Today's Signal

Gavin Newsom

Updated: 2 hours ago

Gavin Newsom is ahead at 30% with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 8%, but the race is far from settled.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~1005 days
Total Volume
$605.6M
24h Change
+$15745K
Active Markets
43
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
Gavin Newsom
30%
#1 Gavin Newsom
👥 People watching
●●●●●
High
💵 Money behind it
●●●●●
Medium
Quietly backed
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
8%
#2 Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
👥 People watching
●●●●●
Low
💵 Money behind it
●●●●●
Low
Attention and money aligned
Oprah
✦ Surprise
Oprah
👥 People watching
●●●●●
Low
💵 Money behind it
●●●●●
High
Quietly backed
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking democratic presidential nominee 2028. Each team/candidate has their own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on teams they believe will win, or NO on teams they think will lose. The outcome will be determined based on official game results and championship announcements.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on team performance, injuries, playoff standings, odds movements, betting line shifts, and expert analysis. Trading volume of $605.6M shows significant market interest with 7,767 active participants.

This page tracks market sentiment, not official polls or endorsements.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market — you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Feb 6, 2026
Market Launch
Market opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Nov 7, 2028
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

As of the latest prediction market data, Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? leads with approximately 30% probability. These odds reflect market sentiment, not polls or official projections.
Each candidate market is a separate YES/NO contract. You can buy YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them. Market inefficiencies, fees, and the possibility of unlisted candidates mean probabilities rarely sum to exactly 100%.
Prices reflect current market belief based on where traders are putting their money. A 28% price means the market currently believes there's a 28% chance of that outcome. Use the Crowd vs Money signals to understand how attention differs from conviction.
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Related Markets

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?30%$6.8MTrade
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?8%$3.5MTrade
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?6%$3.9MTrade
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?6%$5.5MTrade
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?5%$1.8MTrade
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?3%$3.9MTrade
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