Today's Signal

December 31, 2027

Updated: 2 hours ago

No clear favorite yet — December 31, 2027 leads at 28% with June 30, 2027 close at 25%, signaling a competitive race.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~78 days
Total Volume
$8.5M
24h Change
+$222K
Active Markets
10
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
December 31, 2027
#1 December 31, 2027
28%
Limited activity
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
June 30, 2027
#2 June 30, 2027
25%
Limited activity
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
December 31
December 31✦ Surprise
4%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
High
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking israel withdraws from lebanon by.... Each outcome has its own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on outcomes they believe will happen, or NO on outcomes they think won't. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible sources.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on official announcements, news developments, and expert analysis. Trading volume of $8.5M shows significant market interest with 8,520 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

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  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Nov 2, 2026
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Jan 1, 2027
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

December 31, 2027 leads at 28%, with June 30, 2027 at 25% -- an unusually tight race -- only 3% separates them 78 days out. $8.5M has traded across 8,520 positions with 78 days until resolution.
$8.5M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. Volume tends to accelerate as resolution approaches and traders adjust positions.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. December 31, 2027's 28% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 28% chance of that outcome -- unlikely but not impossible. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
December 31, 202728%$1KView market
June 30, 202725%$5KView market
March 31, 202719%$1KView market
December 314%$256KView market
June 300%$3524KView market
July 310%$2153KView market
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