Today's Signal

Avengers: Doomsday

Updated: 2 hours ago

No clear favorite yet — Avengers: Doomsday leads at 52% with Spider-Man: Brand New Day close at 45%, signaling a competitive race.
0%
New to prediction markets?
📊

Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~108 days
Total Volume
$2.4M
24h Change
+$63K
Active Markets
12
⚡

Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Avengers: Doomsday
#1 Avengers: Doomsday
52%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Medium
Money behind it
Medium
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
#2 Spider-Man: Brand New Day
45%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Medium
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
📚

Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026. Each outcome has its own separate YES/NO market. Traders can position themselves based on their expectations. The outcome will be determined based on official economic data releases and central bank announcements.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on economic data releases, central bank communications, inflation reports, and employment figures. Trading volume of $2.4M shows significant market interest with 2,410 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend. If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win. If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

How accurate is Polymarket? See how markets compare to polls →

  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Dec 3, 2026
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Feb 1, 2027
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

💭
No analyst takes yet

Be the first to share your analysis on this market.

✍️ Submit Your Take

Frequently Asked Questions

Avengers: Doomsday leads at 52%, with Spider-Man: Brand New Day at 45% -- a tight race, only 7% separates them 4 months out. $2.4M has traded across 2,410 positions with 108 days until resolution.
$2.4M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. At this stage, volume reflects ongoing reassessment as new information enters the market.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Avengers: Doomsday's 52% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 52% chance of that outcome -- competitive but uncertain. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
📈

View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Avengers: Doomsday52%$463KView market
Spider-Man: Brand New Day45%$290KView market
Michael0%$601KView market
The Odyssey0%$230KView market
Toy Story 50%$220KView market
Dune: Messiah0%$181KView market
Trade on Polymarket →View All Nominee Markets

Go deeper

Basics

What is a prediction market?

Guide

Prediction markets explained: buying a dollar at a discount

Platforms

Compare prediction market platforms

Markets are live and updating as the race evolves.

Trade on PolymarketCompare Platforms