Today's Signal

Ken Paxton

Updated: 47d ago

The market strongly leans toward Ken Paxton at 70%, though outcomes remain uncertain.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~11 days
Total Volume
$16.1M
24h Change
+$420K
Active Markets
2
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Ken Paxton
#1 Ken Paxton
62%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Medium
Money behind it
Medium
John Cornyn
#2 John Cornyn
39%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Medium
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This event tracks who will win the election. It matters because of material impact on outcomes and policy platform control. Market prices tend to move when there are primary sources and credible reporting, polling and turnout indicators.

This page tracks market sentiment, not official polls or endorsements.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Texas. If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

How accurate is Polymarket? See how markets compare to polls →

  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Jul 10, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
May 26, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

Ken Paxton leads at 62%, with John Cornyn at 39% -- a commanding 23-point lead 11 days out. $16.1M has traded across 1 positions with 11 days until resolution.
$16.1M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. With resolution near, traders are locking in final positions based on latest information.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Ken Paxton's 62% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 62% chance of that outcome -- more likely than not. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?62%-View market
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?39%-View market
Will Dawn Buckingham win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?0%-View market
Will Beth Van Duyne win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?0%-View market
Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?0%-View market
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