Today's Signal

↑1k

Updated: 22h ago

No clear favorite yet-↑1k leads at 99% with ↑2k close at 99%, signaling a competitive race.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~237 days
Total Volume
$7.7M
24h Change
+$199K
Active Markets
9
⚡

Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
↑1k
#1 ↑1k
100%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
↑500
#2 ↑500
100%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
↑10k
↑10k✦ Surprise
8%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
High
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking measles cases in u.s. in 2026. Each outcome has its own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on outcomes they believe will happen, or NO on outcomes they think won't. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible sources.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on official announcements, news developments, and expert analysis. Trading volume of $7.7M shows significant market interest with 429 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

How accurate is Polymarket? See how markets compare to polls →

  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Dec 1, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Dec 31, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

↑1k leads at 100%, with ↑500 at 100% -- an unusually tight race -- only 0% separates them 8 months out. $7.7M has traded across 429 positions with 237 days until resolution.
$7.7M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. At this stage, volume reflects ongoing reassessment as new information enters the market.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. ↑1k's 100% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 100% chance of that outcome -- extremely likely to occur. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will there be at least 1000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?100%-View market
Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?100%-View market
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?99%-View market
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?60%-View market
Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?26%-View market
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?12%-View market
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