Today's Signal

December 31

Updated: 3h ago

December 31 is ahead at 21% with June 30 at 8%, but the race is far from settled.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~-106 days
Total Volume
$1.6M
24h Change
+$41K
Active Markets
2
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
December 31
#1 December 31
21%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
June 30
#2 June 30
8%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
High
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking nato x russia military clash by.... Each candidate has their own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on candidates they believe will win, or NO on candidates they think will lose. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible reporting.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on polling data, endorsements, fundraising numbers, debates, and major political developments. Trading volume of $1.6M shows significant market interest with 3,151 active participants.

This page tracks market sentiment, not official polls or endorsements.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of a NATO country and Russia between September 23 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between NATO and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify. Interception of missiles or other one-way attack or loitering munitions (e.g. Shahed drones) which are targeting a 3rd party other than the listed countries or their respective forces will not alone qualify. Shooting down UAVs which are not munitions (e.g. MQ-9, Orlan 10, Orion, Bayraktar TB2, etc.) will qualify. Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage. Military contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

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  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Sep 23, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Dec 31, 2025
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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Frequently Asked Questions

December 31 leads at 21%, with June 30 at 8% -- a 13-point lead resolving soon. $1.6M has traded across 3,151 positions with 0 days until resolution.
$1.6M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. With resolution near, traders are locking in final positions based on latest information.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. December 31's 21% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 21% chance of that outcome -- unlikely but not impossible. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the NATO x Russia military clash by...? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?21%-View market
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?8%-View market
NATO x Russia military clash in 2025?0%-View market
NATO x Russia military clash by March 31, 2026?0%-View market
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