Today's Signal

Delcy Rodríguez

Updated: 2h ago

Traders currently favor Delcy Rodríguez at 64%, with Nicolás Maduro trailing.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~281 days
Total Volume
$76.9M
24h Change
+$2001K
Active Markets
7
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Moneyshows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Delcy Rodríguez
#1 Delcy Rodríguez
63%
Widely followed
People watching
Medium
Money behind it
Low
Nicolás Maduro
#2 Nicolás Maduro
14%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
Diosdado Cabello Rondón✦ Surprise
1%
Limited activity
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This event tracks whether something will happen within a certain time frame. It matters because the outcome could have a material impact on the results. Market prices tend to move when there are updates from primary sources and credible reporting, or as the deadline gets closer. Prices also shift based on new information and updates about the deadline.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa. In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Jan 4, 2026
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Dec 31, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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Frequently Asked Questions

Delcy Rodríguez leads at 63%, with Nicolás Maduro at 14% -- a commanding 49-point lead 9 months out. $76.9M has traded across 828 positions with 281 days until resolution.
$76.9M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. At this stage, volume reflects ongoing reassessment as new information enters the market.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Delcy Rodríguez's 63% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 63% chance of that outcome -- more likely than not. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Venezuela leader end of 2026? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?63%-View market
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?14%-View market
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?13%-View market
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?1%-View market
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?1%-View market
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?1%-View market
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