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🔵 politics

Volume

$1257.4M

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Balanced market conditions

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?21%

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?17%

Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?15%

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Balanced market conditions

Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?49%

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?45%

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?23%

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Balanced market conditions

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?23%

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?14%

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?13%

F1 Drivers' Champion

Balanced market conditions

Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?75%

Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?10%

Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?7%

Netanyahu out by...?

Strong consensus forming

Netanyahu out by end of 2026?45%

Netanyahu out by May 31?1%

Netanyahu out by July 31?1%

Brazil Presidential Election

Balanced market conditions

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?64%

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?28%

Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?7%

Next French Presidential Election

Balanced market conditions

Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?31%

Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?26%

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?14%

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?82%

Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?10%

Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?2%

Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (8% vs 2%)

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?5%

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?2%

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30?1%

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Crowd higher (18% vs 15%)

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?86%

Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?10%

Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?3%

Pro Football: 2027 Champion

Balanced market conditions

Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship?14%

Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship?9%

Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship?9%

California Governor Election Winner

Balanced market conditions

Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?93%

Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?7%

Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026?1%

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (8% vs 4%)

MLB World Series Champion 2026

Balanced market conditions

Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series?36%

Will the New York Yankees win the 2026 World Series?11%

Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?9%

Iran leader end of 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?81%

Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?5%

Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?3%

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (11% vs 4%)

Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Balanced market conditions

Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?52%

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?28%

Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?6%

Fed Decision in September?

Balanced market conditions

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?73%

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?28%

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?1%

New "Stranger Things" episode released by...?

Strong consensus forming

New "Stranger Things" episode released by March 31, 2027?8%

New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? 5%

New "Stranger Things" episode released by May 31? 1%

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

Strong consensus forming

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?8%

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30?2%

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30?1%

Ballon d'Or Winner 2026

Balanced market conditions

Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?59%

Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?16%

Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?8%

F1 Constructors' Champion

Strong consensus forming

Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?84%

Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?12%

Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?2%

When will Bitcoin hit $150k?

Strong consensus forming

Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?3%

Will Bitcoin hit $150k by September 30?1%

Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31?1%

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (16% vs 7%)

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

Strong consensus forming

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 18?99%

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 20?99%

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?99%

Iran leadership change by...?

Strong consensus forming

Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?26%

Iran leadership change by December 31?19%

Iran leadership change by November 30?13%

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

Balanced market conditions

Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?8%

Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?6%

Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?4%

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

Strong consensus forming

Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?12%

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?8%

Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?2%

MLS Cup Winner 2026

Strong consensus forming

Will Inter Miami CF win the 2026 MLS Cup?28%

Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?15%

Will Los Angeles FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?12%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?

Balanced market conditions

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?2%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?1%

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

Balanced market conditions

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?70%

Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?20%

Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?6%

Which companies will be acquired before 2027?

Strong consensus forming

Will Warner Bros. Discovery be acquired before 2027?99%

Will iRobot be acquired before 2027?99%

Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027?99%

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

Strong consensus forming

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?8%

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by October 31, 2026?6%

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?1%

NBA: 2027 Champion

Balanced market conditions

Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals?22%

Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals?21%

Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?13%

Highest grossing movie in 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?93%

Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?7%

Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026?1%

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

Balanced market conditions

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?19%

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?11%

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?6%

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

Balanced market conditions

US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?82%

US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?67%

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?53%

Los Angeles Mayoral Election

Strong consensus forming

Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?67%

Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?34%

Will Rick Caruso win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?1%

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (11% vs 5%)

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (9% vs 4%)

Trump out as President before 2027?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Crowd higher (7% vs 2%)

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Crowd higher (6% vs 2%)

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Balanced market conditions

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House50%

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House38%

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House13%

What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Will Ethereum reach $1,750 by December 31, 2026?99%

Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 by December 31, 2026?99%

Bitcoin all time high by ___?

Strong consensus forming

Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?5%

Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026?1%

Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026?1%

Which party will win the House in 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?88%

Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?13%

Will MetaMask launch a token by ___ ?

Strong consensus forming

Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026?12%

Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?3%

Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025?1%

Iran full airspace closure by...?

Strong consensus forming

Iran full airspace closure by December 31?33%

Iran full airspace closure by September 30?17%

Iran full airspace closure by August 31?9%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (49% vs 47%)

NBA: 2026-27 Rookie of the Year

Strong consensus forming

Will Player A win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?50%

Will Player B win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?50%

Will Player C win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?50%

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?99%

Will there be at least 1000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?99%

Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?99%

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?3%

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?1%

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?1%

Will Base launch a token by ___ ?

