Today's Signal

$300M

Updated: 2026-03-03T12:02:10.249Z

Traders currently favor $300M at 66%, with $500M trailing.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~669 days
Total Volume
$337K
24h Change
+$8.8K
Active Markets
8
⚡

Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
$300M
#1 $300M
64%
Widely followed
People watching
Medium
Money behind it
Low
$500M
#2 $500M
33%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Medium
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking variational fdv above ___ one day after launch. Each outcome has its own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on outcomes they believe will happen, or NO on outcomes they think won't. The outcome will be determined based on verified on-chain data and credible reporting.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on price action, on-chain metrics, regulatory developments, and market momentum. Trading volume of $337K shows significant market interest with 70 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market — you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Variational doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Dec 12, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Jan 1, 2028
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

$300M leads at 64%, with $500M at 33% -- a commanding 31-point lead 2 years out. $337K has traded across 70 positions with 669 days until resolution.
$337K total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. High volume on long-horizon events like this typically signals strong early conviction rather than reaction to recent news.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. $300M's 64% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 64% chance of that outcome -- more likely than not. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch?64%—View market
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?33%—View market
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?16%—View market
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?11%—View market
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?8%—View market
Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch?2%—View market
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