market expectations before official decisions, or when you can correctly model how one data release affects another. Central bank policy markets are particularly liquid and often highly accurate predictors of near-term outcomes.
Clusters of related markets, grouped by topic
0 (0 bps) is almost certain at 97% odds. The second event puts No change at 87%.
Hottest
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
No change is the strong favorite at 87% odds. The second event puts NVIDIA at 70%.
Hottest
Fed Decision in October?
Odds are low at 1% for Yes. The second event puts the leading outcome at 63%.
Hottest
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
NVIDIA leads at 70% odds. The second event puts Cerebras at 99%.
Hottest
Largest Company end of December 2026?
Cerebras is almost certain at 99% odds. The second event puts December 31, 2026 at 72%.
Hottest
IPOs before 2027?
Highest volume, sorted by your preference
Filter by time horizon or volume to find the right market
15 events