Strong consensus forming

Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2027?53%

Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027?34%

Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?7%

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (55% vs 52%)

How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?57%

Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?29%

Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026?3%

US military action against Cuba by...?

Strong consensus forming

US strike on Cuba by December 31?20%

US strike on Cuba by January 31?1%

US strike on Cuba by March 31?1%

UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion

Balanced market conditions

Will Team A win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?50%

Will Team B win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?50%

Will Team C win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?50%

IPOs before 2027?

Strong consensus forming

Cerebras IPO before 2027?99%

SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?99%

Wealthfront IPO before 2027?99%

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Crowd higher (21% vs 17%)

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?39%

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?24%

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?14%

2026 Women’s US Open Winner (Tennis)

Balanced market conditions

Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s US Open?25%

Will Iga Swiatek win the 2026 Women’s US Open?13%

Will Elena Rybakina win the 2026 Women’s US Open?10%

Opensea FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Strong consensus forming

Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?14%

Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?14%

Where will Maxx Crosby play in 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Will Maxx Crosby play for Las Vegas Raiders next?83%

Will Maxx Crosby play for Dallas Cowboys next?10%

Will Maxx Crosby play for Philadelphia Eagles next?4%

Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?3%

Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30?1%

Will US withdraw from NATO by August 31?1%

2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis)

Balanced market conditions

Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's US Open?51%

Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?13%

Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's US Open?13%

Pro Football: 2027 NFC Champion

Balanced market conditions

Will Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?24%

Will Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?13%

Will Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?9%

Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Strong consensus forming

Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?88%

Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?82%

Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?74%

What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in August 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in August?99%

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in August?99%

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in August?99%

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

Strong consensus forming

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?27%

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?12%

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?3%

Largest Company end of December 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?73%

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?14%

Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?12%

What price will Bitcoin hit in August?

Balanced market conditions

Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in August?99%

Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?99%

Clacton by-election Winner

Balanced market conditions

Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?99%

Will Person E win the Clacton by-election?50%

Will Person F win the Clacton by-election?50%

Puffpaw FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Strong consensus forming

Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch?21%

Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?21%

Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch?16%

EPL: 2027 Champion

Balanced market conditions

Will Team A win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?50%

Will Team B win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?50%

Will Team C win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?50%

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?71%

Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?27%

Will xAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?26%

Where will Tyreek Hill play in 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Will Tyreek Hill play for the Kansas City Chiefs next?16%

Will Tyreek Hill play for the Las Vegas Raiders next?11%

Will Tyreek Hill play for the Los Angeles Chargers next?4%

Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Crowd higher (5% vs 1%)

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place

Balanced market conditions

Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?82%

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?8%

Will Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?8%

MLB: 2026 American League Champion

Balanced market conditions

Will New York Yankees win the 2026 American League Championship Series?25%

Will Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 American League Championship Series?21%

Will Boston Red Sox win the 2026 American League Championship Series?15%

Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?

Balanced market conditions

Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?63%

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?14%

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?11%

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

Strong consensus forming

NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?23%

NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?8%

NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?3%

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?

Strong consensus forming

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31?16%

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by October 31?1%

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31?1%

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?53%

Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?48%

MLB: 2026 National League Champion

Balanced market conditions

Will Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 National League Championship Series?47%

Will Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 National League Championship Series?17%

Will Atlanta Braves win the 2026 National League Championship Series?13%

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Crowd higher (34% vs 31%)

Pro Football: 2027 AFC Champion

Balanced market conditions

Will Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship?16%

Will Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship?14%

Will Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship?10%

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?8%

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?1%

Florida Governor Republican Primary Winner

Balanced market conditions

Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?98%

Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?2%

Will Wilton Simpson be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?1%

LCK 2026 Season Winner

Strong consensus forming

Will Gen.G Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?33%

Will Hanwha Life Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?24%

Will T1 win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?24%

Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?

Strong consensus forming

Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?10%

Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?1%

Next Prime Minister of Sweden

Balanced market conditions

Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?84%

Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?14%

Will Jimmie Åkesson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?2%

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?38%

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?6%

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?2%

US strike on Mexico by...?

Strong consensus forming

US strike on Mexico by December 31?12%

US strike on Mexico by January 31?1%

US strike on Mexico by March 31?1%

Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?43%

Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?1%

Will Hamas agree to disarm by November 30?1%

Extended FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Balanced market conditions

Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?74%

Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?38%

Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?13%

Next Prime Minister of Romania?

Balanced market conditions

Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania?48%

Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?20%

Will Radu Burnete be the next Prime Minister of Romania?6%

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Strong consensus forming

Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?67%

Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?31%

Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record?2%