Today's Signal

2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Updated: 2 hours ago

No clear favorite yet—2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? leads at 28% with 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? close at 27%, signaling a competitive race.
0%
📊

Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~328 days
Total Volume
$4.4M
24h Change
+$114K
Active Markets
13
⚡

Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
28%
#1 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
👥 People watching
●●●●●
High
💵 Money behind it
●●●●●
High
Attention and money aligned
3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
27%
#2 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
👥 People watching
●●●●●
High
💵 Money behind it
●●●●●
High
Quietly backed
6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
✦ Surprise
6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
👥 People watching
●●●●●
Low
💵 Money behind it
●●●●●
High
Quietly backed
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
📚

Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking how many fed rate cuts in 2026. Each team/candidate has their own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on teams they believe will win, or NO on teams they think will lose. The outcome will be determined based on official game results and championship announcements.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on team performance, injuries, playoff standings, odds movements, betting line shifts, and expert analysis. Trading volume of $4.4M shows significant market interest with 769 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market — you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Feb 6, 2026
Market Launch
Market opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Dec 31, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

💭
No analyst takes yet

Be the first to share your analysis on this market.

✍️ Submit Your Take

Frequently Asked Questions

As of the latest prediction market data, Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? leads with approximately 28% probability. These odds reflect market sentiment, not polls or official projections.
Each candidate market is a separate YES/NO contract. You can buy YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them. Market inefficiencies, fees, and the possibility of unlisted candidates mean probabilities rarely sum to exactly 100%.
Prices reflect current market belief based on where traders are putting their money. A 28% price means the market currently believes there's a 28% chance of that outcome. Use the Crowd vs Money signals to understand how attention differs from conviction.
📈

Related Markets

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?28%$381KTrade
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?27%$266KTrade
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?16%$396KTrade
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?12%$238KTrade
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?6%$770KTrade
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?6%$243KTrade
Trade on Polymarket →View All Nominee Markets

Markets are live and updating as the race evolves.

Trade on PolymarketCompare Platforms