Today's Signal

Kevin Warsh

Updated: 2 hours ago

The market strongly favors Kevin Warsh at 100%, with a commanding lead over the field.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~206 days
Total Volume
$617.3M
24h Change
+$16051K
Active Markets
25
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Kevin Warsh
#1 Kevin Warsh
100%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
High
Money behind it
High
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

**What This Event Is About** This event tracks who Donald Trump will formally nominate to be the leader of the U.S. central bank by the end of 2026. It matters because the person chosen will help set key interest-rate decisions, shape trust in the institution, and influence how markets and the public view economic leadership. Market prices tend to move when there are official announcements, major news stories about who is being considered, shifts in Senate politics, or changes in expectations about future interest rates.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve according to the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

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  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Nov 1, 2026
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Dec 31, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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Frequently Asked Questions

Kevin Warsh leads at 100%, with Judy Shelton at 0% -- a commanding 100-point lead 7 months out. $617.3M has traded across 617,333 positions with 206 days until resolution.
$617.3M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. At this stage, volume reflects ongoing reassessment as new information enters the market.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Kevin Warsh's 100% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 100% chance of that outcome -- extremely likely to occur. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Kevin Warsh100%$59907KView market
Judy Shelton0%$127684KView market
Scott Bessent0%$38741KView market
Kevin Hassett0%$36123KView market
Rick Rieder0%$35604KView market
Christopher Waller0%$29230KView market
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