Today's Signal
Gavin Newsom
Updated: 20h ago
Gavin Newsom is ahead at 25% with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 8%, but the race is far from settled.
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Updates & analysis
- Key dates and timeline
- Expert takes and analysis
- Frequently asked questions
Timeline & Key Updates
Jul 11, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Nov 7, 2028
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.
Analyst & Expert Takes
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is currently leading in Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028?
Gavin Newsom leads at 25%, with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 8% -- a 17-point lead 3 years out. $1132.7M has traded across 20,121 positions with 913 days until resolution.
How much money is behind these odds?
$1132.7M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. High volume on long-horizon events like this typically signals strong early conviction rather than reaction to recent news.
How do I read these odds?
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Gavin Newsom's 25% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 25% chance of that outcome -- unlikely but not impossible. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
Go deeper
Markets are live and updating as the race evolves.