Today's Signal

Russia capture Lyman by March 31, 2026?

Updated: 2 hours ago

Russia capture Lyman by March 31, 2026? is ahead at 39% with Russia capture Lyman by February 28, 2026? at 7%, but the race is far from settled.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~-36 days
Total Volume
$1.4M
24h Change
+$37K
Active Markets
2
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
Russia capture Lyman by March 31, 2026?
39%
#1 Russia capture Lyman by March 31, 2026?
πŸ‘₯ People watching
●●●●●
High
πŸ’΅ Money behind it
●●●●●
High
Attention and money aligned
Russia capture Lyman by February 28, 2026?
7%
#2 Russia capture Lyman by February 28, 2026?
πŸ‘₯ People watching
●●●●●
Low
πŸ’΅ Money behind it
●●●●●
Low
Attention and money aligned
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking will russia capture lyman by.... Each team/candidate has their own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on teams they believe will win, or NO on teams they think will lose. The outcome will be determined based on official game results and championship announcements.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on team performance, injuries, playoff standings, odds movements, betting line shifts, and expert analysis. Trading volume of $1.4M shows significant market interest with 3,823 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market β€” you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • βœ“Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • βœ“Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • βœ“This market will resolve to β€œYes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya PryvokzalΚΉna by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375 by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to β€œNo”. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png Train Station Location in Lyman: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station.jpeg Lyman Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/zeVSXaeDH93mF2WPA The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap https://deepstatemap.live/ may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Nov 1, 2025
Market Launch
Market opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Dec 31, 2025
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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Frequently Asked Questions

As of the latest prediction market data, Will Russia capture Lyman by March 31, 2026? leads with approximately 39% probability. These odds reflect market sentiment, not polls or official projections.
Each candidate market is a separate YES/NO contract. You can buy YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them. Market inefficiencies, fees, and the possibility of unlisted candidates mean probabilities rarely sum to exactly 100%.
Prices reflect current market belief based on where traders are putting their money. A 28% price means the market currently believes there's a 28% chance of that outcome. Use the Crowd vs Money signals to understand how attention differs from conviction.
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Will Russia capture Lyman by February 28, 2026?7%$38KTrade
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Will Russia capture Lyman by November 30?0%$142KTrade
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