Today's Signal

United Russia (ER)

Updated: 2h ago

The market strongly leans toward United Russia (ER) at 71%, though outcomes remain uncertain.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~189 days
Total Volume
$4.3M
24h Change
+$112K
Active Markets
5
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Moneyshows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
United Russia (ER)
#1 United Russia (ER)
71%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
New People (NL)
#2 New People (NL)
21%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)✦ Surprise
7%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Medium
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This event tracks Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election? (between Jan 7, 2026 and Sep 30, 2026). It matters because of material impact on outcomes. Market prices tend to move when there are primary sources and credible reporting, deadline proximity and updates.

This page tracks market sentiment, not official polls or endorsements.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Jan 7, 2026
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Sep 30, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

United Russia (ER) leads at 71%, with New People (NL) at 21% -- a commanding 50-point lead 6 months out. $4.3M has traded across 243 positions with 189 days until resolution.
$4.3M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. At this stage, volume reflects ongoing reassessment as new information enters the market.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. United Russia (ER)'s 71% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 71% chance of that outcome -- more likely than not. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?71%-View market
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?21%-View market
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?7%-View market
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?2%-View market
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?1%-View market
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?0%-View market
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