Today's Signal

Chong Won-oh

Updated: 5h ago

The market strongly leans toward Chong Won-oh at 80%, though outcomes remain uncertain.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~71 days
Total Volume
$7.0M
24h Change
+$183K
Active Markets
3
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Moneyshows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Chong Won-oh
#1 Chong Won-oh
79%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
Oh Se-hoon
#2 Oh Se-hoon
13%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Medium
Park Ju-min
Park Ju-min✦ Surprise
7%
Limited activity
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking 2026 seoul mayoral election winner. Each candidate has their own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on candidates they believe will win, or NO on candidates they think will lose. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible reporting.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on polling data, endorsements, fundraising numbers, debates, and major political developments. Trading volume of $7.0M shows significant market interest with 538 active participants.

This page tracks market sentiment, not official polls or endorsements.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓The 2026 Seoul mayoral election is scheduled to take place on June 3, 2026 to elect the next mayor of Seoul. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. If the result of this election isn't known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Nov 13, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Jun 3, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

Chong Won-oh leads at 79%, with Oh Se-hoon at 13% -- a commanding 66-point lead 71 days out. $7.0M has traded across 538 positions with 71 days until resolution.
$7.0M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. Volume tends to accelerate as resolution approaches and traders adjust positions.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Chong Won-oh's 79% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 79% chance of that outcome -- more likely than not. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Winner event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election79%-View market
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election13%-View market
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election7%-View market
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election0%-View market
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election0%-View market
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election0%-View market
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