Today's Signal

3.75%

Updated: 12h ago

Traders currently favor 3.75% at 57%, with 3.25% trailing.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~216 days
Total Volume
$6.5M
24h Change
+$168K
Active Markets
14
⚡

Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
3.75%
#1 3.75%
55%
Widely followed
People watching
Medium
Money behind it
Low
3.25%
#2 3.25%
14%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
≥ 4.5%
≥ 4.5%✦ Surprise
2%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking what will the fed rate be at the end of 2026. Each outcome has its own separate YES/NO market. Traders can position themselves based on their expectations. The outcome will be determined based on official economic data releases and central bank announcements.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on economic data releases, central bank communications, inflation reports, and employment figures. Trading volume of $6.5M shows significant market interest with 410 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

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  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Jan 12, 2026
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Dec 9, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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Frequently Asked Questions

3.75% leads at 55%, with 3.25% at 14% -- a commanding 41-point lead 7 months out. $6.5M has traded across 410 positions with 216 days until resolution.
$6.5M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. At this stage, volume reflects ongoing reassessment as new information enters the market.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. 3.75%'s 55% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 55% chance of that outcome -- competitive but uncertain. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?55%-View market
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.25% at the end of 2026?14%-View market
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026?11%-View market
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?9%-View market
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2026?5%-View market
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?3%-View market
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