Today's Signal

Benjamin Netanyahu

Updated: 2 hours ago

No clear favorite yet-Benjamin Netanyahu leads at 40% with Naftali Bennett close at 38%, signaling a competitive race.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~236 days
Total Volume
$7.5M
24h Change
+$195K
Active Markets
7
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Benjamin Netanyahu
#1 Benjamin Netanyahu
40%
Widely followed
People watching
Medium
Money behind it
Low
Naftali Bennett
#2 Naftali Bennett
38%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking who will be the next prime minister of israel after the next election. Each candidate has their own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on candidates they believe will win, or NO on candidates they think will lose. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible reporting.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on polling data, endorsements, fundraising numbers, debates, and major political developments. Trading volume of $7.5M shows significant market interest with 701 active participants.

This page tracks market sentiment, not official polls or endorsements.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

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  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Nov 15, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Dec 31, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

Benjamin Netanyahu leads at 40%, with Naftali Bennett at 38% -- an unusually tight race -- only 2% separates them 8 months out. $7.5M has traded across 701 positions with 236 days until resolution.
$7.5M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. At this stage, volume reflects ongoing reassessment as new information enters the market.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Benjamin Netanyahu's 40% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 40% chance of that outcome -- competitive but uncertain. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?40%-View market
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?38%-View market
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?13%-View market
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?6%-View market
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel?1%-View market
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel?1%-View market
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