Today's Signal

Elon and DOGE cut less than $50b in federal spending in 2025?

Updated: 2 hours ago

The market strongly favors Elon and DOGE cut less than $50b in federal spending in 2025? at 94%, with a commanding lead over the field.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~-36 days
Total Volume
$2.5M
24h Change
+$64K
Active Markets
6
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
Elon and DOGE cut less than $50b in federal spending in 2025?
94%
#1 Elon and DOGE cut less than $50b in federal spending in 2025?
👥 People watching
●●●●●
High
💵 Money behind it
●●●●●
High
Quietly backed
Elon and DOGE cut
2%
#2 Elon and DOGE cut
👥 People watching
●●●●●
Low
💵 Money behind it
●●●●●
High
Quietly backed
Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025?
✦ Surprise
Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025?
👥 People watching
●●●●●
Low
💵 Money behind it
●●●●●
High
Quietly backed
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking how much spending will doge cut in 2025. Each team/candidate has their own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on teams they believe will win, or NO on teams they think will lose. The outcome will be determined based on official game results and championship announcements.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on team performance, injuries, playoff standings, odds movements, betting line shifts, and expert analysis. Trading volume of $2.5M shows significant market interest with 1,416 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market — you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve based on federal government current expenditures as reported by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, displayed here https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND. This market will resolve to the amount federal government current expenditures decrease by between the Q4 2024 report and the Q4 2025 report. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The difference will be calculated as the Q4 2024 value minus the Q4 2025 value. The figures will be based on the initial Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 values as reported by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank. Revisions made to these figures will not be considered, only the values reported in the initial reports will be used. The figures will be based on the Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 values as reported by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank as soon as the data for Q4 2025 becomes available, regardless of whether later revisions are made. This market's resolution source is the Federal Government: Current Expenditures chart maintained by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, displayed here https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Nov 1, 2025
Market Launch
Market opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Dec 31, 2025
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

As of the latest prediction market data, Will Elon and DOGE cut less than $50b in federal spending in 2025? leads with approximately 94% probability. These odds reflect market sentiment, not polls or official projections.
Each candidate market is a separate YES/NO contract. You can buy YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them. Market inefficiencies, fees, and the possibility of unlisted candidates mean probabilities rarely sum to exactly 100%.
Prices reflect current market belief based on where traders are putting their money. A 28% price means the market currently believes there's a 28% chance of that outcome. Use the Crowd vs Money signals to understand how attention differs from conviction.
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