Today's Signal

Candidate M

Updated: 2h ago

No clear favorite yet-Candidate M leads at 50% with Paloma Valencia close at 42%, signaling a competitive race.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~89 days
Total Volume
$8.0M
24h Change
+$207K
Active Markets
7
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Moneyshows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Candidate M
#1 Candidate M
50%
Widely followed
People watching
Medium
Money behind it
Low
Iván Cepeda Castro
#2 Iván Cepeda Castro
42%
Widely followed
People watching
Medium
Money behind it
Low
Sergio Fajardo (DC)
Sergio Fajardo (DC)✦ Surprise
1%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This event tracks who will win the election in Colombia. It matters because the winner will have control over important policies, make key appointments, and decide how to allocate budgets, which can have a significant impact on the country. Market prices tend to move when there are updates from reliable news sources, changes in polling numbers, or major events like debates or endorsements. Prices may also shift due to unexpected news shocks or developments in the election process.

This page tracks market sentiment, not official polls or endorsements.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) https://registraduria.gov.co.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Jul 29, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Jun 21, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

Candidate M leads at 50%, with Iván Cepeda Castro at 42% -- a tight race, only 8% separates them 89 days out. $8.0M has traded across 1 positions with 89 days until resolution.
$8.0M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. Volume tends to accelerate as resolution approaches and traders adjust positions.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Candidate M's 50% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 50% chance of that outcome -- competitive but uncertain. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Colombia Presidential Election event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will Candidate M win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?50%-View market
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?42%-View market
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?41%-View market
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?14%-View market
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?1%-View market
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?1%-View market
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