Economic prediction markets on Fed decisions, inflation, recession odds, and macro events that move money. Will rates get cut? Is a recession coming? What's unemployment next quarter? See what traders expect, compare Fed speak to market reality, and track all active economic markets.
Economics prediction markets are driven by macroeconomic data releases: CPI, jobs numbers, GDP revisions, and Federal Reserve meeting outcomes. Markets typically react within minutes of data publication, with the biggest moves when actual figures diverge from consensus estimates. Interest rate expectations are the most actively traded macro prediction markets globally.
Unlike politics or sports, macro markets attract sophisticated institutional participation, making them harder to beat consistently. Edge exists when you understand how Fed communication shifts market expectations before official decisions, or when you can correctly model how one data release affects another. Central bank policy markets are particularly liquid and often highly accurate predictors of near-term outcomes.
Clusters of related markets, grouped by topic
25 bps increase leads at 56% odds. The second event puts 0 (0 bps) at 88%.
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Fed Decision in September?
0 (0 bps) is the strong favorite at 88% odds. The second event puts Cerebras at 99%.
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How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Cerebras is almost certain at 99% odds. The second event puts NVIDIA at 76%.
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IPOs before 2027?
Odds for Gen.G Esports are contested at 43%. The second event puts Bilibili Gaming at 70%.
Hottest
LCK 2026 Season Winner
October Meeting leads at 59% odds. The second event puts Above 3% at 99%.
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Fed rate hike by...?
↓ 3.5% is almost certain at 99% odds. The second event puts Above 3% at 99%.
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What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
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17 events