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🔵 politics

Volume

$1287.0M

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Strong consensus forming

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?17%

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?16%

Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?15%

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Balanced market conditions

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?21%

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?13%

Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?11%

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Balanced market conditions

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?50%

Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?49%

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?15%

F1 Drivers' Champion

Strong consensus forming

Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?92%

Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?5%

Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?1%

Brazil Presidential Election

Balanced market conditions

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?58%

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?43%

Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?1%

Next French Presidential Election

Balanced market conditions

Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?46%

Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?19%

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?13%

Netanyahu out by...?

Strong consensus forming

Netanyahu out by end of 2026?46%

Netanyahu out by May 31?1%

Netanyahu out by July 31?1%

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?70%

Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?25%

Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?3%

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

Strong consensus forming

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?8%

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?2%

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?1%

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?3%

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30?1%

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?1%

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (20% vs 17%)

Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (3% vs 1%)

Pro Football: 2027 Champion

Balanced market conditions

Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship?14%

Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship?12%

Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship?9%

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?96%

Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?2%

Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?1%

UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion

Balanced market conditions

Will another team win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?50%

Will Team H win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?50%

Will Team I win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?50%

Ballon d'Or Winner 2026

Balanced market conditions

Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?46%

Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?43%

Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?3%

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (10% vs 2%)

MLB World Series Champion 2026

Strong consensus forming

Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series?31%

Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?17%

Will the New York Yankees win the 2026 World Series?16%

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Balanced market conditions

Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?46%

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?34%

Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?14%

California Governor Election Winner

Balanced market conditions

Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?96%

Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?4%

Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026?1%

Iran leader end of 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?87%

Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?5%

Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?3%

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (7% vs 3%)

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

Strong consensus forming

US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?72%

US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?52%

US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?37%

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

Strong consensus forming

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 18?99%

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 20?99%

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?99%

New "Stranger Things" episode released by...?

Strong consensus forming

New "Stranger Things" episode released by March 31, 2027?6%

New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? 2%

New "Stranger Things" episode released by May 31? 1%

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

Strong consensus forming

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?6%

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30?1%

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?1%

F1 Constructors' Champion

Strong consensus forming

Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?98%

Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?1%

Will Red Bull Racing be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?1%

When will Bitcoin hit $150k?

Strong consensus forming

Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2027?28%

Will Bitcoin hit $150k by September 30, 2027?23%

Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2027?17%

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

Strong consensus forming

Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?10%

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?3%

Putin out as President of Russia by July 31, 2026?1%

Iran leadership change by...?

Strong consensus forming

Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?23%

Iran leadership change by December 31?12%

Iran leadership change by November 30?6%

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Crowd higher (7% vs 3%)

2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis)

Balanced market conditions

Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's US Open?99%

Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's US Open?1%

Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?1%

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

Balanced market conditions

Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?16%

Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?6%

Will Save the Children win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?6%

Fed Decision in October?

Balanced market conditions

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?83%

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?18%

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?1%

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Crowd higher (5% vs 1%)

NBA: 2027 Champion

Balanced market conditions

Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals?23%

Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals?19%

Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals?13%

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?4%

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?1%

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by January 31?1%

MLS Cup Winner 2026

Strong consensus forming

Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?22%

Will Nashville SC win the 2026 MLS Cup?19%

Will Inter Miami CF win the 2026 MLS Cup?16%

EPL: 2027 Champion

Balanced market conditions

Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?62%

Will Team A win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?50%

Will Team B win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?50%

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

Strong consensus forming

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?13%

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?7%

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?2%

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (10% vs 3%)

Which companies will be acquired before 2027?

Strong consensus forming

Will Warner Bros. Discovery be acquired before 2027?99%

Will iRobot be acquired before 2027?99%

Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027?99%

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

Strong consensus forming

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?8%

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by October 31, 2026?3%

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?1%

Highest grossing movie in 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?96%

Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?4%

Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026?1%

What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Will Ethereum reach $2,750 by December 31, 2026?99%

Will Ethereum reach $2,500 by December 31, 2026?99%

Will Ethereum reach $2,250 by December 31, 2026?99%

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Balanced market conditions

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House64%

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House30%

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House7%

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

Strong consensus forming

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?18%

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?8%

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?1%

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (8% vs 3%)

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?3%

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2025?1%

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?1%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Crowd higher (21% vs 18%)

Which party will win the House in 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?94%

Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?7%

Trump out as President before 2027?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (12% vs 4%)

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (6% vs 3%)

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (9% vs 3%)

Bitcoin all time high by ___?

