Today's Signal

Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire

Updated: 2 hours ago

No clear favorite yet-Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire leads at 100% with Drake releases Iceman close at 100%, signaling a competitive race.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~76 days
Total Volume
$22.0M
24h Change
+$571K
Active Markets
9
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire
#1 Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire
100%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
Drake releases Iceman
#2 Drake releases Iceman
100%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
GPT-6 released
GPT-6 released✦ Surprise
66%
Widely followed
People watching
Medium
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking what will happen before gta vi. Each outcome has its own separate YES/NO market. Traders can position themselves based on their expectations. The outcome will be determined based on official economic data releases and central bank announcements.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on economic data releases, central bank communications, inflation reports, and employment figures. Trading volume of $22.0M shows significant market interest with 8,381 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve to "Yes" if if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count. The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive. Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution for a ceasefire will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

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  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

May 2, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Jul 31, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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Frequently Asked Questions

Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire leads at 100%, with Drake releases Iceman at 100% -- an unusually tight race -- only 0% separates them 76 days out. $22.0M has traded across 8,381 positions with 76 days until resolution.
$22.0M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. Volume tends to accelerate as resolution approaches and traders adjust positions.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire's 100% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 100% chance of that outcome -- extremely likely to occur. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the What will happen before GTA VI? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?100%-View market
Will Drake release Iceman before GTA VI?100%-View market
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?66%-View market
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?54%-View market
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?53%-View market
Trump out as President before GTA VI?51%-View market
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