Today's Signal

June 30, 2027

Updated: 2 hours ago

June 30, 2027 is ahead at 36% with December 31 at 7%, but the race is far from settled.
0%
New to prediction markets?
📊

Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~305 days
Total Volume
$3.6M
24h Change
+$93K
Active Markets
6
⚡

Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
June 30, 2027
#1 June 30, 2027
36%
Widely followed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
December 31
#2 December 31
7%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Medium
September 30
September 30✦ Surprise
1%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Medium
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
📚

Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking will samuel alito announce his retirement by.... Each candidate has their own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on candidates they believe will win, or NO on candidates they think will lose. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible reporting.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on polling data, endorsements, fundraising numbers, debates, and major political developments. Trading volume of $3.6M shows significant market interest with 3,584 active participants.

This page tracks market sentiment, not official polls or endorsements.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

How accurate is Polymarket? See how markets compare to polls →

  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

May 2, 2027
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Jul 1, 2027
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

💭
No analyst takes yet

Be the first to share your analysis on this market.

✍️ Submit Your Take

Frequently Asked Questions

June 30, 2027 leads at 36%, with December 31 at 7% -- a commanding 29-point lead 10 months out. $3.6M has traded across 3,584 positions with 305 days until resolution.
$3.6M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. At this stage, volume reflects ongoing reassessment as new information enters the market.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. June 30, 2027's 36% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 36% chance of that outcome -- unlikely but not impossible. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
📈

View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
June 30, 202736%$47KView market
December 317%$853KView market
September 301%$1083KView market
July 150%$1560KView market
March 310%$27KView market
February 280%$15KView market
Trade on Polymarket →View All Nominee Markets

Go deeper

Accuracy

Prediction markets vs. polls - who gets it right?

Guide

How to read prediction market odds on elections

Legal

Are prediction markets legal?

Markets are live and updating as the race evolves.

Trade on PolymarketCompare Platforms