Today's Signal

June 30

Updated: 2h ago

June 30 is ahead at 29% with March 31 at 5%, but the race is far from settled.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~-145 days
Total Volume
$4.0M
24h Change
+$103K
Active Markets
2
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Moneyshows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
June 30
#1 June 30
30%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
March 31
#2 March 31
5%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Medium
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This event tracks whether the Israel and Hamas ceasefire will be cancelled by a specific party between October 9, 2025, and June 30, 2026. It matters because the outcome could have a significant impact on the conflict, leading to escalation and affecting international responses and potential sanctions. Market prices tend to move when there are official statements, verified incident confirmations, or credible reports from primary sources, as these can indicate a shift in the situation. Prices may also shift based on third-party monitoring and updates on the situation in the region.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/ This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Oct 10, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Oct 31, 2025
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

June 30 leads at 30%, with March 31 at 5% -- a commanding 25-point lead resolving soon. $4.0M has traded across 12,514 positions with 0 days until resolution.
$4.0M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. With resolution near, traders are locking in final positions based on latest information.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. June 30's 30% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 30% chance of that outcome -- unlikely but not impossible. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?30%-View market
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by March 31, 2026?5%-View market
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by October 31?0%-View market
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31?0%-View market
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by November 30?0%-View market
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by November 7?0%-View market
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