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🔵 politics

Volume

$606.9M

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Strong consensus forming

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?30%

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?8%

Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?6%

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Balanced market conditions

Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?95%

Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?8%

archWill Trump nominate James Bullard as the next Fed chair?4%

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Strong consensus forming

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?49%

Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?49%

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?12%

US strikes Iran by...?

Strong consensus forming

US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?52%

US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?40%

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?28%

Portugal Presidential Election

Balanced market conditions

Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?99%

Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?1%

Will Rui Moreira win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?1%

Which coalition will form the next Dutch government?

Strong consensus forming

Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66?98%

archived Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA + D66?61%

archived Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + CDA + D66?56%

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (15% vs 13%)

What will happen before GTA VI?

Strong consensus forming

Will Drake release Iceman before GTA VI?94%

Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?61%

New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?61%

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?70%

Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?12%

Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?10%

Elon Musk # tweets January 30 - February 6, 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?72%

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?23%

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?5%

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Crowd higher (8% vs 1%)

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?12%

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?3%

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2025?1%

US/Israel strikes Iran by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will US or Israel strike Iran by December 31, 2026?64%

Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026?54%

Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?42%

Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by...?

Strong consensus forming

Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30?1%

Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31?1%

Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by October 31?1%

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Strong consensus forming

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Crowd vs Money

Crowd higher (43% vs 40%)

US next strikes Iran on...?

Balanced market conditions

Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026?72%

Will the US next strike Iran on February 8, 2026 (ET)?5%

Will the US next strike Iran on February 7, 2026 (ET)?3%

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (18% vs 12%)

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Crowd higher (20% vs 17%)

Elon Musk # tweets February 3 - February 10, 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?18%

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?17%

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?15%

Will Khamenei leave Iran by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31?6%

Will Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026?3%

Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday?1%

Will Trump meet with Putin again by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will Trump meet with Putin by March 31, 2026?13%

Will Trump meet with Putin by August 31?1%

Will Trump meet with Putin by September 30?1%

Thailand Legislative Election Winner

Strong consensus forming

Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?69%

Will Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?31%

Will Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?1%

Next leader out of power before 2027?

Strong consensus forming

Will Dick Schoof be the next leader out before 2027?84%

Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?7%

Will Ali Khamenei be the next leader out before 2027?3%

How many people will Trump deport in 2025?

Strong consensus forming

Will Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people?89%

Will Trump deport less than 250,000?5%

Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people?4%

Next French Presidential Election

Balanced market conditions

Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?31%

Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?14%

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?12%

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?88%

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?46%

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28?20%

Next President of Vietnam

Strong consensus forming

Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam?90%

Will Trần Thanh Mẫn be the next President of Vietnam?7%

Will Phan Văn Giang be the next President of Vietnam?2%

Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by...?

Strong consensus forming

Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by June 30, 2026?50%

Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?40%

Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by June 27? 1%

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (32% vs 28%)

Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Crowd higher (33% vs 29%)

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

Balanced market conditions

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?13%

Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?9%

Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?9%

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

Strong consensus forming

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (34% vs 31%)

Epstein client list released by...?

Strong consensus forming

Epstein client list released by June 30?21%

Epstein client list released in 2025?1%

María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31?26%

Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?1%

Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 9?1%

Colombia Presidential Election

Balanced market conditions

Will Candidate M win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?50%

Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?38%

Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?38%

What will Trump say this week (February 8)?

Strong consensus forming

Will Trump say "Autopen" or "Auto Pen" this week? (February 8)99%

Will Trump say "Submarine" or "Helicopter" this week? (February 8)99%

Will Trump say "Cuba" or "Cigar" this week? (February 8)99%

Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner

Strong consensus forming

Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?55%

Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?34%

Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?9%

Trump out as President before 2027?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (21% vs 17%)

Nicolás Maduro released from custody by...?

Strong consensus forming

Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?14%

Nicolás Maduro released from custody by January 9, 2026?1%

Nicolás Maduro released from custody by January 31, 2026?1%

How much spending will DOGE cut in 2025?

Strong consensus forming

Will Elon and DOGE cut less than $50b in federal spending in 2025?96%

Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025?2%

Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025?1%

Will Tim Walz resign by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026?17%

Will Tim Walz resign by June 30?7%

Will Tim Walz resign by January 31?1%

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (8% vs 3%)

Trump out as President by March 31?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (8% vs 3%)

Starmer out by...?

Strong consensus forming

Starmer out by December 31, 2026?65%

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?41%

Starmer out by February 28, 2026?8%

US strike on Mexico by...?

Strong consensus forming

US strike on Mexico by December 31?25%

US strike on Mexico by March 31?6%

US strike on Mexico by January 31?1%

Yoon Suk Yeol Insurrection Case Prison Time?

Strong consensus forming

Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to at least 30 years in prison?93%

Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to no prison time?4%

Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to 5–10 years in prison?1%

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...?

Strong consensus forming

Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?17%

Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, 2026?9%

Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2025?1%

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?

Strong consensus forming

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30?44%

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 31?23%

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by October 31?1%

X banned in U.K. by March 31?

Strong consensus forming

Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by December 31?71%

Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30?56%

Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by January 31?1%

Another US strike on Venezuela by...?

