Today's Signal

2

Updated: 5h ago

Traders currently favor 2 at 53%, with 1 trailing.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~237 days
Total Volume
$2.8M
24h Change
+$72K
Active Markets
5
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
2
#1 2
52%
Widely followed
People watching
Medium
Money behind it
Low
1
#2 1
42%
Widely followed
People watching
Medium
Money behind it
Low
6 or lower
6 or lower✦ Surprise
2%
Limited activity
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This event tracks where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record? (between Nov 12, 2025 and Dec 31, 2026). It matters because of material impact on outcomes and bragging rights and prediction accuracy. Market prices tend to move when there are primary sources and credible reporting, historical patterns and trends.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt. If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

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  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Nov 12, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Dec 31, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

2 leads at 52%, with 1 at 42% -- a 10-point lead 8 months out. $2.8M has traded across 449 positions with 237 days until resolution.
$2.8M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. At this stage, volume reflects ongoing reassessment as new information enters the market.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. 2's 52% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 52% chance of that outcome -- competitive but uncertain. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?52%-View market
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?42%-View market
Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record?3%-View market
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?3%-View market
Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower?2%-View market
Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record?0%-View market
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