Today's Signal

JD Vance

Updated: 2 hours ago

No clear favorite yet-JD Vance leads at 19% with Gavin Newsom close at 17%, signaling a competitive race.
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~935 days
Total Volume
$536.5M
24h Change
+$13950K
Active Markets
36
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
JD Vance
#1 JD Vance
19%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
Gavin Newsom
#2 Gavin Newsom
17%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking presidential election winner 2028. Each candidate has their own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on candidates they believe will win, or NO on candidates they think will lose. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible reporting.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on polling data, endorsements, fundraising numbers, debates, and major political developments. Trading volume of $536.5M shows significant market interest with 6,971 active participants.

This page tracks market sentiment, not official polls or endorsements.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

How accurate is Polymarket? See how markets compare to polls →

  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Jul 11, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Nov 7, 2028
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

JD Vance leads at 19%, with Gavin Newsom at 17% -- an unusually tight race -- only 2% separates them 3 years out. $536.5M has traded across 6,971 positions with 935 days until resolution.
$536.5M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. High volume on long-horizon events like this typically signals strong early conviction rather than reaction to recent news.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. JD Vance's 19% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 19% chance of that outcome -- unlikely but not impossible. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Presidential Election Winner 2028 event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?19%-View market
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?17%-View market
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?12%-View market
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?7%-View market
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?4%-View market
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?4%-View market
Trade on Polymarket →View All Nominee Markets

Go deeper

Accuracy

Prediction markets vs. polls - who gets it right?

Guide

How to read prediction market odds on elections

Legal

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Markets are live and updating as the race evolves.

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