Today's Signal

December Meeting

Updated: 2 hours ago

December Meeting is ahead at 27% with September Meeting at 16%, but the race is far from settled.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~24 days
Total Volume
$1.8M
24h Change
+$46K
Active Markets
8
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
December Meeting
#1 December Meeting
27%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
September Meeting
#2 September Meeting
16%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
June Meeting
June Meeting✦ Surprise
1%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Medium
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking fed rate cut by.... Each outcome has its own separate YES/NO market. Traders can position themselves based on their expectations. The outcome will be determined based on official economic data releases and central bank announcements.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on economic data releases, central bank communications, inflation reports, and employment figures. Trading volume of $1.8M shows significant market interest with 1,761 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2026, currently scheduled for January 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no January meeting takes place by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

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  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Dec 16, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Jun 17, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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Frequently Asked Questions

December Meeting leads at 27%, with September Meeting at 16% -- a 11-point lead 24 days out. $1.8M has traded across 1,761 positions with 24 days until resolution.
$1.8M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. With resolution near, traders are locking in final positions based on latest information.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. December Meeting's 27% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 27% chance of that outcome -- unlikely but not impossible. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Fed rate cut by...? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
December Meeting27%$114KView market
September Meeting16%$99KView market
October Meeting16%$45KView market
July Meeting8%$79KView market
June Meeting1%$294KView market
January Meeting0%$588KView market
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