Today's Signal

February 28

Updated: 2 hours ago

No clear favorite yet — February 28 leads at 100% with March 31 close at 100%, signaling a competitive race.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~20 days
Total Volume
$529.0M
24h Change
+$13755K
Active Markets
64
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
February 28
#1 February 28
100%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Medium
March 31
#2 March 31
100%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
March 1
March 1✦ Surprise
100%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This event tracks whether a military strike occurs by June 30, 2026. It matters because regional stability and the risk of escalation could affect the lives of millions of people, impact global economic markets, and shift the balance of power in the region. Market prices tend to move when there are reports of military movements or statements, diplomatic developments, or verified incidents of conflict.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

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  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

May 1, 2026
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Jun 30, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

February 28 leads at 100%, with March 31 at 100% -- an unusually tight race -- only 0% separates them 20 days out. $529.0M has traded across 529,033 positions with 20 days until resolution.
$529.0M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. With resolution near, traders are locking in final positions based on latest information.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. February 28's 100% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 100% chance of that outcome -- extremely likely to occur. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the US strikes Iran by...? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
February 28100%$89653KView market
March 31100%$22213KView market
June 30100%$9193KView market
March 1100%$8094KView market
March 15100%$6643KView market
March 2100%$3813KView market
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