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Economics

Economic prediction markets on Fed decisions, inflation, recession odds, and macro events that move money. Will rates get cut? Is a recession coming? What's unemployment next quarter? See what traders expect, compare Fed speak to market reality, and track all active economic markets.

Active Events15
Total Volume$171.0M
Top Event

What Drives Economics Market Odds

Economics prediction markets are driven by macroeconomic data releases: CPI, jobs numbers, GDP revisions, and Federal Reserve meeting outcomes. Markets typically react within minutes of data publication, with the biggest moves when actual figures diverge from consensus estimates. Interest rate expectations are the most actively traded macro prediction markets globally.

Unlike politics or sports, macro markets attract sophisticated institutional participation, making them harder to beat consistently. Edge exists when you understand how Fed communication shifts market expectations before official decisions, or when you can correctly model how one data release affects another. Central bank policy markets are particularly liquid and often highly accurate predictors of near-term outcomes.

Deep Dives: Economics Topics

Clusters of related markets, grouped by topic

Economic Policy

The odds suggest no change in the Fed's decision in July 2026. The odds of no rate cuts in 2026 are also high at 84%.

7 events$128.1M traded

Hottest

Fed Decision in July?

96%
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Business

There is almost no chance of Fed rate cuts in 2026, with 84% odds for no cuts. Cerebras is highly likely to go public before 2027, with 99% odds.

4 events$56.0M traded

Hottest

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

84%
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Big Tech

Cerebras is very likely to have an IPO before 2027. NVIDIA has a 49% chance of being the largest company by the end of 2026.

2 events$11.2M traded

Hottest

IPOs before 2027?

99%
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Esports

Gen.G Esports is a long shot to win the LCK 2026 Season at 42% odds. Bilibili Gaming is a strong favorite to win the LPL 2026 Season at 63% odds.

2 events$5.0M traded

Hottest

LCK 2026 Season Winner

42%
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Macro Indicators

The odds strongly suggest the Fed Rate will drop to 3.5% before 2027. Inflation is also expected to rise above 3% in 2026.

2 events$3.0M traded

Hottest

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

99%
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Frequently Asked Questions

Markets that price the probability of economic outcomes: Fed rate decisions, inflation targets, GDP growth, unemployment levels, and policy announcements. Used by traders, economists, and analysts to track consensus expectations in real-time.