Today's Signal

United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Updated: 2 hours ago

The market strongly favors United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? at 71%, with a commanding lead over the field.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~236 days
Total Volume
$1.6M
24h Change
+$42K
Active Markets
4
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
71%
#1 United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
👥 People watching
●●●●●
High
💵 Money behind it
●●●●●
High
Attention and money aligned
New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
22%
#2 New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
👥 People watching
●●●●●
Low
💵 Money behind it
●●●●●
Medium
Quietly backed
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
✦ Surprise
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
👥 People watching
●●●●●
Low
💵 Money behind it
●●●●●
Medium
Quietly backed
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking which party will gain most seats in russian parliamentary election. Each team/candidate has their own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on teams they believe will win, or NO on teams they think will lose. The outcome will be determined based on official game results and championship announcements.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on team performance, injuries, playoff standings, odds movements, betting line shifts, and expert analysis. Trading volume of $1.6M shows significant market interest with 141 active participants.

This page tracks market sentiment, not official polls or endorsements.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market — you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Feb 6, 2026
Market Launch
Market opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Sep 30, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

As of the latest prediction market data, Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? leads with approximately 71% probability. These odds reflect market sentiment, not polls or official projections.
Each candidate market is a separate YES/NO contract. You can buy YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them. Market inefficiencies, fees, and the possibility of unlisted candidates mean probabilities rarely sum to exactly 100%.
Prices reflect current market belief based on where traders are putting their money. A 28% price means the market currently believes there's a 28% chance of that outcome. Use the Crowd vs Money signals to understand how attention differs from conviction.
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Related Markets

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?71%$724KTrade
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?22%$199KTrade
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?6%$134KTrade
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?1%$141KTrade
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?0%$137KTrade
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?0%$164KTrade
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