Strong consensus forming

Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31?20%

Another US strike on Venezuela by March 31?4%

Another US strike on Venezuela by January 31?1%

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Balanced market conditions

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House45%

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House36%

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House17%

Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (8% vs 2%)

Elon Musk # tweets February 6 - February 13, 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?14%

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?11%

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?11%

Ilhan Omar town hall attack staged?

Balanced market conditions

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (9% vs 1%)

Putin out as President of Russia by end of 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (14% vs 11%)

Prime Minister of Japan after snap election?

Balanced market conditions

Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?99%

Will Shinjirō Koizumi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?1%

Will Yoshihiko Noda be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?1%

Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (43% vs 39%)

Ukraine election held by...?

Strong consensus forming

Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?24%

Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?8%

Ukraine election held by December 31, 2025?1%

Macron out by...?

Strong consensus forming

Macron out by June 30, 2026?4%

Macron out in 2025?1%

Macron out by October 31, 2025?1%

Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?5%

Will Russia invade a NATO country in 2025?1%

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Balanced market conditions

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (14% vs 10%)

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

Balanced market conditions

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?71%

Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?22%

Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?6%

Will Ilhan Omar resign by March 31?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (8% vs 3%)

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?37%

Will Hamas agree to disarm by March 31?19%

Will Hamas agree to disarm by February 28?6%

Turnout in 2025 Honduran General Election

Strong consensus forming

Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 55% and 60%?67%

Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and 65%?16%

Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be less than 55%?10%

Will Russia capture Lyman by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will Russia capture Lyman by March 31, 2026?39%

Will Russia capture Lyman by February 28, 2026?7%

Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31?1%

Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by...?

Strong consensus forming

Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?31%

Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by March 31?16%

Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by February 28?7%

Portugal Presidential Election Margin of Victory: Second Round

Balanced market conditions

Will António José Seguro win the second round by 30–40%?56%

Will António José Seguro win the second round by 40–50%?23%

Will António José Seguro win the second round by 20–30%?17%

US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Crowd higher (96% vs 91%)

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (27% vs 22%)

Elon Musk # tweets February 5 - February 7, 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?42%

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?35%

Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?13%

Ukraine election called by...?

Strong consensus forming

Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026?18%

Ukraine election called by March 31, 2026?5%

Ukraine election called in 2025?1%

Will tariffs generate >$250b in 2025?

Strong consensus forming

Iran Strike on Israel by...?

Strong consensus forming

Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?21%

Iran Strike on Israel by January 15?1%

Iran Strike on Israel by January 31?1%

US strike on Colombia by...?

Strong consensus forming

US strike on Colombia by December 31?18%

US strike on Colombia by March 31?4%

US strike on Colombia by January 31?1%

US forces enter Venezuela again by...?

Strong consensus forming

US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?19%

US forces in Venezuela again by January 31, 2026?1%

US forces in Venezuela again by January 10, 2026?1%

Maduro's Wife Cilia Flores released from custody by...?

Strong consensus forming

Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026?14%

Cilia Flores released from custody by January 9, 2026?1%

Cilia Flores released from custody by January 31, 2026?1%

Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by March 31?6%

Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by November 30?1%

Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31?1%

Maine Democratic Senate Primary Winner

Balanced market conditions

Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?67%

Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?33%

Will Dan Kleban be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?1%

Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026?3%

Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela in 2025?1%

Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (15% vs 8%)

Will Trump visit China by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will Trump visit China by April 30?86%

Will Trump visit China by March 31?2%

Will Trump visit China by October 31?1%

French election called by...?

Strong consensus forming

French election called by June 30, 2026?12%

French election called by December 31?1%

French election called by September 15?1%

Japan General Election Winner?

Balanced market conditions

Will the Liberal Democratic Party win the most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?99%

Will the Democratic Party for the People win the most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?1%

Will Sanseitō win the most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?1%

US strike on Cuba by...?

Strong consensus forming

US strike on Cuba by December 31?26%

US strike on Cuba by March 31?8%

US strike on Cuba by January 31?1%

Will Israel strike Lebanon on...?

Strong consensus forming

Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 2, 2026?99%

Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 1, 2026?99%

Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 5, 2026?99%

US x Iran diplomatic meeting in person by...?

Strong consensus forming

US x Iran meeting by February 13, 2026?30%

US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026?4%

SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by...?

Strong consensus forming

SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by December 31, 2026?47%

SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by July 31, 2026? 20%

Odds Trump acquires Greenland before 2027 hit __ by March 31?

Balanced market conditions

Odds Trump acquires Greenland before 2027 hit 30% by March 31?4%

Odds Trump acquires Greenland before 2027 hit 50% by March 31?2%

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Crowd vs Money

Crowd higher (35% vs 32%)

How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?37%

Will Israel strike 2 countries in 2026?16%

Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026?14%

Insurrection Act invoked by...?

Strong consensus forming

Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?36%

Insurrection Act invoked by June 30?16%

Insurrection Act invoked by March 31?8%

Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Balanced market conditions

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?51%

Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?32%

Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel?4%

2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Winner

Balanced market conditions

Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election62%

Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election26%

Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election6%

Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31?

Balanced market conditions

Crowd vs Money

Crowd higher (11% vs 7%)