Today's Signal

Gavin Newsom

Updated: 2 hours ago

Gavin Newsom is ahead at 24% with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 9%, but the race is far from settled.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~905 days
Total Volume
$1145.2M
24h Change
+$29776K
Active Markets
44
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Gavin Newsom
#1 Gavin Newsom
24%
Limited activity
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
#2 Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
9%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking democratic presidential nominee 2028. Each candidate has their own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on candidates they believe will win, or NO on candidates they think will lose. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible reporting.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on polling data, endorsements, fundraising numbers, debates, and major political developments. Trading volume of $1145.2M shows significant market interest with 20,273 active participants.

This page tracks market sentiment, not official polls or endorsements.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

How accurate is Polymarket? See how markets compare to polls →

  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Jul 11, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Nov 7, 2028
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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Frequently Asked Questions

Gavin Newsom leads at 24%, with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 9% -- a 15-point lead 2 years out. $1145.2M has traded across 20,273 positions with 905 days until resolution.
$1145.2M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. High volume on long-horizon events like this typically signals strong early conviction rather than reaction to recent news.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Gavin Newsom's 24% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 24% chance of that outcome -- unlikely but not impossible. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?24%-View market
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?9%-View market
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?9%-View market
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?6%-View market
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?5%-View market
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?4%-View market
Trade on Polymarket →View All Nominee Markets

Go deeper

Accuracy

Prediction markets vs. polls - who gets it right?

Guide

How to read prediction market odds on elections

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Markets are live and updating as the race evolves.

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