Today's Signal

Abelardo de la Espriella

Updated: 2 hours ago

The market strongly favors Abelardo de la Espriella at 99%, with a commanding lead over the field.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~-1 days
Total Volume
$43.7M
24h Change
+$1136K
Active Markets
19
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Abelardo de la Espriella
#1 Abelardo de la Espriella
99%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Medium
Iván Cepeda Castro
#2 Iván Cepeda Castro
1%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Medium
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking colombia presidential election. Each candidate has their own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on candidates they believe will win, or NO on candidates they think will lose. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible reporting.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on polling data, endorsements, fundraising numbers, debates, and major political developments. Trading volume of $43.7M shows significant market interest with 43,702 active participants.

This page tracks market sentiment, not official polls or endorsements.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) https://registraduria.gov.co.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

How accurate is Polymarket? See how markets compare to polls →

  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Apr 22, 2026
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Jun 21, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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Frequently Asked Questions

Abelardo de la Espriella leads at 99%, with Iván Cepeda Castro at 1% -- a commanding 98-point lead resolving soon. $43.7M has traded across 43,702 positions with 0 days until resolution.
$43.7M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. With resolution near, traders are locking in final positions based on latest information.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Abelardo de la Espriella's 99% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 99% chance of that outcome -- extremely likely to occur. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Colombia Presidential Election event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Abelardo de la Espriella99%$6489KView market
Iván Cepeda Castro1%$7047KView market
Gustavo Bolívar (HC)0%$5797KView market
Vicky Dávila (IND)0%$3025KView market
Paloma Valencia0%$2870KView market
Mauricio Cárdenas0%$2527KView market
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