Today's Signal

Spider-Man: Brand New Day

Updated: 2 hours ago

Spider-Man: Brand New Day is ahead at 41% with Super Mario Galaxy Movie at 30%, but the race is far from settled.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~328 days
Total Volume
$958K
24h Change
+$24.9K
Active Markets
10
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
41%
#1 Spider-Man: Brand New Day
👥 People watching
●●●●●
High
💵 Money behind it
●●●●●
High
Quietly backed
Super Mario Galaxy Movie
30%
#2 Super Mario Galaxy Movie
👥 People watching
●●●●●
High
💵 Money behind it
●●●●●
High
Attention and money aligned
Dune: Messiah
✦ Surprise
Dune: Messiah
👥 People watching
●●●●●
Low
💵 Money behind it
●●●●●
High
Quietly backed
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking highest grossing movie in 2026. Each team/candidate has their own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on teams they believe will win, or NO on teams they think will lose. The outcome will be determined based on official game results and championship announcements.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on team performance, injuries, playoff standings, odds movements, betting line shifts, and expert analysis. Trading volume of $958K shows significant market interest with 54 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market — you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve according to the title of the film with the highest 2026 gross according to the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses once data for December 31 is made available. Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2026 - dates outside of 2026 will not count toward this movie's gross. In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner. If there is no final data available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Feb 6, 2026
Market Launch
Market opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Dec 31, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

As of the latest prediction market data, Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? leads with approximately 41% probability. These odds reflect market sentiment, not polls or official projections.
Each candidate market is a separate YES/NO contract. You can buy YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them. Market inefficiencies, fees, and the possibility of unlisted candidates mean probabilities rarely sum to exactly 100%.
Prices reflect current market belief based on where traders are putting their money. A 28% price means the market currently believes there's a 28% chance of that outcome. Use the Crowd vs Money signals to understand how attention differs from conviction.
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Related Markets

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?41%$57KTrade
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026?30%$55KTrade
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?14%$103KTrade
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026?4%$67KTrade
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026?3%$45KTrade
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of 2026?2%$69KTrade
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