Today's Signal
Ken Paxton
Updated: 47d ago
The market strongly leans toward Ken Paxton at 70%, though outcomes remain uncertain.
0%
Updates & analysis
- Key dates and timeline
- Expert takes and analysis
- Frequently asked questions
Timeline & Key Updates
Jul 10, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
May 26, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.
Analyst & Expert Takes
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is currently leading in Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner?
Ken Paxton leads at 62%, with John Cornyn at 39% -- a commanding 23-point lead 11 days out. $16.1M has traded across 1 positions with 11 days until resolution.
How much money is behind these odds?
$16.1M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. With resolution near, traders are locking in final positions based on latest information.
How do I read these odds?
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Ken Paxton's 62% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 62% chance of that outcome -- more likely than not. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
Go deeper
Markets are live and updating as the race evolves.