Today's Signal

Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people?

Updated: 2 hours ago

The market strongly favors Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people? at 89%, with a commanding lead over the field.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~-36 days
Total Volume
$5.4M
24h Change
+$142K
Active Markets
4
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people?
89%
#1 Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people?
👥 People watching
●●●●●
High
💵 Money behind it
●●●●●
High
Attention and money aligned
Trump deport less than 250,000?
5%
#2 Trump deport less than 250,000?
👥 People watching
●●●●●
Low
💵 Money behind it
●●●●●
High
Quietly backed
Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people?
✦ Surprise
Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people?
👥 People watching
●●●●●
Low
💵 Money behind it
●●●●●
Medium
Quietly backed
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking how many people will trump deport in 2025. Each team/candidate has their own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on teams they believe will win, or NO on teams they think will lose. The outcome will be determined based on official game results and championship announcements.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on team performance, injuries, playoff standings, odds movements, betting line shifts, and expert analysis. Trading volume of $5.4M shows significant market interest with 1,057 active participants.

This page tracks market sentiment, not official polls or endorsements.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market — you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf). This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) removes less than 250,000 non citizens in the 2025 fiscal year. Otherwise, this market ill resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Nov 1, 2025
Market Launch
Market opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Dec 31, 2025
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

As of the latest prediction market data, Will Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people? leads with approximately 89% probability. These odds reflect market sentiment, not polls or official projections.
Each candidate market is a separate YES/NO contract. You can buy YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them. Market inefficiencies, fees, and the possibility of unlisted candidates mean probabilities rarely sum to exactly 100%.
Prices reflect current market belief based on where traders are putting their money. A 28% price means the market currently believes there's a 28% chance of that outcome. Use the Crowd vs Money signals to understand how attention differs from conviction.
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Related Markets

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people?89%$1.6MTrade
Will Trump deport less than 250,000?5%$1.1MTrade
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people?4%$479KTrade
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people?1%$472KTrade
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people?0%$457KTrade
Will Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people?0%$327KTrade
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