A beginner-friendly guide to reading market probabilities and making sense of the data
Prediction markets are places where people use real money to bet on whether future events will happen. Think of it like a stock market, but instead of trading company shares, people trade shares that pay out if a specific event occurs.
"Will it rain tomorrow?" - Market shows 70%
Because people are risking real money, they tend to research carefully and bet on their honest beliefs. This often makes prediction markets more accurate than polls or guesses.
Each market page shows you everything you need to understand what traders think will happen. Here's what the key sections mean:
The snapshot gives you a quick summary of what's happening right now in the market.
Simple yes or no questions. If it shows 65%, traders think there's a 65% chance YES happens.
Multiple possible answers. Each outcome shows its own probability. All probabilities add up to 100%.
Higher volume means more money at stake and usually more reliable odds. Look for markets with at least $10K+ volume.
More traders means more diverse opinions and perspectives factored into the probability.
Each market page includes recent news articles related to the topic. This helps you understand what's driving the probabilities.
If you see the market probability shift suddenly, check the news section. Often there's a recent article that explains why traders changed their minds.
Markets with more money bet (over $100K) tend to have more reliable probabilities because more traders have researched and committed capital.
Look for: Markets with 6-7 figure volumeMore traders means a wider range of perspectives and information. Markets with 100+ traders typically reflect better collective intelligence.
Look for: Markets with 100+ participantsGood markets have specific, unambiguous questions with objective ways to determine the outcome. Vague questions lead to disputed resolutions.
Look for: Markets with specific dates and clear outcomesActive markets with recent trades reflect current information. Stale markets may not account for recent developments.
Look for: Markets with trades in the last 24-48 hoursBrowse markets about subjects you already understand. This helps you judge if the probabilities make sense.
The snapshot gives you the big picture at a glance. Start there before diving into details.
Higher numbers mean more traders have weighed in. Markets with $100K+ volume are usually more reliable.
News articles explain what's happening and why probabilities might be changing.
Probabilities show what traders believe, not what will definitely happen. Use them as one input among many.
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