World · Geopolitics

US forces enter Venezuela again by...?LIVE

Traders believe June 30 is most likely at 57%, ahead of January 31 at 0%, though the outcome is not locked in. $1.3M traded -- only $4K moved in the last 24 hours with 36 days remaining. Trading is quiet, suggesting the market is waiting for new information.

See how prediction markets are pricing the race ↓

Today's Signal

June 30

Updated: 2 hours ago

Traders currently favor June 30 at 57%, with January 31 trailing.

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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon

~36 days

Total Volume

$1.3M

24h Change

+$34K

Active Markets

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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal

Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?

More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.

#1 June 30

57%

Quietly backed

People watching

Medium

Money behind it

High

Includes both YES and NO positions
Not investment advice
Visuals are comparative, not exact

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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking us forces enter venezuela again by.... Each outcome has its own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on outcomes they believe will happen, or NO on outcomes they think won't. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible sources.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on official announcements, news developments, and expert analysis. Trading volume of $1.3M shows significant market interest with 1,311 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).

2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.

3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.

4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
✓This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

How accurate is Polymarket? See how markets compare to polls →

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Updates & analysis

Key dates and timeline
Expert takes and analysis
Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Jan 3, 2026

Event Launch

Event opened and became active.

Ongoing

Active Trading

Market is live with continuous price updates.

Jun 30, 2026

Resolution Date

Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who is currently leading in US forces enter Venezuela again by...?

June 30 leads at 57%, with January 31 at 0% -- a commanding 57-point lead 36 days out. $1.3M has traded across 1,311 positions with 36 days until resolution.

How much money is behind these odds?

$1.3M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. Volume tends to accelerate as resolution approaches and traders adjust positions.

How do I read these odds?

Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. June 30's 57% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 57% chance of that outcome -- competitive but uncertain. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.

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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the US forces enter Venezuela again by...? event.

Candidate Market	Yes %	Liquidity
June 30	57%	$227K	View market
January 31	0%	$569K	View market
January 10	0%	$511K	View market
March 31	0%	$5K	View market

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