Today's Signal

June 30, 2026

Updated: 5h ago

June 30, 2026 is ahead at 17% with December 31 at 1%, but the race is far from settled.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~-106 days
Total Volume
$1.6M
24h Change
+$43K
Active Markets
1
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
June 30, 2026
#1 June 30, 2026
17%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
High
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This event tracks whether a military strike occurs between Jul 30, 2025 and Jun 30, 2026. It matters because of material impact on outcomes and regional escalation and stability. Market prices tend to move when there are primary sources and credible reporting, military surveillance and intelligence.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify. For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip. Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process. Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered. Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

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  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Jul 30, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Dec 31, 2025
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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Frequently Asked Questions

June 30, 2026 leads at 17%, with December 31 at 0% -- a 17-point lead resolving soon. $1.6M has traded across 5,706 positions with 0 days until resolution.
$1.6M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. With resolution near, traders are locking in final positions based on latest information.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. June 30, 2026's 17% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 17% chance of that outcome -- unlikely but not impossible. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Will Hamas agree to disarm by...? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?17%-View market
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?0%-View market
Will Hamas agree to disarm by November 30?0%-View market
Will Hamas agree to disarm by March 31?0%-View market
Will Hamas agree to disarm by February 28?0%-View market
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