Today's Signal

Chiang Wan-an

Updated: 2 hours ago

Traders currently favor Chiang Wan-an at 68%, with Puma Shen trailing.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~22 days
Total Volume
$4.1M
24h Change
+$106K
Active Markets
3
⚡

Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Chiang Wan-an
#1 Chiang Wan-an
68%
Widely followed
People watching
Medium
Money behind it
Medium
Puma Shen
#2 Puma Shen
33%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Medium
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking taipei mayor election winner. Each outcome has its own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on outcomes they believe will happen, or NO on outcomes they think won't. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible sources.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on official announcements, news developments, and expert analysis. Trading volume of $4.1M shows significant market interest with 4,073 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Taipei as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission https://db.cec.gov.tw/.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

How accurate is Polymarket? See how markets compare to polls →

  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Sep 30, 2026
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Nov 29, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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Frequently Asked Questions

Chiang Wan-an leads at 68%, with Puma Shen at 33% -- a commanding 35-point lead 22 days out. $4.1M has traded across 4,073 positions with 22 days until resolution.
$4.1M total, only $59K moved in the last 24 hours. With resolution near, traders are locking in final positions based on latest information.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Chiang Wan-an's 68% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 68% chance of that outcome -- more likely than not. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Taipei Mayor Election Winner event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Chiang Wan-an68%$1952KView market
Puma Shen33%$1984KView market
Kuo Hsi0%$138KView market
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Basics

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Prediction markets vs. polls - who gets it right?

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Markets are live and updating as the race evolves.

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