Today's Signal

Mercedes

Updated: 2h ago

The market strongly leans toward Mercedes at 77%, though outcomes remain uncertain.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~256 days
Total Volume
$6.6M
24h Change
+$171K
Active Markets
11
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Moneyshows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Mercedes
#1 Mercedes
78%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
Ferrari
#2 Ferrari
14%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This event tracks F1 Constructors' Champion (between Dec 8, 2025 and Dec 6, 2026). It matters because of material impact on outcomes. Market prices tend to move when there are primary sources and credible reporting, deadline proximity and updates.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve according to the winner of the Constructors’ Championship for the 2026 F1 season. This market will resolve as soon as the official results of the final scheduled race of the 2026 F1 season are known. In the case of a tie between multiple teams, this market will resolve according to the tiebreak procedure used by F1 to determine the 2026 F1 Constructors’ champion. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 F1 Constructors’ Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), the corresponding market will resolve to “No.” If the F1 season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be information from F1.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Dec 9, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Dec 6, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

Mercedes leads at 78%, with Ferrari at 14% -- a commanding 64-point lead 9 months out. $6.6M has traded across 804 positions with 256 days until resolution.
$6.6M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. At this stage, volume reflects ongoing reassessment as new information enters the market.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Mercedes's 78% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 78% chance of that outcome -- more likely than not. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the F1 Constructors' Champion event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?78%-View market
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?14%-View market
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?4%-View market
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?2%-View market
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?1%-View market
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?1%-View market
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