Today's Signal

Ken Paxton

Updated: 2 hours ago

The market strongly favors Ken Paxton at 100%, with a commanding lead over the field.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~-4 days
Total Volume
$18.0M
24h Change
+$468K
Active Markets
5
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Ken Paxton
#1 Ken Paxton
100%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
High
Money behind it
High
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking texas republican senate primary winner. Each candidate has their own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on candidates they believe will win, or NO on candidates they think will lose. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible reporting.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on polling data, endorsements, fundraising numbers, debates, and major political developments. Trading volume of $18.0M shows significant market interest with 18,007 active participants.

This page tracks market sentiment, not official polls or endorsements.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Texas. If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

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  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Mar 27, 2026
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
May 26, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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Frequently Asked Questions

Ken Paxton leads at 100%, with Beth Van Duyne at 0% -- a commanding 100-point lead resolving soon. $18.0M has traded across 18,007 positions with 0 days until resolution.
$18.0M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. With resolution near, traders are locking in final positions based on latest information.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Ken Paxton's 100% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 100% chance of that outcome -- extremely likely to occur. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Ken Paxton100%$5465KView market
Beth Van Duyne0%$5598KView market
John Cornyn0%$4111KView market
Wesley Hunt0%$1862KView market
Dawn Buckingham0%$971KView market
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Accuracy

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Guide

How to read prediction market odds on elections

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Markets are live and updating as the race evolves.

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