Today's Signal

Gavin Newsom

Updated: 3h ago

Gavin Newsom is ahead at 24% with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 8%, but the race is far from settled.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~959 days
Total Volume
$907.4M
24h Change
+$23593K
Active Markets
44
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Moneyshows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Gavin Newsom
#1 Gavin Newsom
24%
Limited activity
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
#2 Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
8%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This event tracks who will be nominated by the Democratic Party as their presidential candidate for 2028. It matters because the chosen candidate will shape the party's direction and policy platform, affecting their chances in the general election and potentially influencing control of the government. Market prices tend to move when there are new polling data, primary results, or significant endorsements from party leaders, as well as notable debate performances and media coverage. Prices may also shift based on fundraising numbers, donor support, and election administration updates that could impact the nomination process.

This page tracks market sentiment, not official polls or endorsements.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Jul 11, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Nov 7, 2028
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

Gavin Newsom leads at 24%, with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 8% -- a 16-point lead 3 years out. $907.4M has traded across 13,181 positions with 959 days until resolution.
$907.4M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. High volume on long-horizon events like this typically signals strong early conviction rather than reaction to recent news.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Gavin Newsom's 24% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 24% chance of that outcome -- unlikely but not impossible. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?24%-View market
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?8%-View market
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?6%-View market
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?5%-View market
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?4%-View market
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?4%-View market
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Markets are live and updating as the race evolves.

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