Today's Signal

Spider-Man: Brand New Day

Updated: 16h ago

Spider-Man: Brand New Day is ahead at 43% with Avengers: Doomsday at 28%, but the race is far from settled.
0%
New to prediction markets?
📊

Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~260 days
Total Volume
$3.5M
24h Change
+$92K
Active Markets
9
⚡

Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
#1 Spider-Man: Brand New Day
43%
Widely followed
People watching
Medium
Money behind it
Low
Avengers: Doomsday
#2 Avengers: Doomsday
28%
Limited activity
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
Michael
Michael✦ Surprise
1%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
📚

Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This event tracks highest grossing movie in 2026? (between Nov 12, 2025 and Dec 31, 2026). It matters because of material impact on outcomes and bragging rights and prediction accuracy. Market prices tend to move when there are primary sources and credible reporting, historical patterns and trends.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve according to the title of the film with the highest 2026 gross according to the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses once data for December 31 is made available. Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2026 - dates outside of 2026 will not count toward this movie's gross. In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner. If there is no final data available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

How accurate is Polymarket? See how markets compare to polls →

  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Nov 12, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Dec 31, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

💭
No analyst takes yet

Be the first to share your analysis on this market.

✍️ Submit Your Take

Frequently Asked Questions

Spider-Man: Brand New Day leads at 43%, with Avengers: Doomsday at 28% -- a 15-point lead 9 months out. $3.5M has traded across 436 positions with 260 days until resolution.
$3.5M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. At this stage, volume reflects ongoing reassessment as new information enters the market.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Spider-Man: Brand New Day's 43% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 43% chance of that outcome -- competitive but uncertain. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
📈

View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Highest grossing movie in 2026? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?43%-View market
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?28%-View market
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026?9%-View market
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026?4%-View market
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026?3%-View market
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of 2026?2%-View market
Trade on Polymarket →View All Nominee Markets

Go deeper

Basics

What is a prediction market?

Guide

Prediction markets explained: buying a dollar at a discount

Platforms

Compare prediction market platforms

Markets are live and updating as the race evolves.

Trade on PolymarketCompare Platforms