Today's Signal

December 31

Updated: 13h ago

December 31 is ahead at 44% with June 30 at 6%, but the race is far from settled.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~258 days
Total Volume
$117.4M
24h Change
+$3053K
Active Markets
3
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
December 31
#1 December 31
44%
Widely followed
People watching
Medium
Money behind it
Low
June 30
#2 June 30
6%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
April 30
April 30✦ Surprise
1%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Medium
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This event tracks when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will step down or be removed from office between mid-2025 and the end of 2026. It matters because his leadership can impact regional stability, increase escalation risks, and have economic spillovers. Market prices tend to move when there are military movements and statements, diplomatic developments, verified incident reporting, or updates about the approaching deadline.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Benjamin Netanyahu and the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

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  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Jul 24, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Dec 31, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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Frequently Asked Questions

December 31 leads at 44%, with June 30 at 6% -- a commanding 38-point lead 9 months out. $117.4M has traded across 1,157 positions with 258 days until resolution.
$117.4M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. At this stage, volume reflects ongoing reassessment as new information enters the market.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. December 31's 44% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 44% chance of that outcome -- competitive but uncertain. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Netanyahu out by...? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?44%-View market
Netanyahu out by June 30?6%-View market
Netanyahu out by April 30?1%-View market
Netanyahu out by March 31?0%-View market
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