Today's Signal

Nicolás Maduro

Updated: 2 hours ago

The market strongly favors Nicolás Maduro at 71%, with a commanding lead over the field.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~76 days
Total Volume
$98.4M
24h Change
+$2558K
Active Markets
16
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Nicolás Maduro
#1 Nicolás Maduro
71%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
Delcy Rodríguez
#2 Delcy Rodríguez
25%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
No Head of State
No Head of State✦ Surprise
2%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking venezuela leader end of 2026. Each outcome has its own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on outcomes they believe will happen, or NO on outcomes they think won't. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible sources.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on official announcements, news developments, and expert analysis. Trading volume of $98.4M shows significant market interest with 98,382 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

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  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Nov 2, 2026
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Jan 1, 2027
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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Frequently Asked Questions

Nicolás Maduro leads at 71%, with Delcy Rodríguez at 25% -- a commanding 46-point lead 76 days out. $98.4M has traded across 98,382 positions with 76 days until resolution.
$98.4M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. Volume tends to accelerate as resolution approaches and traders adjust positions.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Nicolás Maduro's 71% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 71% chance of that outcome -- more likely than not. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Venezuela leader end of 2026? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Nicolás Maduro71%$3514KView market
Delcy Rodríguez25%$2322KView market
No Head of State2%$1644KView market
María Corina Machado1%$1586KView market
Richard Grenell0%$32813KView market
Frank Donovan0%$25936KView market
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