Today's Signal

Chong Won-oh

Updated: 2 hours ago

The market strongly favors Chong Won-oh at 81%, with a commanding lead over the field.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~17 days
Total Volume
$39.8M
24h Change
+$1035K
Active Markets
2
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Chong Won-oh
#1 Chong Won-oh
81%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
Oh Se-hoon
#2 Oh Se-hoon
20%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Medium
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking 2026 seoul mayoral election winner. Each candidate has their own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on candidates they believe will win, or NO on candidates they think will lose. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible reporting.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on polling data, endorsements, fundraising numbers, debates, and major political developments. Trading volume of $39.8M shows significant market interest with 1,650 active participants.

This page tracks market sentiment, not official polls or endorsements.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓The 2026 Seoul mayoral election is scheduled to take place on June 3, 2026 to elect the next mayor of Seoul. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. If the result of this election isn't known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

How accurate is Polymarket? See how markets compare to polls →

  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Nov 13, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Jun 3, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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Frequently Asked Questions

Chong Won-oh leads at 81%, with Oh Se-hoon at 20% -- a commanding 61-point lead 17 days out. $39.8M has traded across 1,650 positions with 17 days until resolution.
$39.8M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. With resolution near, traders are locking in final positions based on latest information.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Chong Won-oh's 81% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 81% chance of that outcome -- extremely likely to occur. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Winner event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election81%-View market
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election20%-View market
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election0%-View market
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election0%-View market
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election0%-View market
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election0%-View market
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Accuracy

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Guide

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Markets are live and updating as the race evolves.

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