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🔵 politics

Volume

$1142.6M

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Strong consensus forming

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?24%

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?9%

Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?9%

2026 FIFA World Cup Winner

Balanced market conditions

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?17%

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?17%

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?11%

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Strong consensus forming

Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?49%

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?36%

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?25%

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Strong consensus forming

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?19%

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?17%

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?15%

2026 NBA Champion

Strong consensus forming

Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?60%

Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?22%

Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?14%

English Premier League Winner

Strong consensus forming

Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?82%

Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?19%

Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League?1%

UEFA Champions League Winner

Strong consensus forming

Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?59%

Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?43%

Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?1%

Eurovision Winner 2026

Strong consensus forming

Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?52%

Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?15%

Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?7%

F1 Drivers' Champion

Balanced market conditions

Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?39%

Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?30%

Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?12%

Netanyahu out by...?

Strong consensus forming

Netanyahu out by end of 2026?44%

Netanyahu out by June 30?5%

Netanyahu out by March 31?1%

US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

Strong consensus forming

US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?65%

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?33%

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?10%

NBA MVP

Strong consensus forming

Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?98%

Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?2%

Will Trae Young win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?1%

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?63%

Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?23%

Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?9%

2026 NHL Stanley Cup Champion

Strong consensus forming

Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?38%

Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?38%

Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?13%

Brazil Presidential Election

Balanced market conditions

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?44%

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?30%

Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?8%

Next French Presidential Election

Balanced market conditions

Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?24%

Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?20%

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?11%

Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (10% vs 2%)

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Crowd higher (5% vs 1%)

2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Winner

Balanced market conditions

Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election80%

Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election21%

Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election1%

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?14%

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?8%

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?3%

What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 by December 31, 2026?99%

Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026?99%

Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?99%

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (16% vs 6%)

Colombia Presidential Election

Balanced market conditions

Will Candidate M win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?50%

Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?44%

Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?40%

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (32% vs 27%)

Fed Decision in June?

Balanced market conditions

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?98%

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?1%

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?1%

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?72%

Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?16%

Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?7%

NFL Champion 2027

Balanced market conditions

Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship?11%

Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship?10%

Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship?8%

2026 Men's French Open Winner

Balanced market conditions

Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open?71%

Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open?8%

Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open?5%

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (12% vs 7%)

MLB World Series Champion 2026

Balanced market conditions

Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series?26%

Will the New York Yankees win the 2026 World Series?14%

Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series?10%

What will happen before GTA VI?

Strong consensus forming

Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?99%

Will Drake release Iceman before GTA VI?99%

Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?66%

California Governor Election Winner

Balanced market conditions

Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?51%

Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?32%

Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?9%

NBA Playoffs: Western Conference Champion

Strong consensus forming

Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals?69%

Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals?30%

Will the Denver Nuggets win the NBA Western Conference Finals?1%

Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (5% vs 1%)

F1 Constructors' Champion

Balanced market conditions

Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?74%

Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?16%

Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?6%

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?13%

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?3%

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by February 28?1%

Which companies will be acquired before 2027?

Strong consensus forming

Will iRobot be acquired before 2027?99%

Will Warner Bros. Discovery be acquired before 2027?99%

Will Cursor be acquired before 2027?76%

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Crowd higher (18% vs 15%)

Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?51%

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?24%

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?11%

MLS Cup Winner 2026

Strong consensus forming

Will Inter Miami CF win the 2026 MLS Cup?17%

Will Los Angeles FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?10%

Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?10%

NBA Playoffs: Eastern Conference Champion

Strong consensus forming

Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?65%

Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?26%

Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?10%

What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?99%

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in May?99%

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?99%

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June?

Strong consensus forming

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of June?99%

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $56 by end of June?99%

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $65 by end of June?99%

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

Balanced market conditions

Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?8%

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?7%

Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?6%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?

Balanced market conditions

What price will Bitcoin hit in May?

Balanced market conditions

Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May?99%

Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?43%

Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?36%

Epstein suicide note released by...?

Strong consensus forming

Epstein suicide note released by May 31?8%

Epstein suicide note released by May 8?1%

GTA VI released before June 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (4% vs 1%)

Iran closes its airspace by...?

Strong consensus forming

Iran closes its airspace by June 30?55%

Iran closes its airspace by May 31?38%

Iran closes its airspace by May 24?26%

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

Strong consensus forming

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?27%

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?13%

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?6%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Crowd higher (7% vs 1%)

Iran leadership change by...?

Strong consensus forming

Iran leadership change by December 31?35%

Iran leadership change by June 30?14%

Iran leadership change by May 31?6%

Largest Company end of June?

Balanced market conditions

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?92%

Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?6%

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?2%

Elon Musk # tweets May 8 - May 15, 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?60%

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?35%

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?2%

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Crowd vs Money

Crowd higher (7% vs 1%)

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Crowd higher (7% vs 3%)

Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Balanced market conditions

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?41%

Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?39%

Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?12%

Trump out as President before 2027?

Balanced market conditions

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (19% vs 12%)

Iran leader end of 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?64%

Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?7%

Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026?5%

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (6% vs 2%)

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

Balanced market conditions

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?62%

Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?28%

Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?5%

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Will there be at least 1000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?99%

Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?99%

Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?99%

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?8%

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?1%

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?1%

Bitcoin all time high by ___?

Strong consensus forming

Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?17%

Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?9%

Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026?2%

Eurovision 2026: Televote Winner

Balanced market conditions

Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026?51%

Will Finland win the televote for Eurovision 2026?17%

Will Greece win the televote for Eurovision 2026?13%

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

Strong consensus forming

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?44%

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?16%

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?6%

Which company has the best AI model end of May?

Balanced market conditions

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?78%

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?21%

Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?1%

Highest grossing movie in 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?66%

Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?17%

Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026?6%

Printr public sale total commitments?

Strong consensus forming

Over $250k committed to the Printr public sale?99%

Over $2M committed to the Printr public sale?99%

Over $500k committed to the Printr public sale?99%

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Balanced market conditions

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House44%

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House34%

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House22%

Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?42%

Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?26%

Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?12%

How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?36%

Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?31%

Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026?19%

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?60%

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?17%

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.25% at the end of 2026?9%

IPOs before 2027?

Strong consensus forming

Once Upon a Farm IPO before 2027?99%

Cerebras IPO before 2027?99%

Wealthfront IPO before 2027?99%

Opensea FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Strong consensus forming

Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?73%

Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?70%

Opensea FDV above $300M one day after launch?65%

Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?

Balanced market conditions

Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?86%

Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?14%

Will Vicky Dávila win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?1%

Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?

Balanced market conditions

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?43%

Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?42%

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?4%

Which company has best AI model end of June?

Balanced market conditions

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?67%

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?24%

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?7%

What will SpaceX's public ticker be?

Strong consensus forming

Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker?66%

Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?27%

Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX?4%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Balanced market conditions

Elon Musk # tweets May 12 - May 19, 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?26%

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?24%

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?17%

Where will Trump and Putin meet next?

Strong consensus forming

Will Trump and Putin not meet?91%

Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia?4%

Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?2%