Today's Signal

Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire

Updated: 2 hours ago

No clear favorite yet — Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire leads at 100% with Drake releases Iceman close at 100%, signaling a competitive race.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~39 days
Total Volume
$22.9M
24h Change
+$594K
Active Markets
10
⚡

Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire
#1 Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire
100%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
Drake releases Iceman
#2 Drake releases Iceman
100%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
New Playboi Carti Album
New Playboi Carti Album ✦ Surprise
54%
Widely followed
People watching
Medium
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking what will happen before gta vi. Each outcome has its own separate YES/NO market. Traders can position themselves based on their expectations. The outcome will be determined based on official economic data releases and central bank announcements.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on economic data releases, central bank communications, inflation reports, and employment figures. Trading volume of $22.9M shows significant market interest with 22,854 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This is a market on predicting events that will occur before the release of Grand Theft Auto VI.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

How accurate is Polymarket? See how markets compare to polls →

  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Jun 1, 2026
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Jul 31, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire leads at 100%, with Drake releases Iceman at 100% -- an unusually tight race -- only 0% separates them 39 days out. $22.9M has traded across 22,854 positions with 39 days until resolution.
$22.9M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. Volume tends to accelerate as resolution approaches and traders adjust positions.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire's 100% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 100% chance of that outcome -- extremely likely to occur. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the What will happen before GTA VI? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire100%$1676KView market
Drake releases Iceman100%$185KView market
New Playboi Carti Album 54%$743KView market
GPT-6 released53%$663KView market
New Rihanna Album52%$835KView market
China invades Taiwan 51%$1875KView market
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