Today's Signal

December 31

Updated: 2 hours ago

No clear favorite yet — December 31 leads at 7% with September 30 close at 1%, signaling a competitive race.
0%
New to prediction markets?
📊

Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~123 days
Total Volume
$8.4M
24h Change
+$219K
Active Markets
7
⚡

Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
December 31
#1 December 31
7%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Medium
September 30
#2 September 30
1%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Medium
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
📚

Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking israel withdraws from lebanon by.... Each outcome has its own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on outcomes they believe will happen, or NO on outcomes they think won't. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible sources.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on official announcements, news developments, and expert analysis. Trading volume of $8.4M shows significant market interest with 8,426 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

How accurate is Polymarket? See how markets compare to polls →

  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Nov 2, 2026
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Jan 1, 2027
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

💭
No analyst takes yet

Be the first to share your analysis on this market.

✍️ Submit Your Take

Frequently Asked Questions

December 31 leads at 7%, with September 30 at 1% -- a tight race, only 6% separates them 4 months out. $8.4M has traded across 8,426 positions with 123 days until resolution.
$8.4M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. At this stage, volume reflects ongoing reassessment as new information enters the market.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. December 31's 7% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 7% chance of that outcome -- unlikely but not impossible. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
📈

View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
December 317%$207KView market
September 301%$258KView market
June 300%$3524KView market
July 310%$2153KView market
May 310%$1540KView market
August 310%$669KView market
Trade on Polymarket →View All Nominee Markets

Go deeper

Basics

What is a prediction market?

Accuracy

Prediction markets vs. polls - who gets it right?

Legal

Are prediction markets legal?

Markets are live and updating as the race evolves.

Trade on PolymarketCompare Platforms