Today's Signal

Alberto Núñez Feijóo

Updated: 2 hours ago

The market strongly favors Alberto Núñez Feijóo at 81%, with a commanding lead over the field.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~534 days
Total Volume
$1.9M
24h Change
+$48K
Active Markets
16
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Alberto Núñez Feijóo
#1 Alberto Núñez Feijóo
81%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
Pedro Sánchez
#2 Pedro Sánchez
16%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
Santiago Abascal
Santiago Abascal✦ Surprise
2%
Limited activity
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking next prime minister of spain. Each candidate has their own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on candidates they believe will win, or NO on candidates they think will lose. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible reporting.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on polling data, endorsements, fundraising numbers, debates, and major political developments. Trading volume of $1.9M shows significant market interest with 1,859 active participants.

This page tracks market sentiment, not official polls or endorsements.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must receive a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

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  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Feb 1, 2028
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Apr 1, 2028
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

Alberto Núñez Feijóo leads at 81%, with Pedro Sánchez at 16% -- a commanding 65-point lead 1 year out. $1.9M has traded across 1,859 positions with 534 days until resolution.
$1.9M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. High volume on long-horizon events like this typically signals strong early conviction rather than reaction to recent news.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Alberto Núñez Feijóo's 81% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 81% chance of that outcome -- extremely likely to occur. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Next Prime Minister of Spain? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Alberto Núñez Feijóo81%$398KView market
Pedro Sánchez16%$417KView market
Santiago Abascal2%$263KView market
Isabel Díaz Ayuso0%$231KView market
Carlos Cuerpo0%$192KView market
Yolanda Díaz0%$120KView market
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