Today's Signal

António José Seguro

Updated: 2 hours ago

Traders currently favor António José Seguro at 56%, with António José Seguro trailing.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~2 days
Total Volume
$1.3M
24h Change
+$34K
Active Markets
6
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
António José Seguro
✦ Surprise
António José Seguro
👥 People watching
●●●●●
High
💵 Money behind it
●●●●●
Low
Quietly backed
António José Seguro
23%
#2 António José Seguro
👥 People watching
●●●●●
Medium
💵 Money behind it
●●●●●
Medium
Quietly backed
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking portugal presidential election margin of victory: second round. Each team/candidate has their own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on teams they believe will win, or NO on teams they think will lose. The outcome will be determined based on official game results and championship announcements.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on team performance, injuries, playoff standings, odds movements, betting line shifts, and expert analysis. Trading volume of $1.3M shows significant market interest with 71 active participants.

This page tracks market sentiment, not official polls or endorsements.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market — you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓Second-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on February 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the results of the election aren’t known by June 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Portuguese government, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) https://www.cne.pt/.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Dec 10, 2025
Market Launch
Market opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Feb 8, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

As of the latest prediction market data, Will António José Seguro win the second round by 30–40%? leads with approximately 56% probability. These odds reflect market sentiment, not polls or official projections.
Each candidate market is a separate YES/NO contract. You can buy YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them. Market inefficiencies, fees, and the possibility of unlisted candidates mean probabilities rarely sum to exactly 100%.
Prices reflect current market belief based on where traders are putting their money. A 28% price means the market currently believes there's a 28% chance of that outcome. Use the Crowd vs Money signals to understand how attention differs from conviction.
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Related Markets

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Will António José Seguro win the second round by 30–40%?56%$71KTrade
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 40–50%?23%$115KTrade
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 20–30%?17%$214KTrade
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 10–20%?3%$290KTrade
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 0–10%?1%$269KTrade
Will António José Seguro win the second round by at least 50%?1%$172KTrade
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