Today's Signal

SpaceX

Updated: 2 hours ago

The market strongly favors SpaceX at 86%, with a commanding lead over the field.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~222 days
Total Volume
$2.0M
24h Change
+$52K
Active Markets
12
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
SpaceX
#1 SpaceX
86%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
Anthropic
#2 Anthropic
11%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
OpenAI
OpenAI✦ Surprise
4%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking largest ipo by market cap in 2026. Each outcome has its own separate YES/NO market. Traders can position themselves based on their expectations. The outcome will be determined based on official economic data releases and central bank announcements.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on economic data releases, central bank communications, inflation reports, and employment figures. Trading volume of $2.0M shows significant market interest with 1,987 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026. This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/. If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used. A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

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  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Nov 1, 2026
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Dec 31, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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Frequently Asked Questions

SpaceX leads at 86%, with Anthropic at 11% -- a commanding 75-point lead 7 months out. $2.0M has traded across 1,987 positions with 222 days until resolution.
$2.0M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. At this stage, volume reflects ongoing reassessment as new information enters the market.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. SpaceX's 86% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 86% chance of that outcome -- extremely likely to occur. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
SpaceX86%$242KView market
Anthropic11%$370KView market
OpenAI4%$342KView market
Kraken0%$391KView market
ByteDance0%$109KView market
Databricks0%$93KView market
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