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🔵 politics

Volume

$907.8M

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Strong consensus forming

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?24%

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?8%

Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?6%

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Strong consensus forming

Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?49%

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?37%

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?26%

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Balanced market conditions

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?19%

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?16%

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?12%

2026 FIFA World Cup Winner

Balanced market conditions

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?15%

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?13%

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?11%

English Premier League Winner

Strong consensus forming

Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?89%

Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?12%

Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League?1%

2026 NBA Champion

Strong consensus forming

Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?40%

Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?14%

Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?11%

UEFA Champions League Winner

Strong consensus forming

Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?28%

Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?23%

Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?17%

La Liga Winner

Strong consensus forming

Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?79%

Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga?21%

Will Celta Vigo win the 2025–26 La Liga?1%

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?63%

Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?14%

Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?13%

What price will Bitcoin hit in March?

Balanced market conditions

Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March?99%

Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in March?99%

Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?23%

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of March?

Strong consensus forming

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?99%

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March?99%

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $75 by end of March?99%

Netanyahu out by...?

Strong consensus forming

Netanyahu out by end of 2026?53%

Netanyahu out by June 30?11%

Netanyahu out by April 30?4%

NBA MVP

Strong consensus forming

Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?84%

Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?8%

Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?7%

2026 NHL Stanley Cup Champion

Balanced market conditions

Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?20%

Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?14%

Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?11%

Augusta National Invitational - Winner

Balanced market conditions

Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament?17%

Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?9%

Will Bryson Dechambeau win the 2026 Masters tournament?7%

F1 Drivers' Champion

Balanced market conditions

Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?56%

Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?18%

Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?7%

Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (10% vs 4%)

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (4% vs 1%)

US x Iran ceasefire by...?

Strong consensus forming

US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?78%

US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?67%

US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?61%

Eurovision Winner 2026

Balanced market conditions

Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?38%

Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?13%

Will France win Eurovision 2026?12%

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Crowd higher (9% vs 2%)

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?

High FOMO activity - surge in new positions

Crowd vs Money

Crowd higher (99% vs 95%)

Brazil Presidential Election

Strong consensus forming

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?46%

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?40%

Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?5%

US forces enter Iran by..?

Strong consensus forming

US forces enter Iran by December 31?63%

US forces enter Iran by April 30?51%

US forces enter Iran by March 31?14%

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

Strong consensus forming

What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 by December 31, 2026?99%

Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026?99%

Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?99%

Fed decision in April?

Balanced market conditions

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?95%

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?3%

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?1%

Hungary Parliamentary Election Winner

Strong consensus forming

Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?66%

Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?35%

Will the Democratic Coalition (DK) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?1%

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Crowd higher (21% vs 17%)

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

Balanced market conditions

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?17%

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31?1%

What will happen before GTA VI?

Balanced market conditions

Will Drake release Iceman before GTA VI?95%

New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?66%

New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?63%

Next French Presidential Election

Balanced market conditions

Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?25%

Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?22%

Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?10%

What price will Ethereum hit in March?

Balanced market conditions

Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in March?99%

Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in March?99%

Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March?22%

NBA Western Conference Champion

Strong consensus forming

Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals?51%

Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals?22%

Will the Denver Nuggets win the NBA Western Conference Finals?12%

2026 NCAA Tournament Winner

Balanced market conditions

Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?21%

Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?20%

Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?18%

Largest Company end of March?

Balanced market conditions

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?99%

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?1%

Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?1%

Which companies will be acquired before 2027?

Strong consensus forming

Will iRobot be acquired before 2027?99%

Will Warner Bros. Discovery be acquired before 2027?99%

Will Caesars Entertainment, Inc. be acquired before 2027?64%

French Ligue 1 Winner

Strong consensus forming

Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?92%

Will Lens win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?6%

Will Monaco win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?1%

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?14%

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2025?1%

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?1%

MegaETH market cap (FDV) one day after launch?

Strong consensus forming

MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?55%

MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch?41%

MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?32%

NBA Eastern Conference Champion

Strong consensus forming

Will the Boston Celtics win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?36%

Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?22%

Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?17%

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Strong consensus forming

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?29%

Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?26%

Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?19%

GTA VI released before June 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (10% vs 2%)

Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Balanced market conditions

Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?95%

Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?2%

Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?2%

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (37% vs 32%)

Trump out as President by March 31?

Balanced market conditions

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (6% vs 1%)

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?23%

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?13%

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?7%

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

Balanced market conditions

Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?10%

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?8%

Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?8%

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?

Balanced market conditions

Crowd vs Money

Crowd higher (9% vs 6%)

Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by March 31?

Strong consensus forming

Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?13%

Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?10%

Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?4%

Which company has the best AI model end of March?

