Today's Signal

June 30, 2027

Updated: 2 hours ago

No clear favorite yet — June 30, 2027 leads at 9% with December 31 close at 3%, signaling a competitive race.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~258 days
Total Volume
$4.3M
24h Change
+$112K
Active Markets
3
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
June 30, 2027
#1 June 30, 2027
9%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
December 31
#2 December 31
3%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
High
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking will ukraine recapture crimean territory by.... Each outcome has its own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on outcomes they believe will happen, or NO on outcomes they think won't. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible sources.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on official announcements, news developments, and expert analysis. Trading volume of $4.3M shows significant market interest with 4,294 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of Crimea is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375 by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap https://deepstatemap.live/ may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

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  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

May 2, 2027
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Jul 1, 2027
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

June 30, 2027 leads at 9%, with December 31 at 3% -- a tight race, only 6% separates them 9 months out. $4.3M has traded across 4,294 positions with 258 days until resolution.
$4.3M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. At this stage, volume reflects ongoing reassessment as new information enters the market.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. June 30, 2027's 9% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 9% chance of that outcome -- unlikely but not impossible. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
June 30, 20279%$11KView market
December 313%$3238KView market
June 300%$1045KView market
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