Today's Signal

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Updated: 20h ago

The market currently leans toward Robert F.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~913 days
Total Volume
$608.9M
24h Change
+$15830K
Active Markets
36
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
#1 Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
49%
Widely followed
People watching
Medium
Money behind it
Low
J.D. Vance
#2 J.D. Vance
37%
Widely followed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
Marco Rubio
Marco Rubio✦ Surprise
24%
Limited activity
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This event tracks who the Republican Party will nominate as their presidential candidate for 2028. It matters because the nominee can significantly impact the party's direction, policy platform, and competitiveness in the general election, ultimately affecting the country's leadership and policy decisions. Market prices tend to move when primary sources and credible reporting reveal new information, polling data and primary results show shifts in voter support, or key endorsements and fundraising numbers become public.

This page tracks market sentiment, not official polls or endorsements.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

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  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Jul 11, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Nov 7, 2028
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leads at 49%, with J.D. Vance at 37% -- a 12-point lead 3 years out. $608.9M has traded across 7,823 positions with 913 days until resolution.
$608.9M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. High volume on long-horizon events like this typically signals strong early conviction rather than reaction to recent news.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s 49% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 49% chance of that outcome -- competitive but uncertain. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?49%-View market
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?37%-View market
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?24%-View market
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?6%-View market
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?3%-View market
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?2%-View market
Trade on Polymarket →View All Nominee Markets

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