Today's Signal

December 31, 2026

Updated: 2 hours ago

The market strongly favors December 31, 2026 at 70%, with a commanding lead over the field.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~215 days
Total Volume
$1.7M
24h Change
+$45K
Active Markets
6
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
December 31, 2026
#1 December 31, 2026
70%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Medium
September 30, 2026
#2 September 30, 2026
28%
Limited activity
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
June 30, 2026
June 30, 2026✦ Surprise
1%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Medium
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking openai ipo by.... Each outcome has its own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on outcomes they believe will happen, or NO on outcomes they think won't. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible sources.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on official announcements, news developments, and expert analysis. Trading volume of $1.7M shows significant market interest with 1,732 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If OpenAI is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

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  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Oct 30, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Dec 31, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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Frequently Asked Questions

December 31, 2026 leads at 70%, with September 30, 2026 at 28% -- a commanding 42-point lead 7 months out. $1.7M has traded across 1,732 positions with 215 days until resolution.
$1.7M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. At this stage, volume reflects ongoing reassessment as new information enters the market.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. December 31, 2026's 70% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 70% chance of that outcome -- more likely than not. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the OpenAI IPO by...? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
December 31, 202670%$603KView market
September 30, 202628%$21KView market
August 31, 20265%$21KView market
July 31, 20262%$34KView market
June 30, 20261%$559KView market
December 31, 20250%$496KView market
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