Balanced market conditions

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?97%

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?1%

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?1%

Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (19% vs 16%)

NFL Champion 2027

Balanced market conditions

Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship?12%

Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship?9%

Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship?8%

Will Trump visit China by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will Trump visit China by June 30?71%

Will Trump visit China by May 31?62%

Will Trump visit China by April 30?28%

MLB World Series Champion 2026

Balanced market conditions

Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series?28%

Will the New York Yankees win the 2026 World Series?8%

Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series?8%

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (19% vs 9%)

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Will there be at least 1000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?99%

Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?99%

Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?98%

2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Winner

Balanced market conditions

Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election79%

Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election8%

Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election6%

edgeX FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Strong consensus forming

EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch?83%

EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch?52%

EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch?30%

Will Trump meet with Putin again by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will Trump meet with Putin by August 31?1%

Will Trump meet with Putin by September 30?1%

Will Trump meet with Putin by October 31?1%

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?

Strong consensus forming

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?83%

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?71%

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?60%

F1 Constructors' Champion

Balanced market conditions

Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?78%

Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?14%

Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?3%

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?

Strong consensus forming

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?78%

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?57%

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?45%

Bitcoin all time high by ___?

Strong consensus forming

Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?17%

Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?12%

Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026?4%

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

Balanced market conditions

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?47%

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?43%

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?31%

MLS Cup Winner 2026

Balanced market conditions

Will Inter Miami CF win the 2026 MLS Cup?24%

Will Los Angeles FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?19%

Will San Diego FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?10%

Opensea FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Strong consensus forming

Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?67%

Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?66%

Opensea FDV above $300M one day after launch?51%

Puffpaw FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Strong consensus forming

Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch?69%

Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?42%

Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch?16%

Kings vs. Hornets

High FOMO activity - surge in new positions

LaMelo Ball: Points O/U 19.599%

Coby White: Points O/U 15.599%

Moussa Diabaté: Points O/U 8.599%

Trump out as President before 2027?

Strong consensus forming

IPOs before 2027?

Strong consensus forming

Once Upon a Farm IPO before 2027?99%

Wealthfront IPO before 2027?99%

Cerebras IPO before 2027?92%

Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by March 31?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (8% vs 3%)

Elon Musk # tweets March 20 - March 27, 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?24%

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?22%

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?14%

Iran leadership change by...?

Strong consensus forming

Iran leadership change by December 31?55%

Iran leadership change by June 30?32%

Iran leadership change by May 31?27%

California Governor Election Winner

Balanced market conditions

Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?60%

Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?11%

Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?8%

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

Strong consensus forming

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?71%

Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?20%

Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?7%

Elon Musk musk # tweets in April 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Will Elon Musk post 1360-1399 tweets in April 2026?8%

Will Elon Musk post 1400-1439 tweets in April 2026?8%

Will Elon Musk post 1280-1319 tweets in April 2026?6%

Slovenian Parliamentary Election Winner

Strong consensus forming

Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?98%

Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?1%

Will the Social Democrats (SD) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?1%

Iran leader end of 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?44%

Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?14%

Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026?10%

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Balanced market conditions

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House50%

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House36%

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House16%

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?

Strong consensus forming

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?30%

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by March 31, 2026?5%

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by October 31?1%

What price will Solana hit in March?

Balanced market conditions

Will Solana reach $90 in March?99%

Will Solana dip to $0 in March?50%

Will Solana reach $100 in March?34%

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?9%

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?2%

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?1%

Epstein client list released by...?

Strong consensus forming

Epstein client list released by June 30?11%

Epstein client list released in 2025?1%

Will another country strike Iran by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will another country strike Iran by March 31?16%

Will another country strike Iran by March 7?1%

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Crowd vs Money

Crowd higher (16% vs 14%)

Fed Decision in June?

Balanced market conditions

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?87%

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?8%

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?5%

What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by December 31, 2026?99%

Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 by December 31, 2026?99%

Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?65%

Peru Presidential Election Winner

Balanced market conditions

Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?36%

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?16%

Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?16%

Pelicans vs. Knicks

Strong consensus forming

Mitchell Robinson: Points O/U 5.599%

Herbert Jones: Assists O/U 2.599%

Jordan Clarkson: Assists O/U 1.599%

Based FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Balanced market conditions

Based FDV above $50M one day after launch?66%

Based FDV above $75M one day after launch?31%

Based FDV above $100M one day after launch?15%

Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (17% vs 13%)

Largest Company end of June?

Balanced market conditions

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?81%

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?9%

Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?7%

Elon Musk musk # tweets in March 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in March 2026?40%

Will Elon Musk post 1360-1399 tweets in March 2026?23%

Will Elon Musk post 1320-1359 tweets in March 2026?19%

Where will Trump and Putin meet next?

Strong consensus forming

Will Trump and Putin not meet?82%

Will Trump and Putin meet next in another country?3%

Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country?3%

US strike on Mexico by...?

Strong consensus forming

US strike on Mexico by December 31?20%

US strike on Mexico by January 31?1%

US strike on Mexico by March 31?1%

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (15% vs 13%)