Strong consensus forming

Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?7%

Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026?1%

Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026?1%

Iran full airspace closure by...?

Strong consensus forming

Iran full airspace closure by December 31?19%

Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?8%

Iran full airspace closure by June 30?1%

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place

Balanced market conditions

Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?75%

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?25%

Will Tarcisio de Freitas finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?1%

Will MetaMask launch a token by ___ ?

Strong consensus forming

Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026?6%

Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025?1%

Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30?1%

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

Strong consensus forming

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?3%

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by April 30, 2026?1%

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?1%

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

Balanced market conditions

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2027?69%

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2027?65%

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2027?61%

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

Strong consensus forming

NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?21%

NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?11%

NATO x Russia military clash in 2025?1%

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Will there be at least 3500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?99%

Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?99%

Will there be at least 1000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?99%

Will Base launch a token by ___ ?

Strong consensus forming

Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2027?44%

Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027?36%

Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?7%

NBA: 2026-27 Rookie of the Year

Strong consensus forming

Will Player A win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?50%

Will Player B win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?50%

Will Player C win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?50%

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?3%

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?1%

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?1%

Largest Company end of December 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?82%

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?13%

Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?5%

How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?78%

Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?12%

Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026?4%

US military action against Cuba by...?

Strong consensus forming

US strike on Cuba by December 31?11%

US strike on Cuba by January 31?1%

US strike on Cuba by March 31?1%

LALIGA: 2027 Champion

Balanced market conditions

Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?81%

Will Team A win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?50%

Will Team B win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?50%

IPOs before 2027?

Strong consensus forming

Cerebras IPO before 2027?99%

SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?99%

Wealthfront IPO before 2027?99%

Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?

Strong consensus forming

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?19%

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31?6%

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30?1%

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?49%

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?22%

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?16%

Opensea FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Strong consensus forming

Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?12%

Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?11%

Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?11%

Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Strong consensus forming

Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?84%

Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?82%

Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?74%

María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?42%

Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 31?28%

Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?1%

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?58%

Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?41%

Will xAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?26%

Pro Football: 2027 NFC Champion

Balanced market conditions

Will Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?18%

Will San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?18%

Will Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?13%

Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?3%

Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30?1%

Will US withdraw from NATO by August 31?1%

Russia nuclear test by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?5%

Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by November 30 2025?1%

Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2025?1%

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

Balanced market conditions

US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 20?99%

US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?99%

US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?99%

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?65%

Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?36%

Puffpaw FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Strong consensus forming

Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch?28%

Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?26%

Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch?15%

Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?6%

Will Russia invade a NATO country in 2025?1%

Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?1%

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

Balanced market conditions

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?99%

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by December 31?99%

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?99%

Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (5% vs 3%)

Crude Oil all time high by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?11%

Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by May 31?1%

Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30?1%

MLB: 2026 American League Champion

Balanced market conditions

Will New York Yankees win the 2026 American League Championship Series?34%

Will Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 American League Championship Series?28%

Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 American League Championship Series?22%

Next Prime Minister of Romania?

Balanced market conditions

Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania?35%

Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?22%

Will Leonardo Badea be the next Prime Minister of Romania?15%

Epstein client list released by...?

Strong consensus forming

Epstein client list released by October 31?2%

Epstein client list released by July 31?1%

Epstein client list released in 2025?1%

Anthropic IPO by __?

Strong consensus forming

Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?83%

Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?82%

Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?70%

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?39%

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?7%

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?1%

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?

Strong consensus forming

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31?5%

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by October 31?1%

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31?1%

MLB: 2026 National League Champion

Balanced market conditions

Will Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 National League Championship Series?42%

Will Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 National League Championship Series?27%

Will San Diego Padres win the 2026 National League Championship Series?16%

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2027?9%

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?3%

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?1%

Extended FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Strong consensus forming

Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?67%

Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?38%

Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?20%

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (33% vs 31%)

Pro Football: 2027 AFC Champion

Balanced market conditions

Will Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship?23%

Will Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship?16%

Will Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship?14%

Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?14%

Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?1%

Will Hamas agree to disarm by November 30?1%

Fed rate cut by...?

Balanced market conditions

Fed rate cut by July 2027 meeting?49%

Fed rate cut by April 2027 meeting?34%

Fed rate cut by June 2027 meeting?28%

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

Balanced market conditions

Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?94%

Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey before 2027?1%

Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia before 2027?1%