Today's Signal

Benjamin Netanyahu

Updated: 2h ago

Benjamin Netanyahu is ahead at 48% with Naftali Bennett at 24%, but the race is far from settled.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~281 days
Total Volume
$2.7M
24h Change
+$69K
Active Markets
12
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Moneyshows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Benjamin Netanyahu
#1 Benjamin Netanyahu
46%
Widely followed
People watching
Medium
Money behind it
Low
Naftali Bennett
#2 Naftali Bennett
24%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This event tracks Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? (between Nov 14, 2025 and Dec 31, 2026). It matters because of material impact on outcomes. Market prices tend to move when there are primary sources and credible reporting, deadline proximity and updates.

This page tracks market sentiment, not official polls or endorsements.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Nov 15, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Dec 31, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

Benjamin Netanyahu leads at 46%, with Naftali Bennett at 24% -- a commanding 22-point lead 9 months out. $2.7M has traded across 441 positions with 281 days until resolution.
$2.7M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. At this stage, volume reflects ongoing reassessment as new information enters the market.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Benjamin Netanyahu's 46% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 46% chance of that outcome -- competitive but uncertain. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?46%-View market
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?24%-View market
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?14%-View market
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel?3%-View market
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?3%-View market
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?2%-View market
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