Today's Signal

$100M

Updated: 2 hours ago

No clear favorite yet — $100M leads at 95% with $200M close at 91%, signaling a competitive race.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~582 days
Total Volume
$1.4M
24h Change
+$37K
Active Markets
10
⚡

Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
$100M
#1 $100M
95%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
$200M
#2 $200M
91%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
$300M
$300M✦ Surprise
83%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking variational fdv above ___ one day after launch. Each outcome has its own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on outcomes they believe will happen, or NO on outcomes they think won't. The outcome will be determined based on verified on-chain data and credible reporting.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on price action, on-chain metrics, regulatory developments, and market momentum. Trading volume of $1.4M shows significant market interest with 1,419 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Variational doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

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  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Dec 12, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Jan 1, 2028
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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Frequently Asked Questions

$100M leads at 95%, with $200M at 91% -- an unusually tight race -- only 4% separates them 2 years out. $1.4M has traded across 1,419 positions with 582 days until resolution.
$1.4M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. High volume on long-horizon events like this typically signals strong early conviction rather than reaction to recent news.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. $100M's 95% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 95% chance of that outcome -- extremely likely to occur. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
$100M95%$8KView market
$200M91%$19KView market
$300M83%$190KView market
$500M64%$667KView market
$800M38%$162KView market
$1B26%$106KView market
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