Today's Signal

December 31, 2026

Updated: 2h ago

No clear favorite yet-December 31, 2026 leads at 17% with September 30, 2026 close at 12%, signaling a competitive race.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~8 days
Total Volume
$5.5M
24h Change
+$144K
Active Markets
3
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Moneyshows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
December 31, 2026
#1 December 31, 2026
17%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
September 30, 2026
#2 September 30, 2026
12%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
June 30, 2026
June 30, 2026✦ Surprise
4%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Medium
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This event tracks Bitcoin all time high by ___? (between Dec 16, 2025 and Jan 1, 2027). It matters because of material impact on outcomes. Market prices tend to move when there are primary sources and credible reporting, deadline proximity and updates.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT between 16 December '25 10:30 and 11:59PM ET on the date specified in the title has a final “High” price that is higher than any previous Binance 1 minute candle's "High" price on any prior date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other sources or spot markets.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Dec 16, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Apr 1, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

December 31, 2026 leads at 17%, with September 30, 2026 at 12% -- a tight race, only 5% separates them 8 days out. $5.5M has traded across 3,723 positions with 8 days until resolution.
$5.5M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. With resolution near, traders are locking in final positions based on latest information.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. December 31, 2026's 17% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 17% chance of that outcome -- unlikely but not impossible. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Bitcoin all time high by ___? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?17%-View market
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?12%-View market
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026?4%-View market
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026?0%-View market
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