Today's Signal

Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?

Updated: 2 hours ago

The market strongly favors Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? at 95%, with a commanding lead over the field.
0%
📊

Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~328 days
Total Volume
$411.2M
24h Change
+$10692K
Active Markets
4
⚡

Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
95%
#1 Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
👥 People watching
●●●●●
High
💵 Money behind it
●●●●●
High
Attention and money aligned
Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?
8%
#2 Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?
👥 People watching
●●●●●
Low
💵 Money behind it
●●●●●
Low
Attention and money aligned
Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?
✦ Surprise
Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?
👥 People watching
●●●●●
Low
💵 Money behind it
●●●●●
High
Quietly backed
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
📚

Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking who will trump nominate as fed chair. Each team/candidate has their own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on teams they believe will win, or NO on teams they think will lose. The outcome will be determined based on official game results and championship announcements.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on team performance, injuries, playoff standings, odds movements, betting line shifts, and expert analysis. Trading volume of $411.2M shows significant market interest with 31,768 active participants.

This page tracks market sentiment, not official polls or endorsements.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market — you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve according to the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Feb 6, 2026
Market Launch
Market opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Dec 31, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

💭
No analyst takes yet

Be the first to share your analysis on this market.

✍️ Submit Your Take

Frequently Asked Questions

As of the latest prediction market data, Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? leads with approximately 95% probability. These odds reflect market sentiment, not polls or official projections.
Each candidate market is a separate YES/NO contract. You can buy YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them. Market inefficiencies, fees, and the possibility of unlisted candidates mean probabilities rarely sum to exactly 100%.
Prices reflect current market belief based on where traders are putting their money. A 28% price means the market currently believes there's a 28% chance of that outcome. Use the Crowd vs Money signals to understand how attention differs from conviction.
📈

Related Markets

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?95%$31.8MTrade
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?8%—Trade
archWill Trump nominate James Bullard as the next Fed chair?4%$5KTrade
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?3%$55.2MTrade
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?0%$23.4MTrade
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?0%$17.6MTrade
Trade on Polymarket →View All Nominee Markets

Markets are live and updating as the race evolves.

Trade on PolymarketCompare Platforms